'Marginal events' still need precipitation and as Q pointed out upthread the moisture is on dying fronts so will amount to very little?

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totally agree with the emboldened part.  The 4 to 5 day cold spells previously shown aren't there at the moment, which reflects the transitory nature of what's being shown, with short cold northerlies behind each sliding low, and possibly a couple of days of easterlies with a temporary Scandi ridge. 

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Outlook is definitely more optimistic at the moment for cold weather lovers, and there is some snow in the outlook but it all looks very transitory to me. I think the most anyone can realistically expect at the moment is a couple of cold, grey days with some sleety wet flakes. Some potentially very cold nights on the cards though with high pressure and cold uppers. 

 

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What I am finding confusing though is the lack of SSW downwelling ( HLB's) shown by the gfs and para models in its output. In fact the reverse is happening. For this reason I am less than confident in its output.

This mornings ecm run on the other hand clearly shows ( t240) the type of trop response to the split strat forcing we have had.

 

 

The change in the MO output over the past week has been subtle but not insignificant. We've moved from an unsettled, cold with milder incursions projection to an unsettled, cool with milder and colder incursions scenario. 

More recent runs also appear to be shrinking the likelihood of HLB although that was never a consistent theme across model runs.

The problem of course is that we've always been focused on FI and the overall feeling throughout this period has been one of jam tomorrow and chasing rainbows.

 

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I said a few days ago that this upcoming spell had the feel of 2013 (in terms of transitory snowfalls). For a couple of days late last week, it looked like a more severe & potentially sustained snowy spell could be on the cards (some snow totals for even lowland NW England areas between 20cm and 30cm, even deeper on some runs for other parts of Central or SW England), but that hope now seems to have been whipped away.

I still think we'll see some snow falling between now and the end of Jan, but I'm far less hopeful of any accumulations now.

I've said it before, but I do wish for once the UK would get some serious snowfall. Really catastrophic stuff like they're getting in the Alps. It's physically possible, albeit needing a zillion factors coming together at one time, and I think it'd be great to experience.

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Note that the coldest point in terms of 850's on the mean before February is now this Friday!! I suppose it will stop the T+240  "region xxxx will be buried if this comes off"  posts for a bit although I admit I always look just for hope. 

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I think we all know that a SSW event does not necessarily bring colder whether nor split the vortex and there is no indication from the NWP of any HLB or sustained cold weather heading our way.

Heavy transient snowfall also looks a very slim chance in this set-up

By the same token we don't need a SSW to get a spell of cold on our shores.

So an increasingly boring, dull, damp and cool spell of weather coming up with hopefully some clear days to enjoy. With this on offer give me the lovely mild and sunny day we are having today anytime.

Let's hope for better in Feb.

 

 

One of the things it's possible to accurately predict regarding the models is the depression displayed in this thread when something that wasn't shown, still isn't shown🙄

GFS has over the past couple of runs trended a bit warmer with less cold scatter. This followed it trending a bit colder with less mild scatter for a few days. The setup though remains unchanged- cool and unsettled with snow opportunities for many. A prolonged cold spell wasn't ever shown. A prolonged period of colder than avg conditions was and still is.

If GFS is true to form we'll reach a low water mark soon where it moves everything a bit milder/less interesting (but still cool) and it'll then gradually back track to some more exciting cold setups.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 

2 members going for a fairly negative NAO

The remaining nine on a neutral to slight negative by end of Jan

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Let's hope so, Neil.

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While it wasn't on the same scale as what is currently being experienced in the Alps, the amount of snow we had from the Beast at the end of Feb/start of March last year must have been right up there with the heaviest snowfalls I can ever recall seeing in my neck of the woods, and I'm now 39. It was even more than either winter 09/10 or December 2010 delivered, and we had plenty of snow here during those two spells.

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Real blizzard blowing at the moment in Fetlar Shetland!

https://www.shetlandwebcams.com/fetlar/

 

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Yes, you've been unfortunate to live right through the worst era for snowfall in a hundred years. Had you been born 30 years earlier you would have had a very different tale to tell. Still the good news is you'r not an old man which would have by now been the case 

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We reached 2cm on one fall last winter, but it melted by the following day. We got a couple of dustings as well as that.

Were you not around for March 2006?

One of my best mates was living in Dunblane at the time and he couldn't believe it - around 45cm level snow, with deeper drifts. Two other friends of ours had taken their touring caravan to Windemere - scoffing at my warnings of snow. They opened the door on that Sunday morning, the dog (a Scotty) jumped out... and promptly disappeared into the snow that was level with the bottom of the caravan door (almost 2'). They had to dig-out their Rav4 and leave the caravan at the small site until they could collect it the week after. We were desperately unlucky as the front stalled a mere 20 or so miles west of us, so the snow we got was very light and only gave around 5cm. 

 

Edit: and 1963 round here was also crap for snow; I'm told about 2/3 inches fell on the Boxing Day, then it was bone dry until the thaw in March. I also remember 1987 being rubbish here - one brief snow shower (10mins?) in the entire spell. We've had some great snowfalls - but usually not at the times other people experience them!!

 

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