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SJV
16 January 2019 19:49:03


 


People have been pointing this out on NW - we seem to be going through a spell of poor overnight runs followed by markedly different 12z runs which lifts the mood until the morning !


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yep! Kinda dreading the morning output now after the evening treats 😁

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
16 January 2019 19:53:49

By the way.


It is looking interesting at the moment for this Week and next week - cold and mixed precipitation with NW winds turning NE next week. This Thursday and Friday Northerly winds which turn light later- bring cold air.


Blustery wintry showers are quite possible next 24hrs and Tuesday- Wednesday next week Jan. 22-23. 


The Satellite View in Canada and USA show clear skies in South SE Central and NE USA.  North Atlantic currently has some rain bearing clouds Central and North Atlantic Sea running NE from the SW.


West SW USA and North USA west side has rain and heavy snow weather- Some areas of Low Pressure for them.  


Low Pressure in open Sea of NW Atlantic is acting well defined Low Pressure System that is on the right trajectory.


12z UKMO, ECMWF and GFS runs quite good.


Next Week that East NE USA Low is first going to move across to the South and SE off Newfoundland then it the models predict to send it to SW and South of Greenland and across it as well. High Pressure in Central North Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday is a good northern blocking high and the models are backing it up.


Cold NE winds in NW Europe and the UK by Thursday 24th looks great for giving us cold and frosty conditions maybe a few wintry showers as well.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Arcus
16 January 2019 19:57:18


 


 


It's not a perfect 87 match but that low looks like its going under the block then it would drag the truly frigid easterlies our way. As you say all academic but very good output all round tonight 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Russwirral
16 January 2019 20:06:56


 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Huge Spread?  I dont think ive ever seen tighter ensembles TBH.


Arcus
16 January 2019 20:12:35


 


 


Huge Spread?  I dont think ive ever seen tighter ensembles TBH.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


a) You need to remember the shading shows SD from mean, not full ensembles


b) Compared to recent runs, the opening out is very noticeable in the latter stages


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
16 January 2019 20:19:57


 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


That spread is evident in the 2m temperatures. Quite a range in the latter stages of the run. 


https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Gusty
16 January 2019 20:22:55

Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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JACKO4EVER
16 January 2019 20:24:34
Some options later on in the run but very encouraging this evening for cold weather fans.
Maunder Minimum
16 January 2019 20:29:01
With the glaring exception of ICON, the models have largely redeemed themselves this evening. Will the 0z's give us a breakfast of cold, lumpy porridge in the morning again? Hopefully the model output will start to stabilise soon on a wintry outlook.
New world order coming.
soperman
16 January 2019 20:30:52

This suite is better for coldies but expect wild swings in the NWP over the next 48-72 hours as the Jet is likely to be significantly impacted by the winter storm in the US.


The extent and length of any cold spell is far from nailed on let alone any significant snowfall.


Eyes upstream through to Saturday / Sunday may be more revealing than the NWP 

Whether Idle
16 January 2019 20:32:35


Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Perhaps people are keeping their powder dry for the coming days, while output is highly volatile, and whilst the heart goes with JMA the head goes with GEM. We need to get within something like 120 hours before any slight confidence of the outcome post the low sinking SSE can be held.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
PFCSCOTTY
16 January 2019 20:46:47


Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


yes who knows we may get a frost before the winters out! 

Whether Idle
16 January 2019 20:50:49


 


 


yes who knows we may get a frost before the winters out! 


Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 


Indeed.  Halfway through and almost no frost and not a flake IMBY, about as bad as it gets, yet it seems completely normalised now.  


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
16 January 2019 20:52:40


 


As T+268 would be the 27th January, a very quick search has come up with this chart:



Originally Posted by: jhall 


Remind me to post some photos of 27 Jan 1996, some of the best snowfall I’ve experienced in the UK, when I was living in Sheffield. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
16 January 2019 20:57:46


 


Remind me to post some photos of 27 Jan 1996, some of the best snowfall I’ve experienced in the UK, when I was living in Sheffield. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Ah yes, I see that the chart from that is a goodie. Other good 27th Januaries were 1954 and - unsurprisingly the coldest looking of all - 1947.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Arcus
16 January 2019 20:57:54


 


Indeed.  Halfway through and almost no frost and not a flake IMBY, about as bad as it gets, yet it seems completely normalised now.  


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Ironic isn't it? I had snow falling in October and November last year, but nothing so far in winter proper. I may pop my cherry overnight or tomorrow morning. More Tea Vicar etc.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Saint Snow
16 January 2019 21:11:21


 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


And, like the GFS, the split proper begins on the 22nd/23rd



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
16 January 2019 21:11:36
Can anyone post this evenings ‘snow porn’ JMA?
I’m remaining skeptical after the pantomime will it /won’t it output of the past couple of days... but something’s definitely stirring for the turn of the month.
doctormog
16 January 2019 21:14:35

Can anyone post this evenings ‘snow porn’ JMA?
I’m remaining skeptical after the pantomime will it /won’t it output of the past couple of days... but something’s definitely stirring for the turn of the month.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



White Meadows
16 January 2019 21:18:15
Thanks Doc.
Somehow the Azores HP seems to even limit the impact of that run. What we really want is the whole set up a few hundred miles west.
Brian Gaze
16 January 2019 21:36:40

New thread at 22:38.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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