Sunday 29 Sep - Tuesday 8 Oct

Outbreaks of heavy rain and strong winds in the southwest will move north and east across much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland and perhaps southern Scotland during Sunday. There is a chance that winds will reach gale force on coasts and hills. After a brief drier spell, probably on Tuesday and Wednesday, the unsettled weather looks set to resume through the first week of October, with further wet and windy weather likely to affect mainly northern and western parts of the UK, with the risk of gales at times. However, southern and eastern parts may see some drier and brighter periods, with the risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above the average, but cooler in the wind and rain at times.

Wednesday 9 Oct - Wednesday 23 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low through this period. However, towards the middle of October we may see spells of fine and dry weather becoming more widespread, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy into October with a few dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 25 September – Sunday 29 September

An unsettled, but mostly warm, end to the week

An area of low pressure passing across southern Britain will bring some early rain to south east England on Wednesday morning, and there will be a few showers in other areas but it doesn't look as wet as it was on Tuesday morning, and Wednesday afternoon looks to be drier and brighter. Meanwhile in the west, things will stay more showery with just a few sunny spells. A moderate to fresh breeze in the south west and along southern coasts. A frontal system is then expected to push in overnight and into Thursday bringing another round of heavy rain to already water-logged areas. The fronts and rain will head off into the North Sea by the early afternoon on Thursday, but scattered blustery showers will drift in to the west. A few of these may occasionally reach into central and eastern areas, and may produce the odd rumble of thunder.

For the end of the week and through the weekend things will likely stay unsettled for all with low pressure gradually sliding across Scotland and northern England. This will keep showers and some longer outbreaks of rain over the UK, with a few thundery showers mixed in. Breezy in the southern half of the country with calmer winds further north. Yet another frontal system is expected on Sunday moving in from the west-southwest, so the weekend may end on a soggy note for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland while Scotland escapes much of the rain until later in the evening.

Monday 30 September – Sunday 6 October

A brief cooler and drier spell mid-week

Low pressure systems from the Atlantic are expected to be a big feature in the weather into the start of October, but there is a rather large caveat: Tropical Storm Lorenzo. This storm is currently strengthening in the tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands, and while it is still very far from the UK, it is expected to head towards West Europe into next week and become a major hurricane. Hurricanes produce a lot of rain and this gives off a lot of heat. All this heat energy tends to help build a strong ridge of high pressure ahead of the hurricane, in this case, over the UK. We expect this ridge of high pressure to arrive on Tuesday, and with it, a brief respite to our autumnal, rainy weather.

The eastern half of the country may well get a bit of a blast of chilly, polar air from a north-westerly wind as the high moves in, bringing temperatures here a bit below average. Western areas, and particularly the south west, should stay a bit warmer than average. Clear, calm nights midweek will lead to some crisp, autumn mornings, with a chance of frost in some places. This high pressure brought to us from Lorenzo does not look like it will linger for long and as we head into the weekend, Atlantic frontal systems will return from the west. One of these systems may be the remnants of Lorenzo, which could make for a wet weekend on Saturday 5th and Sunday 6th of October. However, confidence is still low on whether the remnants will arrive or not.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 20 October

Unsettled for a time but perhaps drying out later

Heading into the first full week of October, unsettled weather looks likely to continue, with low pressure tracking near to or over the UK. There are currently no strong signals that we will see any long-lived high pressure patterns in October. This will keep things wet and windy throughout the country, but high pressure will likely be near to the south and south west. This means that between frontal systems, southern areas may tend to see some drier weather and sunny spells, although these may only last for a day. Temperatures are expected to be near-average and perhaps a touch above average at times in the south as frontal systems drag warmer tropical air in from the south west.

In mid-October there are some early indications that high pressure moves in closer to the UK eventually bringing in more settled weather towards the end of the week. Low pressure will tend to be pushed off to the north or north west nearer to Iceland, but Northern Ireland and Scotland may still feel the effects at times. The driest and brightest weather will be in the south and south east. However, there is low confidence on this as the latest long-range weather models have been struggling with the October forecast. This is due to Atlantic hurricanes which can tend to throw a spanner in the works for the European weather patterns.

