theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
18 January 2019 20:09:19
ECM mean charts suggest quite a flip away from easterlies across the whole suite to me, but I could be wrong?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
SJV
18 January 2019 20:09:21




I try to follow my own "cross model agreement within 4 days, any further than that is guesswork" rule, but I kept getting suckered in every time.  Although I have held my nerves on my own FB weather page where I told myself to wait until Monday before making the call.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


My tactic on my FB page is to ramble about the uncertainty giving myself the opportunity to be a hero when it all goes tits up or the hero if we get snow. Disguised fence-sitting 


It's working well at the moment given the current output 

SJV
18 January 2019 20:10:43

ECM mean charts suggest quite a flip away from easterlies across the whole suite to me, but I could be wrong?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Mean still looks decent with cold persisting throughout. OP more of an outlier at the end but not that far from the mean mid-term. Not looked in detail though so can't comment on easterly influences in the ens.

cultman1
18 January 2019 20:12:39
All very confusing reading the posts this evening.... so where are we going from mid to late next week? Is tonight's models prognosis just a wobble resulting in a return to the somewhat milder weather we have experienced so much this winter so far or are the signs that this cool/cold spell is looking like being locked in for a reasonable period?
White Meadows
18 January 2019 20:13:41
So we’re out of the woods more or less for now? With the ecm op shooting up after 25th

God this is painful 😣
Polar Low
18 January 2019 20:15:13

MH


The spread end of the EC ENS is massive with some ensemble members near +3C some near -12C with 850mb temps. Looking at the clusters and the EC HRES is something of an outlier but the spread is that large compared with the 12Z GFS ENS can't say much more.

ballamar
18 January 2019 20:15:13
Be boring if every model agreed, still think it’s brewing and will come back on ECM
Brian Gaze
18 January 2019 20:15:59


JMA 12z is night and day compared to yesterday's and thankfully for the better!!



 


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


There was a rumour years ago that JMA was highly regarded by the UKM. However, I've never seen any verification stats for it or evidence to substantiate the rumour. 


Somewhat amusingly I was contacted by several journalists today. As far as I could tell the smoke signals coming out of Devon were all systems go. It's amazing how quickly uncertainty can creep back in. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Arcus
18 January 2019 20:16:20
Another couple of rounds of runs needed to see where we sit with ECM/ICON runs from today. Wobbles always expected in these situations, and the Mean charts I suspect are misleading. But it is a very delicate evolution IMO to get to the NE/E'ly cold at the end of next week.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
DPower
18 January 2019 20:23:42
I think we have been here many times before last Feb rings a bell. We are bound to see the odd dodgy op run. The gfs has amplified the ridging north into the stronger Arctic high t72 onwards where as the ecm has done the opposite, moving a lobe of vortex south towards Svalbard weakening the Arctic high between t96 and t120 thus reducing the Atlantic ridging north. The ukmo tonight shows a stronger more amplified Arctic high which follows strat forcings and guidence.
Ignoring the ec op run its encouraging to see stronger heights to our north when at one time it did not look as if the pattern would be amped enough. This lends me to think the pattern may well become more nne rather than ene post day 7.
White Meadows
18 January 2019 20:27:04

I think we have been here many times before last Feb rings a bell. We are bound to see the odd dodgy op run. The gfs has amplified the ridging north into the stronger Arctic high t72 onwards where as the ecm has done the opposite, moving a lobe of vortex south towards Svalbard weakening the Arctic high between t96 and t120 thus reducing the Atlantic ridging north. The ukmo tonight shows a stronger more amplified Arctic high which follows strat forcings and guidence.
Ignoring the ec op run its encouraging to see stronger heights to our north when at one time it did not look as if the pattern would be amped enough. This lends me to think the pattern may well become more nne rather than ene post day 7.

Originally Posted by: DPower 

Facinating post, and an enlightening read. Makes it more exciting when you put it that way 👍

idj20
18 January 2019 20:27:57


 


My tactic on my FB page is to ramble about the uncertainty giving myself the opportunity to be a hero when it all goes tits up or the hero if we get snow. Disguised fence-sitting 


It's working well at the moment given the current output 


Originally Posted by: SJV 



It's like an art form.  

Folkestone Harbour. 
marco 79
18 January 2019 20:45:50
The constant split in the gefs ens......shows some inconsistencies....there lies the nagging doubt....Ecm maybe jumping the gun on this....50/50.....for sanity 5 day timeframe is the max....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Arcus
18 January 2019 21:12:08

18z ICON digs the low down slightly more at T+108, but it's fine margins compared to the 12z


EDIT: T+120 looks better. Rollercoaster continues.



 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2019 21:21:19


18z ICON digs the low down slightly more at T+108, but it's fine margins compared to the 12z


EDIT: T+120 looks better. Rollercoaster continues.



 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


it does look better lovely little wedge of heights upto Greenland . Where the mighty ICON goes the ECM will surely follow.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arcus
18 January 2019 21:26:53


 


 


it does look better lovely little wedge of heights upto Greenland . Where the mighty ICON goes the ECM will surely follow.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The variation within what one normally term the semi-reliable (T+96 to T+120) is rather unnerving, it must be said.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gooner
18 January 2019 21:29:04

O/T but worth mentioning due to ECM's uncertainty 


Beeb weekly video forecast updated at 20:56 cold NElies on the way 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
18 January 2019 21:40:01


 


Lets wait for the ensembles, but echoes of Dec 2012 where one run hints at it going wrong then all of a sudden it does. The reliance on the Arctic High is always high risk.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


this is the first potential cold spell that I have paid no attention to. I’m rather pleased I haven’t invested any time in it yet as it does look very uncertain. Brexit is far more interesting! And my heating is playing up so I dont mind it going Pete tong 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
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White Meadows
18 January 2019 21:59:42


 


this is the first potential cold spell that I have paid no attention to. I’m rather pleased I haven’t invested any time in it yet as it does look very uncertain. Brexit is far more interesting! And my heating is playing up so I dont mind it going Pete tong 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

?? Do me a flavour. We know you’re pretending! 😉 

Shropshire
18 January 2019 22:00:13


O/T but worth mentioning due to ECM's uncertainty 


Beeb weekly video forecast updated at 20:56 cold NElies on the way 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It's based on the 0z runs.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
18 January 2019 22:01:30
Early stages of the 18z GFS look encouraging if you want cold.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
18 January 2019 22:02:23


 


It's based on the 0z runs.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Why would it be ? Are you saying all forecasts for the day ahead go from the 0z ? I understand not using the 12z's but surely the 6z's would be looked at for later forecasts ? 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Shropshire
18 January 2019 22:04:50


 


Why would it be ? Are you saying all forecasts for the day ahead go from the 0z ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I can only say from past experience of watching it, they never take into account the subsequent shifts that we can see on the 12z runs. I would suggest it has to be written by late afternoon, and you wouldn't base it on the GFS/UKMO 12zs if you didn't have the ECM by then.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gooner
18 January 2019 22:05:52


Looks ok so far 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SJV
18 January 2019 22:06:47
18z holding steady with little change in the short-term. Tuesday looks potentially snowy still.

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