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Shropshire
26 November 2019 17:49:00

Well election day has loomed into view on the GFS today and all runs have shown a carnival of zonality.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
David M Porter
26 November 2019 18:05:24


 


ECM30 doesn't look all that mild to me? 






Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Indeed- I don't see a prevalence of orange colours all over the UK at any one time in any of those maps.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
26 November 2019 18:23:05
It just goes to show the (un)reliability of the ECM 30 day data and the risks of forecasting (or cherry picking) using charts at over 2 weeks away.
Downpour
26 November 2019 18:31:32


 


Indeed- I don't see a prevalence of orange colours all over the UK at any one time in any of those maps.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Brian is a well known mild ramper 😂


Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
26 November 2019 18:44:17
Almost a link, ECM teases
picturesareme
26 November 2019 19:23:20

Looks like going Zonal early next week,not surprising.December has never been a very wintry month in the U.K.

In my lifetime only two Decembers stand out 81 and 2010, can not recall much snow away from those years.

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


 


Erm December 95??

Rob K
26 November 2019 19:39:37

Almost a link, ECM teases

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Which link are you referring to? All I can see is a high toppling across the UK 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
26 November 2019 19:44:25


 


 


Erm December 95??


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


And 2009. Early days at the moment but I’m not seeing too many signs of any prolonged notably cold weather in December in current output.


Gusty
26 November 2019 20:10:38

Danglers and clippers for a time later this weekend and into Monday. 850Hpa's seem to be levelling out at values more conducive to cold rain rather than anything wintry at this stage though. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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idj20
26 November 2019 21:02:39


Danglers and clippers for a time later this weekend and into Monday. 850Hpa's seem to be levelling out at values more conducive to cold rain rather than anything wintry at this stage though. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Even in this upcoming high pressure set up, we will still somehow manage to stay wet. Think the Kent Rain Deflector has gone into reverse polarity. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
tallyho_83
26 November 2019 22:01:16

Deja vu here of the start of winter 2018 when on 1st December 2018 the NAO went positive - looks like the same is forecast to happen again by the models on 1st December 2019 (1st day of meteorological winter): TYPICAL


 



 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


White Meadows
26 November 2019 23:21:08


Deja vu here of the start of winter 2018 when on 1st December 2018 the NAO went positive - looks like the same is forecast to happen again by the models on 1st December 2019 (1st day of meteorological winter): TYPICAL


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 




careful, you don’t want to get called out for talking about the NAO ...as it’s like viewing model output in a different way, much like a forecast. 


 

tallyho_83
27 November 2019 00:25:39

Just looking at the 18z ensembles for Inverness:


Some ensembles going down to -10c @ 850 hpa and majority go down to -5c @ 850 hpa post 4th Dec and many are between -5 and -10c in latter stages with some going down to below -10c @ 850hpa!!


No sign of anything mild - at least for Scotland. Just a brief milder interlude around 3rd Dec then that's it. - So milder air never reaches the north and cold air does hang around and is never too far away!!



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2019 07:41:21

GFS presents a picture of HP over or near the UK coming up from the SW (Tue 3 Dec, Mon 9 Dec) toppling across the UK in each case followed by a short spell of westerlies turning northerly, and repeat. Bad news for cold weather fans is that the northerlies fringe us to the E, and the easterlies generated as the HP topples draw in air from the S, not a long fetch E-ly. ECM similar, though tentatively inclined to draw in air from colder directions.


GEFS long forecasted cold to 3rd Dec (and dry to 5th), then a few days above average before dropping back to a scatter around normal around the 6th. Patchy rainfall from that date onwards.


Scotland, though, looking a bit colder than England and Wales as described above.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roadrunnerajn
27 November 2019 07:43:41
Very mobile pattern after next Tuesday, the Scottish ski resorts could do well in these cold WNW winds.
If anything the pattern has a very A typical early winter look to it.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Brian Gaze
27 November 2019 07:46:19

Looks like the upcoming "cold snap" is the portal back to normality after the more interesting autumnal synoptics we've had since October.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
27 November 2019 07:52:22
Looks like the “mild snap” up here is turning into a disappointing one day wonder before more typical average or chilly conditions return.
Argyle77
27 November 2019 08:24:19

And like clockwork back to positive NAO as we head into the winter months,but late December ,maybe early Jan,we might see a long fetched Easterly,it's been s while....

ballamar
27 November 2019 08:45:46
Misplaced optimism chart today
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_1.png
Looking like could be quite zonal mild south chilly north.
tallyho_83
27 November 2019 08:53:35


And like clockwork back to positive NAO as we head into the winter months,but late December ,maybe early Jan,we might see a long fetched Easterly,it's been s while....


Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


Yes! Bang on 1st December things go positive - 1st day of meteorological winter  = same occurred on 1st Dec 2018 last year but it never went negative until Spring time.



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
27 November 2019 09:25:17

There is no escape from the "modern winter"


At least the homeless won't freeze to death and there will be many more over the coming years of a Boris majority govt


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
27 November 2019 09:25:25
The cooler spell seems to have shrunk to three days but hopefully there will be some sunshine and frost over the next few days... in fact as I write the sun has broken through here. After the milder blip it’s impossible to tell what will happen next as there is so much scatter but I don’t really like the look of those bright yellows and oranges to the south and purples to the north.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
27 November 2019 10:10:09

A lot of the runs show the meteorological Maginot Line (the fabled cold block to the northeast) breaking down as a long feed west or southwesterly moves in. Far too early to be confident about how things will play out but there is an air of normality returning as we head into December. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Lionel Hutz
27 November 2019 10:57:01

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London


Signs on GFS of another cold shot developing around the 8th with the Op looking like a bit of a mild outlier(though far from being on its own either).


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
27 November 2019 11:02:56


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London


Signs on GFS of another cold shot developing around the 8th with the Op looking like a bit of a mild outlier(though far from being on its own either).


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


 


Worth noting that 27 /50 ecm ensembles have a Northerly on 10 December

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