Further ahead

Next update: What will happen with Lorenzo and is October stuck with wet, windy weather all month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 30 Sep - Wednesday 9 Oct

Mainly dry and bright on Monday, but cloudier conditions in the far north slowly edging south followed by more frequent showers. It will be windy in the far northeast, with a risk of gales. Further rain is likely at first on Tuesday, especially in the south, before perhaps becoming more generally dry for a time. Unsettled weather then looks likely to resume from mid-week, with further wet and windy weather likely to affect mainly northern and western parts of the UK, and the risk of gales at times. However, southern and eastern parts may see some drier and brighter periods, with the risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above the average, but cooler in the wind and rain at times.

Thursday 10 Oct - Thursday 24 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low through this period. However, towards the middle of October we may see spells of fine and dry weather becoming more widespread, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 1 Oct - Thursday 10 Oct

Rain is likely at first on Tuesday, especially in the south, before it turns drier through the rest of the day and perhaps into Wednesday. Unsettled weather then looks likely to last through to the end of the week, with further wet and windy spells affecting mainly northern and western parts of the UK, where there will be a risk of gales on exposed hills and coasts. However, southern and eastern parts of the UK may see some drier and brighter periods, with the risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above the average, but it will be feeling fairly cool in the wind and rain. It is likely to be cool at night, especially when skies are clear.

Friday 11 Oct - Friday 25 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low through this period. However, towards the middle of October we may see spells of fine and dry weather becoming more widespread, particularly in the south and east of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and cooler nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 2 Oct - Friday 11 Oct

Fine and dry with sunny spells for many on Wednesday away from the northeast, where it will be windy with occasional blustery showers, and a risk of coastal gales. Dry and settled weather with lighter winds should continue through Thursday, however by the weekend it is likely that unsettled, wet and possibly very windy weather will return, bringing with it a risk of gales, especially in the north and west. During the following week the unsettled weather may begin to become more generally confined to the north and west, with occasional spells of drier and brighter weather, particularly in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary around average, although some cold nights are possible under any clear skies.

Saturday 12 Oct - Saturday 26 Oct

Days 16-30 Saturday 12th October to Saturday 26th October (word range 20-130) Confidence in the forecast is low through this period. Unsettled conditions are likely in the north and west at first, however, towards the middle of October we may see some periods of fine and dry weather developing, particularly in the south and southeast of the UK. These would bring bright days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and colder nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Wintry start to October


• Tropical influences arriving


• More ‘welcome’ rain for many

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/09/27/john-hammond-too-wet-not-enough/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Note 'Colder' nights now and NOT cooler as previously suggested.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but turning drier

_________________________________

Saturday 28 September – Sunday 6 October

Mostly unsettled with a dry, cold spell midweek.

Much of England and Wales are in for a wet and windy weekend as a frontal system sweeps across from the west on Saturday evening into Sunday. Widespread heavy rain bands and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are likely, first in Wales and Southwest England, and then spreading across into the Southeast on Saturday night. Strong wind gusts are expected across the South, especially on the Channel coast and later in coastal East Anglia. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely escape much of the heavy rain, with the majority of precipitation staying south of the central belt.

Another frontal system is expected by Monday afternoon and into Tuesday, following much the same path as the fronts from the weekend, keeping Wales and most of England wet and breezy. However, this system is not expected to be as potent, so overall there will be less rain and winds. Again, the northern half of the country will escape the heaviest rain and winds will be light, but shift to northerly on Tuesday. These northerly winds will then spread southwards Tuesday evening, bringing a blast of colder air from the north.

A cold start for most Wednesday with temperatures in the low single figures. High pressure will bring a brief, but chilly, respite to the recent heavy rain for a few days midweek, but frontal systems are expected to return heading into next weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo move near Iceland and weaken the high pressure ridge over the UK. Friday through Sunday is likely to be milder with some south-westerly winds bringing in more tropical air. Things will also turn wetter with active fronts pushing in from the west.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 13 October

Staying wet and windy for most places. Milder.

