Wonder if the 18z ICON will be a bit kinder to NW england this evening

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yeah hopefully with the odd more organised band to head over the pennines towards the tyne side ;) 

would be nice but not going to happen.

Re thursday...

Icon marginally further south.

Gfs about the same but with less oomph.

Another slight downgrade for NW englands snow chances.

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Have to say I'm really disssapointed in the AROME.
That's two miserable forecasts in a row (after the 'freezing rain' event where the AROME went for snow).

 

AROME is usually the best model bar none for precip type and its peformed dismally today. Kudos to the usually terrible HIRLAM for getting this right though.

 

Moral of the story, never trust a cold occlusion even if it has the AROME's backing.

 

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These things never get to NW England. The northern extent is always Sheffield for some reason. The southern extent is always Bristol.

 

 

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its made it here Q in Chelmsford Essex most things now white look at that late temp drop in link dryer s/e air?

https://www.cm2weather.co.uk/gauges

 very slowly expanding

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/realtime-snowfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

The HIRLAM model looks the most interesting this morning as far as snow across the south is concerned tomorrow evening. Many other models move the band of precipitation through reasonably quickly. HIRLAM has it stalling over southern areas.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5603/hirlamuk-1-40-0_ykz9.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7841/hirlamuk-1-43-0_djl0.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9896/hirlamuk-1-45-0_lsd3.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9970/hirlamuk-1-48-0_dbe6.png

Snow depths by midnight Friday vary from 10cm over the Brecon Beacons and the moors of the south west to 7cm across parts of Hampshire

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9134/hirlamuk-45-48-0_yap2.png

Well last night in the Surrey hills turned out pretty much as forecast to be honest.

Now to start obsessing about Thursdays attack from the south. Here’s hoping Hirlam has it right in terms of where it stalls and slides.

The Friends ‘Pivot!’ sketch springs to mind...

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It appears as if NW England will miss thursdays action too.. despite being in the firing line for days.

Southerners get another widespread snow event. Honestly i starting to struggle to think of any scenario where we can get a decent snowfall from.

Seems most if not all models are putting this even along mid wales to suffolk

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I feel your pain....... There was a bit of snow here yesterday morning, and that was it, but down from about Kilmarnock, along to Irvine, West Kilbride etc there has been heavy snow showers coming in almost continuously from yesterday, some places have a right good covering, even Saltcoats right on the coast has had a fair amount

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Manchester has City Centre snow from what I can tell...Certainly snowy pics coming out from South Manchester! 

So the snow as expected didn't really get going in East London last night.

My eyes are now drawn to Thursdays potential snow which looks a little more promising.

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GFS still takes the snow further north into NW England.

Hirlam has the northern boundary from around Southport to Peterborough, although the eastern arm pivots north to get to Lincoln'ish.

Arpege keeps the snow line to south Cheshire

Icon shunted it even further south.

I'm not hopeful, so a bit disappointed. 

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Mods.....

Any chance on keeping this to the Potential of snow thread and the snow reports go in the snow reports thread?

This happened last Winter and was quite tedious. After all it’s not different to distinguish between the two.

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ICON looks better than ECM for snow distribution and depth:

To be honest, I don't think we will have much clue about where will be best for snow (if anywhere) until the Thursday 6z high res charts are published.

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I've completely lost hope in the front but have regained some small sliver in the form of convective snow showers which seem more likely now.

For me up north. For alot of people down south the front could be quite good.

 

 

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Looking at that chart I’ll join in with the east midlands and miss the lot.....apart from some nice cold rain😳 again..

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Hmm, Icon has steadily been reducing the lying snow depths, it was showing 6-7cm here yesterday and has now reduced to about 1cm if I am lucky. Another nonevent on the way, if you added up the lying snow from the three "snowfalls" we have had so far it still wouldn't come over the top of a worm's wellies.

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Yin and Yang - GFS 12Z upgrades the snow potential for tomorrow night for the West Midlands and downgrades it for the West Country.

We are unlikely to know the truth until it actually happens.

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Icon may have downgraded but the Met O automated output has now ramped it right up, with a 90% "two-flake" heavy snow symbol for four hours plus tomorrow night!

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That's the one they pinched off me


I have a rapidly diminishing period of light snow with only 60% probability of precipitation now

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Looks like our chances are rapidly diminishing. A couple of days ago, the risk was that the snow band would be too far north for us, but now it has corrected too far south for us.

For some reason, model output generally corrects south as we get nearer the timeframe, so for us, we want to see Northumberland being pasted at three days out, Yorkshire at two days out and then we might get it when the time arrives. As it is, we were going to be pasted at two days out, but now it looks like London and the Home Counties - when the event finally arrives, it will probably end up being a Channel Islands only event as far as the UK is concerned.

 

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That chart is looking awful for me, yet again!  The automated forecasts keep changing and even when they’ve shown snow, it’s been marginal. Even the previous yellow warnings have had me right on the edge, first from the South, then the North.

So although I’m disappointed not to have had any snow yet, I’m not surprised.  At least some of you have had some and the potential is certainly there for more this week, so I’m hoping the final update will change in my favour!

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Meto had 4 hours of light snow over High Wycombe from 8pm tomorrow - this has now changed to 13 hours of light / heavy snow starting at 5 pm.

 

Hope they're right but that's too drastic a change.

 

Best wait until tomorrow morning to see the likely pivoting.

12z EURO4

Sweet spot appears to be Wiltshire and around mid Wales. Also parts of Dorset, and eventually Sussex/Kent. 

Potentially a significant snow event even for coastal areas such as Brighton and Dover. 

 

 

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