Outside chance of the snow risk this Saturday extending quite a long way south.

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I always keep a keen eye on solar activity or the lack of it. The sun has been exceptionally quiet so far this year, with early onset of the solar minimum. I am convinced that solar activity is a key driver in both regional climate variations and in earthquake/volcanic activity and I believe we are seeing both effects currently. Papers:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/JB094iB12p17371

The above paper draws a link between solar minimum and increased vulcanicity (earthquakes and volcanoes).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123212001002

The climate link is more tenuous, but ice core studies and carbon-14 analysis do indicate that north west Europe in particular is impacted by low solar activity, as it appears that NAO signatures are more prevalent during such a solar period.

I await the coming winter with interest.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_384_1.png 

6 weeks time this chart would be interesting! Potential

Small depression in SW approaches developing for Saturday so a wet afternoon for S England? Detail still varying from run to run on all models, but since they weren't even thinking about it a few days ago, I take this as a sign that it will be there and stronger than currently forecast.

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Im in the Lakes over the weekend so may see a flake or two on the tops.......... If my gammy leg can get me that far that is. 

Fog will be the biggest problem this October - think there could be some very chilly days in the prone spots

Some amazing warmth around in the models at the moment . If the Gfs 12z comes off we'd be looking at a record breaking cet for October.  

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I don’t think it will be quite cold enough for any wintriness on Sunday but there is still a chance for some very mild conditions in FI beyond then.

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The unusually blocked extended season continues. Now into crisis level drought across much of France, with cattle farmers going out of business, although Britain has wetted up a little since July.

Several of tonight’s runs have zero rain throughout the period across central France, and no more than 10mm over much of central and southern England.

Warm dry Octobers and cold snowy winters... I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see some more cold blocking this winter.

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Those of us near to France (Southern England)   are still very dry.  This was rammed home to me  this afternoon when looking at   some excavations being dug for a new house in the village - bone dry   top to bottom of the trenches !

 

 

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Agreed. Some very benign, quiet and potentially warm October weather on the menu mid range if the current output is to be believed.

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The wae depression in the channel really winds itself up tomorrow ( Sat 6th) according to the fax charts and it looks as if the SE, from Dorset eastwards, could have a really wet afternoon. MetO forecasts are for significantly more rain from this system than they were proposing earlier.

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A fairly protracted SE/Southern wind influence from GEFS suite still being modelled from next week keeping things warm and settled for most of UK...as per usual Ireland and W.Scotland more unsettled and windier...hopefully we'll see a spell of much needed rain over the weekend...

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Meanwhile, the only outcome which I can see from the latest model output is just a continuation of the same old borefest which we have been seeing here until now where our weather is dominated by grey skies for most of the time with very little in the way of either rain or sunshine (which quite frankly, I've got a bit fed up with now).

From what I am seeing, most of the rain which doesn't just stay well to the south of here in the short to medium term outlook, is staying to the north and west of here with very little of that actually reaching here in the east of Scotland. Because of that, all I can see for here is a very dry outlook indeed which means that not only are we failing to make up the rainfall deficit from the dry summer which we had, but that deficit just continues to mount up even further.

Given the latest forecasts for the south of England at the weekend in particular, it would not therefore surprise me if the SE of Scotland in particular, ended up being the driest part of the UK this month.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The warm core in Leslie showing up nicely.

Indian Summer in mid October!

 

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http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018100612/84-777UK.GIF?06-12 

No wonder there are three days of warnings out for the region.

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Amazing charts for mid-October, with winds sourced all the way from North Africa! The GFS seems to be hinting at the possibility of 25C under sunny skies next Saturday, which would be the 13th. Does anybody know what the latest 25C on record is?

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18th October at 25.9C. Some doubt about that figure as it was well above anything else in the area. There was a fohn effect.

Other than the figure above there has never been a 25C recorded after 13 October. 25.3C was recorded on 13 October in 2001.

The 18th:

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php

 

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Cheers both, so we won't see the latest 25C on record, but there's certainly a chance for one or two date records to go.

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That really is an impressive east west split in terms of rainfall in the next few days.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/accumulated-precipitation/20181010-0300z.html 

220mm in the west and about 5mm around here.

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Those mountains are more like a 4,000ft dam wall.

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A mild week with Scotland bearing the brunt of the moist SW-lies. Later this week the interest is in Friday's depression. Fax charts are bullish about bringing the rain across the Uk, GFS has the centre standing further off to the west.

EDIT: ECM 0z has Leslie making landfall in Portugal on Sunday and then running up the coast. A really anomalous storm - is it unprecedented? Certainly creating model headaches.

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Aberdeen is one of the drier places in the UK and iirc the sunniest of Scotlands cities, receives about a 3rd less rain than many south coast resorts. The reason is those mountains to the west of the city. You can often watch weather fronts dry out on rain radars as they reach the mountains.

 

As we know though, that still usually isn't enough to satisfy a certain TWO form member from there with the name of Richard.

On a more serious note though, perhaps this might come as a surprise because according to that article, it is actually Edinburgh which is the driest city in Scotland on average closely followed by Dundee with both Edinburgh and Dundee each having the joint lowest average number of official rain days every year. Not surprisingly though, Glasgow is listed as the wettest city in Scotland in that report.

There isn't any info there for Inverness, Perth or Stirling which are the three other cities in Scotland apart from the big four cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee (which I have listed here in population order). Out of those four biggest cities which I have just listed listed, that would actually place Aberdeen as the second wettest of those four cities.

As for Edinburgh being the driest city, that has been borne out during this month so far by the fact that just 2.8 mm of rain has fallen at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during this month so far, which I have seen to be far less than anything which has been reported by every single member so far on this month's Precipitation Watch thread.

 

 

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