Heading into the first full week of October, the weather pattern is expected to keep things unsettled across the UK with low pressure tracks moving overhead or just to the north. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, is expected to strengthen over the North Atlantic, bringing fast-moving frontal systems into the UK from the west and southwest. These will keep things wet and windy for most of the country, although with high pressure just to the southwest, a few dry and calm interludes are likely.

The temperatures will tend to be near or just a bit above average overall, with frontal systems dragging milder tropical air up from the southwest. This will most often impact the southern half of the country, but this milder air will reach Scotland at times too. However, Scotland will most likely be on the cooler side of average temperatures, as these warm pulses will be short-lived.

Confidence is a bit lower than normal for this range, as there is still a lot of uncertainty on how the atmosphere will react to the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo in the previous week. There is a 30% risk that the jet stream may not strengthen much as Lorenzo weakens, which will keep high pressure ridging stronger into Northwest Europe and the UK. This will push active frontal systems off to the north and low pressure into Scandinavia, leading to an overall drier but colder picture.

Monday 14 October – Sunday 27 October

Gradual shift into a more settled, warmer pattern.

Unfortunately, due to Atlantic hurricanes and a few other tropical weather patterns, forecast confidence for mid-to-late October is rather low at the moment. We currently expect that the more active low pressure tracks across the UK from earlier in the month will gradually get pushed out of the area by encroaching high pressure as we head into the second half of the month. This is likely to be a gradual shift that takes place over several days as opposed to a more abrupt change.

As Atlantic hurricane season winds down as we go deeper into autumn, this should allow a stronger ridge of high pressure to develop in the Atlantic. This will bring a reduction in the number of weather systems that bring wind and rain to reach the UK. This should also bring in some milder air, especially into the South, but this is highly dependent on the exact location of the high pressure. If it tends to linger further out to sea in the west, then chilly northerly winds will prevail (although the Southwest will likely stay relatively mild).

However, this comes with a rather large caveat that Atlantic hurricane season may not wind down. The typical Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 1st, so we may well see further strong hurricanes develop. These storms can strongly influence the weather patterns even thousands of miles away over Europe. There is currently quite a high risk (40%) that low pressure tracks will remain over the UK and things will stay more unsettled for the rest of the month.

Further ahead

We will look deeper into the second half of October and continue to monitor Atlantic hurricanes activity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gosh! Nauseating isn;t it? Especially how they talk about colder spells in September or cold spell and then turning milder in October and then Warmer and more settled. - Should be other way round in the Autumn months - i.e less mild and then cooler and colder not milder then warmer etc, ha! Irony!!

Cold polar maritime airmass to push across large parts of Europe next week

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A very significant push of cool polar maritime airmass into central, eastern and southeastern Europe appears increasingly likely next week. Frosty mornings, temperatures well below average, snowfall in northern Alps and severe thunderstorms in the northern Mediterranean expected.

Both GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the cold push. It starts in the wake of a broad low that will push across the Baltic region early on Monday, estalishing a broad meridional flow from the north into central Europe. Cold airmass will push across NW Europe, including parts of Scandinavia, the British Isles and Ireland by late on Monday, pushing further into central Europe by Thursday and into eastern and southeastern Europe late in the week.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/cold-polar-maritime-airmass-to-push-across-large-parts-of-europe-next-week/

Thursday 3 Oct - Saturday 12 Oct

It will be a chilly start on Thursday, with a rural air frost. Outbreaks of rain and strong winds will spread into western areas by the afternoon though, with gales possible. This unsettled weather will then move eastwards later in the day. By the weekend it is likely that unsettled, wet and possibly very windy weather will return, bringing with it a risk of gales, especially in the north and west. During the following week, the unsettled weather may begin to become more generally confined to the north and west, with occasional spells of drier and brighter weather, particularly in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary around average, although some cold nights are possible under any clear skies.

