Nice 6z so far 

This will do 

Cold air engulfs the UK , cant grumble at this mornings output 

6z GFS is a peach for cold weather fans - kills the Canadian vortex stone cold dead and has everything in place to put Europe into the freezer.

By Saturday 26th November, Russia is getting one of its period blasts of true Siberian cold if GFS is correct - Artic super cold displaced from its usual home over Canada/Greenland to Asia.

Almost getting into proper Beast from the East territory on this run...

It would be nice to think that once the PV has dropped into Asia, it will stay there for the duration.

But still predominantly dry away from the east coast/far south-east where some light snow covers possible....

Yes, time to return to the MO thread for another season

Shows the split in the PV very nicely.

The GFS run then goes on to poleaxe the Canadian PV fragment until it no longer exists.

surely everyone knows by now get the cold in and precipitation will pop up even at short notice!!

Is this the start of another "winter of discontent"

Indeed Neil, end trending colder 

Blocking (high pressure) to the north east of the UK will expose the UK to a colder easterly coming off the continent for the latter part of this month... quieter conditions all round. pic.twitter.com/OnbPBniWQe

— James Warner (@MetmanJames) November 14, 2018

Though all models support a regime change to colder easterlies (due to blocking), there are some discrepancies to how cold it will get by next week. This is due to sensitivities in the precise configuration of where blocking occurs/how strong, which changes wind source/strength pic.twitter.com/Jvl8RKIzHv

— James Warner (@MetmanJames) November 14, 2018

predominantly dry is the one consistent theme that most of the recent runs have thrown up....irrespective of how cold it might get. I did mention the chance of snow by the way....

Greenland almost covered by super-552 at 500mb: a criterion someone (maybe Q? Correct me...) used to predict seriously blocked and, in winter, bitterly cold weather over W Europe:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_177_mslp500.png?cb=60

You did not mention grey, cool and drizzly in Aberdeen 

The cool and blocked picture continues on the 12z GFS op run so far.

Indeed. In olden days this place would be buzzing like a roomful of toddlers at a Christmas party. Years of the harsh reality that is model uncertainty has tempered this to an appreciative simmer 😉

Astonishing synoptics on the table though it has to be said.

I was surprised by the lack of posts , great 12z from GFS 

Two points: the 21-year drought was broken earlier this year, so a lot of the pent-up desire for serious snow down here has gone. I'd still like some, for example, but I'm not gagging for it like I have been the last few years.

Second point: it's a wee bit early still. I'd imagine if it were just two weeks later there'd be a lot more interest.