Another no snow day for PSJ.

This post could well have belonged to the MOD thread, but I believe that this was the right place for that instead.

From what I am reading in the MO thread about the latest downgrades in the model output for any upcoming cold spell, I can see now that the whole concept of model watching is a complete waste of time since the weather will always end up doing what it is going to do anyway, regardless of what the model output is telling us about that in advance.

Even within that branch of model watching though, there is a concept known as persistence which tells us that if we have had the same weather pattern for quite a long period of time, the most favoured outcome is that this same weather pattern will then remain in place since that is how it normally is anyway. In order for that to change, something very major would need to happen within the atmosphere in order to force that change and recent experience has shown that this is not something which actually happens all that often.

To me, this so-called "winter" falls into exactly that same scenario because we have been now been having to endure such a massive borefest for so long now, that the concept of persistence tells us that the rest of this winter is more likely to just continue in that same fashion, unless something very major happens which will be powerful enough to change that. I believe that the lack of any sort of "winter" until now is due to the sudden switch to a westerly QBO and the manner in which the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently set up to favour a positive NAO.

That has resulted in a much stronger Azores High than what we would like to be seeing at this time of year to such an extent that all concepts of any "actual" weather have been more or less wiped out here altogether, this making for a very boring and uninteresting winter overall and although we have have just had a SSW event, I don't believe that this on its own will be strong enough to overcome those other factors which I have just mentioned (after all, it is not every single SSW event which leads to any really cold weather after that).

Some of you might recall that some time ago, I had thoughts about seriously leaving this forum altogether and in response to that, Caz made a very good point in another thread that I should continue to be part of this forum since I have a very strong interest in the weather which this forum helps me to put into practice. However, this is a weather forum (even though there are other forums on this site for dealing with other subjects such as sport and politics) which means that there would be no point in me being part of this forum if I wasn't interested in the weather in any way.

My thinking now is that if I were to ever leave this forum (hopefully though, I never will), it would probably now be due to the fact that I am no longer interested in the weather rather than being due to the actions of anyone on this forum. Hopefully, it will never actually come to that, but I have to say that the longer this current borefest goes on with nothing which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather actually happening, the more that my actual interest in the weather is gradually being ebbed away as a result because at the end of the day, it is pointless being interesting in something which nothing ever happens, which is the way that our weather in this part of the world has increasingly become in recent times.

This means that the longer that this drags on, there then becomes more and more of a danger that this lack of any actual weather in this part of the world could end up draining away my overall interest in the weather to the point where I then end up leaving this forum as a result. Once again, I will stress that I hope that it will never actually come to that but at the end of the day, something needs to change with our weather soon, in order to stop that from happening. Let's just hope that at some point in time, the weather might actually get interesting again so that I remain interested enough in it to continue to be as valuable a member of this forum as possible in the longer term although with the way that it's looking just now, I wouldn't exactly bank on that happening.

Longest post of the year award goes to John ^^^^ 

My moan is about people that moan about the MO thread during Winter when it doesn't give them the 2 foot of snow they want.

P.S Where is my Snow  its just cold and dull, prefer it cold and sunny 

My moan is that I keep seeing cars covered with snow and all I have is a wet pavement!  Where are the coming from?  Snow can’t have been far away for there to be so much being commuted in!   

Just keep in mind one thing John, you don't suffer alone. 

I don't know if the point I am going to make has been mentioned before, but I have been weather and model watching for 60 years ..... going back to the days when models were always FI at 48 hours.  My gripe is that of last week in January.  A lot has been made about the epic start to the 47 winter.  However I can say from my perspective that in the West Country there has been no major snowfalls in my area during that week since 1958.  Even 1963 and 1978 did not produce much significant snow at this time.  The much lauded 'thundersnow' of 2004 only produced a patchy half an inch.  May be some of my fellow Victor Meldrews of the weather scene down here in the south could back me up on this.....

Back from a break when I didn't do much model watching but it still looks like jam tomorrow - interesting wintry model outputs all still 10 days away

Winter used to be the most interesting season of the year here. Now I can't think of a single good thing to say about it. It's just a torturous ordeal that sucks the life out of you.

