Well election day has loomed into view on the GFS today and all runs have shown a carnival of zonality.

 

---

Indeed- I don't see a prevalence of orange colours all over the UK at any one time in any of those maps.

---

It just goes to show the (un)reliability of the ECM 30 day data and the risks of forecasting (or cherry picking) using charts at over 2 weeks away.

---

Brian is a well known mild ramper 😂

---

Almost a link, ECM teases

 

Erm December 95??

Which link are you referring to? All I can see is a high toppling across the UK 

---

And 2009. Early days at the moment but I’m not seeing too many signs of any prolonged notably cold weather in December in current output.

---

Danglers and clippers for a time later this weekend and into Monday. 850Hpa's seem to be levelling out at values more conducive to cold rain rather than anything wintry at this stage though. 

---

Even in this upcoming high pressure set up, we will still somehow manage to stay wet. Think the Kent Rain Deflector has gone into reverse polarity. 

---

Deja vu here of the start of winter 2018 when on 1st December 2018 the NAO went positive - looks like the same is forecast to happen again by the models on 1st December 2019 (1st day of meteorological winter): TYPICAL

 

 

 

---

careful, you don’t want to get called out for talking about the NAO ...as it’s like viewing model output in a different way, much like a forecast. 

 

Just looking at the 18z ensembles for Inverness:

Some ensembles going down to -10c @ 850 hpa and majority go down to -5c @ 850 hpa post 4th Dec and many are between -5 and -10c in latter stages with some going down to below -10c @ 850hpa!!

No sign of anything mild - at least for Scotland. Just a brief milder interlude around 3rd Dec then that's it. - So milder air never reaches the north and cold air does hang around and is never too far away!!

---

GFS presents a picture of HP over or near the UK coming up from the SW (Tue 3 Dec, Mon 9 Dec) toppling across the UK in each case followed by a short spell of westerlies turning northerly, and repeat. Bad news for cold weather fans is that the northerlies fringe us to the E, and the easterlies generated as the HP topples draw in air from the S, not a long fetch E-ly. ECM similar, though tentatively inclined to draw in air from colder directions.

GEFS long forecasted cold to 3rd Dec (and dry to 5th), then a few days above average before dropping back to a scatter around normal around the 6th. Patchy rainfall from that date onwards.

Scotland, though, looking a bit colder than England and Wales as described above.

 

---

Very mobile pattern after next Tuesday, the Scottish ski resorts could do well in these cold WNW winds.
If anything the pattern has a very A typical early winter look to it.

---

Looks like the upcoming "cold snap" is the portal back to normality after the more interesting autumnal synoptics we've had since October.

---

Looks like the “mild snap” up here is turning into a disappointing one day wonder before more typical average or chilly conditions return.

---

And like clockwork back to positive NAO as we head into the winter months,but late December ,maybe early Jan,we might see a long fetched Easterly,it's been s while....

Misplaced optimism chart today
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_1.png
Looking like could be quite zonal mild south chilly north.

Yes! Bang on 1st December things go positive - 1st day of meteorological winter  = same occurred on 1st Dec 2018 last year but it never went negative until Spring time.

---

There is no escape from the "modern winter"

At least the homeless won't freeze to death and there will be many more over the coming years of a Boris majority govt

---

The cooler spell seems to have shrunk to three days but hopefully there will be some sunshine and frost over the next few days... in fact as I write the sun has broken through here. After the milder blip it’s impossible to tell what will happen next as there is so much scatter but I don’t really like the look of those bright yellows and oranges to the south and purples to the north.

---

A lot of the runs show the meteorological Maginot Line (the fabled cold block to the northeast) breaking down as a long feed west or southwesterly moves in. Far too early to be confident about how things will play out but there is an air of normality returning as we head into December. 

---

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London

Signs on GFS of another cold shot developing around the 8th with the Op looking like a bit of a mild outlier(though far from being on its own either).

---

 

Worth noting that 27 /50 ecm ensembles have a Northerly on 10 December