Sunday 13 Oct - Sunday 27 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. Unsettled conditions are likely in the north and west at first, although, towards the middle of October we may see some periods of fine and dry weather developing. These will be particularly in the south and southeast of the UK, bringing bright days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and colder nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

After a week off Nathan Rao is back!

Big freeze on way! Get ready for winter –first snows predicted and it's going to be brutal

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WINTER could be about to make an early arrival amid warnings the first freeze will grip the UK within weeks. 

The first ‘significant snow’ of the season is expected to fall across parts of the country towards the end of October, according to some long-range forecasts. Britain could be facing another record winter chiller with early long-range forecasts pointing to a repeat of last year’s Beast from the East. Warnings come as strong winds and torrential rain continue to hammer the nation with more bad weather forecast this week.

Torrential rain and strong winds will bring further flood misery before Arctic air arrives mid-week sending temperatures plummeting. Brits are  on alert for a major change in the weather to unleash bitter winds and even snow through the second half of October. Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: “Brits should make the most of the milder weather as next month is showing the potential for some cooler weather and significant night time frosts. “These will start to set in during the second half of the month, when the first significant snow of the season is likely to occur across higher ground.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1184069/BBC-weather-warnings-forecast-this-week-snow-north-west-london-rain-October-freeze

Funny how they said "Britain could be facing another record winter chiller" - haha!

As if cold winters are regular and as if last winter was a record cold winter? NOT!! Also last years Beast from the East was the last 5 days of February and occurred early March and then again mid March which is a spring month!! Doh!!

The Express do this every year and they are always wrong aren't they? Just think the opposite and when they forecast heavy rain and strong winds with a really record breaking warm winter then it will turn out to be the exact opposite.

I rightly remember them forecasting 4 months of snow last winter!? -Well, we all know how that turned out? ha!

They will do anything to sell more of their papers. - I guess it makes a difference to BREXIT ALL THE TIME!!

Otherwise take it as a foot of salt!

It's just click-bait garbage.

Every. Sodding. Year.

Friday 4 Oct - Sunday 13 Oct

Low confidence in the forecast on Friday, but it looks likely to turn more widely unsettled, with cloud and outbreaks of rain, perhaps heavy, moving erratically east across the UK. This will be accompanied by stronger winds than of late, with the risk of gales, perhaps severe gales around southern and western coasts. Into weekend it is likely that the unsettled, wet and possibly very windy weather will continue, especially in the north and west. During the following week, the unsettled weather may begin to become more generally confined to the north and west of the UK, with occasional spells of drier and brighter weather, particularly in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary around average, although some cold nights are possible under any clear skies.

Monday 14 Oct - Monday 28 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. Unsettled conditions are likely in the north and west at first, although we may see some periods of fine and dry weather developing particularly in the south and southeast, which may bring some brighter days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and colder nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

UK weather: Parts of Britain braced for three days of heavy rain as flood warnings issued

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Dozens of flood warnings and alerts have been issued as parts of the UK are braced for three days of heavy rain. Severe weather warnings are in place for northwest England, parts of Wales and the South West, with "persistent" rain forecast on Sunday - while further warnings have been issued for Monday and Tuesday.

More than 30 flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected and immediate action is required - have been issued by the Environment Agency.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-parts-of-britain-braced-for-three-days-of-heavy-rain-as-flood-warnings-issued-11822544?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Interesting to hear Nick Miller (IIRC) on the BBC Weather for the week just after 1:00PM on BBC1 just now

These days they generally seem pretty confident with their supercomputer able to give then pretty reliable forecasts out to the end of the week - and from my personal experience they have been pretty reasonable of late

So it was a bit of an eye opener to hear him explaining that with the approach of what will be ex-hurricane Lorenzo the models are "all over the place" at the moment

It seems that there is a huge range of possibilities in the track of Lorenzo from turning due north in mid Atlantic and heading towards the west of Iceland to tracking NE oe ENE and passing across the UK and bringing us all another spell of wet and windy weather on Thursday. At present the former appears to be favourite but there is an unusual amount of uncertainty for just 4 days out

UK weather warning: Britain faces first SNOW of winter as October plunges into deep freeze

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WINTER could be about to make an early arrival amid warnings the first freeze will grip the UK within weeks.

