Some really good runs today Neil, GFS ens trending down also, lots to be positive about today, the chances of an early Dec cold outbreak increasing.

Looking ahead in the fairly reliable time-frame, it appears from GEFS rainfall predictions that the last week in November could well be rather wet in this corner of the country.  But at least we can console ourselves with the high likelihood that at least it will be mild.

Excellent GFS run if you like negative NAO possibilities and cold weather. The promising thing is that changes are now approaching the semi-reliable and we are not in a zonal rut right now.

Once the UK is in a zonal rut, it proves extremely hard to shift it, so the longer we can avoid traditional, unrelenting zonality, the better for our winter prospects.

Hopefully the election will have to be cancelled

Let's see if the met update is more bullish today 🙂

as someone said earlier this morning, as long as the 12z’s hold consistency the 6z can be put aside with a little more confidence 

Still signs of a colder interlude but the signal for a high pressure bomb from the south is growing. 

All that said - the main cluster of the ensembles was showing near or above average temperatures and the 0600 operational has now popped much more into the milder cluster.  A colder interlude is certainly possible late November/early December but it not a theme that seems to be maintained...... Indeed I've just had a look at the EC 30 day broadscale 500 Mb pattern forecast and if anything it hints a very climatological southwesterly by mid-December and in the run up to Christmas - much in keeping with each of the three monthly outlooks that we've seen from the MO lately. 

Today's ECM30 shows very mild conditions persisting for much of the next month. I'd be amazed if the Met Office monthly update today overrides that guidance, unless it was signed off before the latest run.

No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

22nd November has to be some sort of record? 

ROFL. Another 'winter is over' post and we're still over a week from the start of winter.

The mild weather hasn't even set in yet; the ECM 30-dayer isn't gospel and in the reliable timeframe there is no sustained mild weather.

Here's the ECM 00z ensemble for London, showing growing support for a cold snap before the signals become mixed again.

And we know how reliable they are lol....

Of course you are kidding 

So? - Winter is over??

Meanwhile from +192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=1&mode=7

Just to contrast:

Both models coun't be more different if they tried to:

GFS for day 10: @ 240z

ECM for day 10 @ 240z:

The 12z GFS an d ECM will be one to watch and see if this northerly outbreak will continue - or will it be the case when this time around the GFS shows the northerly yet the ECM shows southerly wind and both models flip yet again? Time will tell!?

The latest Met Office update suggests an increased risk of colder and wintry conditions. The opposite of what I suggested after looking at the ECM30.

Our experiences from other recent years though shows us that when there has been a lot of uncertainty in the model output, it has usually always been the milder scenarios which have ended up actually happening in the end, whereas I don't recall there being all that many instances during these years when it is the colder scenarios which have ended up happening.

For now at least, I am therefore not really seeing anything to suggest that this will change during this winter and it's not just the ECM 30 day outlook which is going for a milder period ahead as both the JMA and the CFS appear to be agreeing with that just now to a certain extent.

^^ Yes it’s going to turn much milder for December,as all the seasonal models are so accurate.You only have to look at last winter and see how they performed to confirm that to be true 🙄🤣