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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2019 05:11:14

Update: GFS versus UKMO- GFS loses but UKMO wins, for Cold and NE flow and the Cold NW North plus the aforementioned NE flow, and it is better than GFS 00z, the Arctic High Scandy Low/ High looks good.  GFS still not bad after T192 hours etc etc.


I WONDER, GFS puts every thing NW and to NE, But UKMO does the Opposite, by keeping UK cold and interesting for wintry potential- GFS does that from 192 in it’s latest set of operational.


Now we await what ECMWF drums up, please give the PV Low another victory, and draw in to our NE the Arctic High and let the SE tracking Low impact UK from Tuesday to Thursday, and then drag cold and wintry ENE winds from SW Norway Denmark, via Low P trofs moving West SW across to UK NW Europe.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 05:33:11

Despite a stunning GFS and ok ukmo and GEM. Gefs look like there going the wrong way its very fine margins. Para also poor. I think we are losing this one.


Expecting a poor ECM hopefully I'm wrong but weve been here so many times before


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
19 January 2019 05:54:10


 think we are losing this one.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Based on one run? At least give it a day!


(The models, of course, are showing their usual wobbling, just as they do with any cold outlook. The SSW is still ongoing and it won't be helping things when it comes to certainty!)


Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
19 January 2019 05:55:58


Despite a stunning GFS and ok ukmo and GEM. Gefs look like there going the wrong way its very fine margins. Para also poor. I think we are losing this one.


Expecting a poor ECM hopefully I'm wrong but weve been here so many times before


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Para does keep the NW/SE tilt going so snow opportunities will crop up


Also GEFS up to 180 is finely balanced after 180 a variant of options 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:01:38


 


Based on one run? At least give it a day!


(The models, of course, are showing their usual wobbling, just as they do with any cold outlook. The SSW is still ongoing and it won't be helping things when it comes to certainty!)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Yesterday's 12s were also dodgy , its rare for models to have this much of a wobble and come good again. I will be very pleasantly surprised if the ECM is good


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:05:14


 


Para does keep the NW/SE tilt going so snow opportunities will crop up


Also GEFS up to 180 is finely balanced after 180 a variant of options 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


its definitely a v finely balanced setup . 


 


 


 


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
19 January 2019 06:06:51


 


its definitely a v finely balanced setup .  


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It is but look through the GEFS after 192 , so many good options IMO 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
19 January 2019 06:09:27

ECM @72 ...this is the uncomplicated bit 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
19 January 2019 06:15:14

ECM @ 96 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
19 January 2019 06:22:05


Yesterday's 12s were also dodgy , its rare for models to have this much of a wobble and come good again. I will be very pleasantly surprised if the ECM is good


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Maybe if you just looked at the ECM op, but the vast majority of the ensemble members were showing a cold spell and a long one at that.


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
19 January 2019 06:22:43

@ 120



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
19 January 2019 06:23:29
Squeaky bum time...
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:25:43


@ 120



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


The wobble has become an earthquake.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
19 January 2019 06:28:10

ECM- The Azores High shows its superpowers on the 144:



GFS the coldest solution from its suite, UMKO not very convincing IMO.


Clearly the wheels are at great risk of coming off and nothing was ever nailed on. Below are the GEFS:


Diagramme GEFS


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:30:04


 



Maybe if you just looked at the ECM op, but the vast majority of the ensemble members were showing a cold spell and a long one at that.


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Whenn the ecm op wobbles though its time to get concerned


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2019 06:32:37

It looks like the 00z GFS and ECMWF as well as ICON are better at drawing in less cold air by about T120 hours, going against the UKMO 00z, wind reversal at T120, by turning winds more to Westerly direction. But it looks at the same time the Pattern in South and Central USA is also similarly uninspiring and more less cold conditions for them as well, based on T96-120 hrs hah!.


That Central North Atlantic High wants to stay there it seems with the Low heading to Iceland and later drift SE towards NW UK.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:33:28

All hail King ICON!


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
19 January 2019 06:35:22
Well just looking through and you couldn’t make it up. Some serious concerns now.
Gooner
19 January 2019 06:35:45


All hail King ICON!


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Why 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:37:47


 


Why 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Because it looks like its been more right then any other model. Which would be remarkable


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
19 January 2019 06:39:03


 


 


Because it looks like its been more right then any other model. Which would be remarkable


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Eh?


How can you say that ? 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
19 January 2019 06:39:07

Far too much hope-casting has been in evidence on this thread over the past week.  People slapping each-other on the back, looking at the frozen future, wilfully ignoring the less favourable output.  A massive slap in the face from the EC this morning.


Let's be honest, the coldest air may well skim away to the north and east, and we may well maintain a mobile westerly flow, pretty much as depicted by the much respected and vaunted ECM. Chances of a significant cold spell with some snow have receded to  50% at best IMHO.


Bring on the 12zs, which may or may not also be a case of "bring on the dustbins"...


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
19 January 2019 06:45:14

Just look how different ECM is again , very different from yesterdays 12z , 120hrs really is your lot to be honest 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2019 06:46:41


 


Eh?


How can you say that ? 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Is the ecm op going to be this wrong so early. Id be surprised. We still have the effects of the ssw so winter is not over . But this particular easterly looks done.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Karl Guille
19 January 2019 06:52:35

As ever the themes in the T144-216 timeframe evolve and very rarely look the same come the T72-96 timeframe.  When things look good at T216 the inevitable adjustments will nearly always disappoint.  Here again this morning the Azores high exerts is influence ever so slightly further eastwards and the diving Low is split losing some of its energy and hey presto the Atlantic holds sway, certainly on the ECM.  This was a feature yesterday so it does look as though this may now play out differently.  GFS is still broadly the same but any further development of this theme will end the chances of the initial cold blast.  No doubt plenty of other options for a renewed attack later.  No point looking beyond  T120-144 at this stage but this is how things currently look. All eyes on the 12z!



St. Sampson
Guernsey

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