The first ‘significant snow’ of the season is expected to fall across parts of the country towards the end of October, according to some long-range forecasts. Britain could be facing another record winter chiller with early long-range forecasts pointing to a repeat of last year’s Beast from the East. Warnings come as strong winds and torrential rain continue to hammer the nation with more bad weather forecast this week.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1184069/BBC-weather-warnings-forecast-this-week-snow-north-west-london-rain-October-freeze

I think there was also a lot of uncertainty on 23/09 about yesterday's weather. I was contacted by someone organising a charity event in London yesterday asking for my advice because forecasts "were all over the place". 

US weather: Emergency declared in Montana after surprise snowstorm in September

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Montana has declared an emergency after a rare September snowstorm dumped as much as two feet of snow, causing dangerous driving conditions and scattered power outages. Winter storm warnings were posted for parts of western Montana, northern Idaho and northeast Washington.

Snow was also forecast for areas in Wyoming, Utah, Oregon, Nevada and California. The brunt of the storm hit Montana where up to 61cm (2ft) of snow fell on Saturday in the mountains and a record 35.5cm (14in) fell in Great Falls, with snow still falling on Sunday.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/emergency-declared-after-surprise-snowstorm-in-september-11823434

Met office contingency planners 

September update

October to December

Temperature summary

For October and October-November-December as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for October-November-December will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-ond-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For October, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. For October-November-December as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for October-November-December will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-ond-v1.pdf

Met Eireann believes Thursday will be a 'danger period' as it tracks Hurricane Lorenzo

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Met Eireann has said it is monitoring the progress of Hurricane Lorenzo. The forecaster said Thursday looks like it will be a "danger period" as the storm moves along the North Atlantic, but added it will have a better idea in the next 24 hours. It is expected to recede to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the vicinity of Ireland. However, Met Eireann's Deirdre Lowe said even if Lorenzo does not make landfall, it could still bring stormy conditions.

Ms Lowe said: "It could be a problem for Ireland on Thursday alright. "It's predicted to track to the west of Ireland, so it's not predicted to make landfall - but it still brings the risk of severe winds, possibly stormy conditions and very high seas. "That track may change, so we are keeping a close eye on it." The forecaster said they will be able to better make decisions and issue any relevant warning once various computer forecasts become consistent.

 

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/met-eireann-believes-thursday-will-be-a-danger-period-as-it-tracks-hurricane-lorenzo-953881.html

Saturday 5 Oct - Monday 14 Oct

Into the weekend it is likely that unsettled, wet and windy weather will continue to dominate, especially in the north and west with the risk of coastal gales. The best of any drier short-lived interludes will be most likely towards the southeast of the UK. During the following week and beyond, the unsettled weather may begin to become more generally confined to the north and west of the UK, with occasional spells of drier and brighter weather, particularly in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary around average, although some cold nights are possible under any clear skies.This may also bring an increased risk of mist and fog overnight and into the mornings.

Tuesday 15 Oct - Tuesday 29 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. Unsettled conditions are likely in the north and west at first, although we may see some periods of fine and dry weather developing particularly in the south and southeast, which may bring some brighter days, but with an increasing risk of overnight fog and perhaps some frost. However, it is likely that northern and western parts of the country will continue to see more in the way of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average, but with settled weather, some warmer days and colder nights are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Whatever is left of Lorenzo is very unlikely to be a ‘tropical storm’ if and when it affects Ireland. The author of this piece obviously has little understanding of tropical systems and their character by definition.

UK heavy snow alert: Britain faces COLDEST winter in decades - long-range weather forecast

BRITAIN is on alert for what is feared could be the coldest and most savage winter in decades to hit next month blanketing the nation in deep snow beyond Christmas and into 2020.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1184625/UK-weather-heavy-snow-long-range-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2019-Met-Office

Great news mild winter it is then ​​​​​​​