I think we will see that finished off by about 4.10pm today.

What's amazing is how when things do go spectacularly wrong how often zonality just takes back over as per the 06z and ECM, the same happened in Dec 2012. Ou best hope is another mid-latitide High holding pattern.

For you Doc definitely, not for the rest of us ! 

So true MM, but I find it as interesting as I do curious that while the mid-term outputs are changing constantly, the longer-terms are pretty resolute, which suggests that while there is some sort of signal being picked up,  the route that takes us to that point is not yet drawn out. 

London ecm ensembles.

Yes the raging zonality at the end of the gfs is a sight to behold

Actually I think that would probably be better for most other parts than for here (just like the possible/impossible easterly). 

You know full well what I mean, after the failure in the mid-term the jet fires up as per the ECM. What T300 shows is as irrelevant as T192 was this morning and yesterday if the earlier period is called wrongly.

Para poor again I think its wait to round 2 prob in about 10 days .

With the daffodils and blossom starting to come out down here, I am definitely looking forward to the end of this God forsaken "winter".

So, firstly, the op has followed the minority cluster that becomes less cold for 2-3 days. Secondly the 00z pattern is much the same as the 12z yesterday in showing much greater consistency in a cold theme beyond day 9.

This isn't settled yet by any means, whatever one or two posters seem to want to imply.

No knee jerking when I look at that chart. 

Click on the user name for the profile. ‘Hide User posts’ is an option.

Unless you’ve already hidden me in which case you won’t see this 😎

GFS P backing ECM at t144

Still hope yet it won't be as cold as I feared

I think those ECM data actually tie in quite nicely with the GEFS data. Cold, less cold interlude and then potentially colder. It’s also been signposted for weeks, unlike the TBC easterly which, while a threat, had not been a consistent theme.

Well that was certainly worth staying up to observe and analyse the 00z run! NOT only for this to now happen and cold air goes into the east and SE Europe where it was due to turn milder!?

Very frustrating but was expected but never knew it would be such a downgrade, not just the GFS but ECM. At least next Tuesday still gives us some snow potential for now. Anything after that is for fun but i really thought we were heading into a prolonged spell of cold or very cold weather which the met office also suggested a very cold end to Jan - in line with many other longer range models BCC, CFSv2, JMA and EC 30 day etc.

I think too many people are looking at the latest GFS run through their cold easterly tinted glasses - it's chilly or cold throughout with several heavy snow events and yet again a persistent signal for significant northern blocking.

Wipe the disappointment of an easterly that may or may not happen away and check the calendar - it's 19th Jan, we're in a chilly or cold pattern with the possibility of snowfall just about anywhere and a low but decent chance of getting some properly cold air in at some point over the next 2-3 weeks.

"yeah but it's always FI etc" - what the low key snowfall parts of the country have just experienced? That was FI at one point and now it's not. The chilly, sometimes cold and unsettled regime that some people were resolutely ignoring when the GFS FI flagged it has now arrived and as it showed there'll be colder and milder (but not mild) interludes with snowfall a possibility just about anywhere. Shall we look at Tuesday for next point of snowy interest? That's not FI either.

I get the temptation to get excited about -10 850s ushered in by Scandi blocking, that's pretty much jackpot territory for my tiny part of the country but until it's T96 or at a push T120 if the support is good, they're just a representation of what might happen. Given the uncertainty in the GFS ens it was very much just one possible outcome too, albeit one with decent support (and one there's still a chance might happen too I guess).

With the persistence of the cold/chilly signal throughout I'm happy with what's happening and the chance of something more significant down the line. 

Exactly.

It was only a few days ago that the professionals were saying the outlook was cold but it was unclear whether it would be north-westerlies or an easterly.  The charts were also favouring a flow from the north - remember the chunk of the polar vortex that was predicted to drop south through the country?

Anyway, the GFS(P) evolves in the same way as earlier in the week with energy dropping south from day 8.  As I keep saying, this isn't sorted yet by any means (Ian, take note).

You can see quite clearly how zonality has returned and we have a run of mild weather ahead..... 

Honestly, this place can be extraordinary when there's cold weather in the offing.

That made me laugh, 😂 you are certainly not a user I would hide. Your posts are balanced and informative 👍

06z ENS for London:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=545

What is worth looking at here is the spread around 26th (next Saturday). It's unusual because, instead of the usual scatter, there's daylight between two determined clusters. Take a look.

This represents real uncertainty- but with options almost falling into two camps, rather than anywhere.