With yet another weekend in which I'm being denied the opportunity to do the things I enjoy, I thought I'd have a look at the statistics to see just how bad things have got.

The eight winters from 2005/06 to 2012/13 were a fairly representative mix of what you should reasonably expect to get here. There were the two very snowy winters of 09/10 and 10/11 alongside utter rubbish like 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12. The rest in between. Those eight winters recorded a total of 173 days with snow lying, an average of 21.8 per winter. Of those an average of 14.1 days recorded a depth of at least 5cm and 8.3 days at least 10cm. The average depth per snow lying day was 8.7cm

Compare that to the six winters since - a total of 56 days lying to give an average of only 9.3 per winter. Most shocking is the complete lack of depth. Most of the falls have been like the insulting and pointless rubbish we got this week. Just 14 days have recorded 5cm - less than the average per winter previously - while not a single day has managed 10cm. The max has been just 8cm which is less than the average depth for the previous eight winters. It's awful without precedent. Average depth of just 2.9 cm per snow lying day.

This is why this run of winters is so much worse than the 90s. The days of snow lying are about the same but back in the 90s the snow that fell packed a punch with several heavy but brief falls that soon melted e.g. 20cm at the end of February 1993 that was gone in a few days. So much better than useless 2cm falls that are just a complete waste of time but we have scarcely had anything better over the past six years 

This month is the pits. Not just lacking in wintry weather but so boring, dreary and depressing with rotten weekends. One of the least photogenic months I can recall. Could well be heading toward the first January since the worse than putrid 1996 when not a single day managed 6 hours sun. The best so far is just 5.4 hours way back on the 3rd.

Glorious weather here today. We've just reached the time of year when you can start to feel the warmth from the sun. Still time for winter to bite but it won't be long before I fire up my lawnmower. 

And your moan is...? Oh, wait, yes I see, the bit about the lawnmower

Last mowed the lawn in November,grass has grown a good 4 inches since then. Frost has been rare imby this winter.

That does seem to be backed up by Bonacina although plenty of snow either side that people would die for! 

"1962-3 Mid-Nov., especially south west England. 26-29th Dec., blizzards southern England. London 12in drifting snow. Jan. and Feb., widespread falls, especially Devon, north east England 2ft."

"1977-8  8-17th Feb., very snowy north east, east and south west England. Feb 11th, Edinburgh, Durham 1ft. Feb. 15-16th south west England, blizzard with huge drifts."

"1985-6 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall."

"1986-7 18-20th Nov, S. England 2ins.; 25-29th Nov., Scotland, 6-12in. 7-8th Jan, widespread. 22-23rd Feb., south west England, 6in. Feb very cold (CET -1.1degC); 1st Mar, blizzard, England. Apr, numerous places more than 10 days snowfall."

For now.

Give it a bit longer and the cold will be showing for June-August. And the models will be spot on then.

Well exactly a week ago I posted on the MOD thread that the 20th wold be key and if it wasn't nailed on then we would find people looking for the pot of gold in February and it would soon need something like the very end of last Feb to make this winter of any note. And that's where we are now. It will be cold but probably just regular winter fayre which will be what some will say was all they were expecting.

Yes so my moan here tonight is the fact it was 6c around Tiverton and I saw the gritters out! - Got back to Exeter 6.5c! South Molton was cooler at 5c but seriously...? To seeing gritters out in at night where we are in daytime average temperatures in January is crazy!! Gritters are mean to come out when it's freezing or below not 5-6c above. Frost was never forecast anyway! What's even more embarrassing is that some roads have put out 'ice' signs when temperatures are still 6c. I mean seriously this winter is becoming a JOKE!

 Still needs cutting here every few weeks ,despite the fact we were all supposed to be in bitter easterlies by now according to the seasonal models

Ain’t that the truth!

To be fair Tally there was a widespread ground frost across the West Country last night, as a glance here will tell you: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/amextremes.html

So icy roads were indeed a risk.