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Gandalf The White
28 November 2019 23:21:52


 



Yes. The next few days should be a good deal brighter than the recent muck most of us have had to endure.


P.S. Neil . Who are you calling senior? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I assumed he was referring to your wisdom and good manners?


wink


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
28 November 2019 23:24:56


Looks pretty wet and wild to me ?


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


You forgot the word 'cold'


The end of the run has a heck of a lot of potential and shows a pattern that keeps popping up; it may mean nothing but sometimes these glimpses are a harbinger of a pattern change.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
29 November 2019 00:03:15


Just for fun Metcheck is suggesting snow evening of Election Day 12th December in SW London



Maybe if it is still there in weeks time would make interesting model watching, but if it did snow could it affect turnout ?


 


https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=KT2&locationID=59343&lat=51.4&lon=-0.3&dateFor=12/12/2019


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


Northerners snowed in - Brexit cancelled 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
29 November 2019 07:17:33


 


Northerners snowed in - Brexit cancelled 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Or as would be reported up here, “Snow in the Borders, England cut off”?


Overall it is the same general pattern this morning with chilly conditions for the next few days then more mobile with a spell of milder weather and then the chance of colder northerly incursions.


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 November 2019 08:05:07

Well-defined HP for the beginning of next week, and on GFS only slowly declines towards the weekend (though a BBC forecast today suggested rain/showers  from the Atlantic  by Thursday) then departing from yesterday's script with a cold LP over the UK on Sun 8th followed by northerlies. After that, a weakish Scandi high for election day but with LP sliding past the SW (looks like cold rain to me rather than snow) then an HP on Sun 15th with some cold air drifting past to the south. 


Big change from yesterday so it doesn't look if the model is stable for week 2. ECM also different to yesterday but the LP on the 8th develops over Scandi, not the Atlantic, and its following N-lies run down the N Sea more than over the UK


GEFS dry to 7th, cold at first, then mild. After that increasing amounts of pptn and temps mostly below average with some really cold runs esp in Scotland, and snow row values appearing even for the S Coast (Brighton =2 on election day, Scottish locations getting into double figures). 


All interesting but I think that week 2 will look different again in a few days' time!


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
29 November 2019 08:28:37


Well-defined HP for the beginning of next week, and on GFS only slowly declines towards the weekend (though a BBC forecast today suggested rain/showers  from the Atlantic  by Thursday) then departing from yesterday's script with a cold LP over the UK on Sun 8th followed by northerlies. After that, a weakish Scandi high for election day but with LP sliding past the SW (looks like cold rain to me rather than snow) then an HP on Sun 15th with some cold air drifting past to the south. 


Big change from yesterday so it doesn't look if the model is stable for week 2. ECM also different to yesterday but the LP on the 8th develops over Scandi, not the Atlantic, and its following N-lies run down the N Sea more than over the UK


GEFS dry to 7th, cold at first, then mild. After that increasing amounts of pptn and temps mostly below average with some really cold runs esp in Scotland, and snow row values appearing even for the S Coast (Brighton =2 on election day, Scottish locations getting into double figures). 


All interesting but I think that week 2 will look different again in a few days' time!


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Yes, I think it’s absolutely right to emphasise the uncertainty for week 2.  I think it’s fair to say that predicting the behaviour of the jet stream is proving tricky: we seem to be moving towards sitting on the cold side again but the path and destination aren’t clear.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arcus
29 November 2019 08:55:28
A classic example of the 850s not telling the full story next week for those in the SE in particular - at the surface temps are likely to be below average for most of the week if ECM has it correct.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
tallyho_83
29 November 2019 09:00:37

Look NE @ 300:


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
29 November 2019 10:16:27
First proper tease of a proper easterly outbreak on the 00Z. It doesn't quite make it but it's certainly chilly. Look while you can as the 6Z is on the way out...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
29 November 2019 10:50:58
Less building of heights on this run, ensemble trends important. Still think there is a big chance of decent cold (longer than modelled in this op run) the potential is there
nsrobins
29 November 2019 10:54:38
The GFS OP output’s volatility is the key message and a vigorous mobile flow is the form horse into December.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
29 November 2019 11:22:21

The GFS OP output’s volatility is the key message and a vigorous mobile flow is the form horse into December.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


a vigorous cross polar mobile flow?!!

Russwirral
29 November 2019 12:53:18
that makes it several runs now where the GFS FI shifts the placement of lower pressure systems south and builds in higher systems to the far north. Pushing us north of the Jet, and into a much colder airmass.

Pressure dropping broadly over mid Europe and the Med is always a good sign in my books.

Details of this can be argued for days, but a general pattern is starting to emerge


Rob K
29 November 2019 13:05:18
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2019112906/graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
29 November 2019 13:34:59


 


In Summary "Uncertain" 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Steve Murr
29 November 2019 14:25:19
Lovely cold air settling in here for the week now - Not quite the very cold uppers are arriving as they skirt East.

Interesting now the models have significantly backed away from the more mobile outlook with the next cold spell lining up - realistically for the SE a sub 3c first week is looking likely & perhaps 1 milder day creeping in before more polar air arrives from the North-
idj20
29 November 2019 16:19:56

Even if we aren't seeing stellar winter charts in the medium range just yet, the southern contingent of the UK will appreciate the relatively dry start to December what with high pressure never being too far away. Most welcome after what has been a very wet November at this end.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Steve Murr
29 November 2019 17:01:28
Great 12z especially for Scotland - deep snow by the end of the run in the ENE of England & Scotland !!
❄️❄️❄️
bowser
29 November 2019 17:13:49

Great 12z especially for Scotland - deep snow by the end of the run in the ENE of England & Scotland !!
❄️❄️❄️

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Indeed. A slug of mild to coolish zonal stuff to look forward to (for here) then maybe hints at something colder after. All too early of course.

ballamar
29 November 2019 17:14:24
Encouraging patterns for a period that is usually mild zonal - plenty of snow events in this run
Whether Idle
29 November 2019 17:15:42

Encouraging patterns for a period that is usually mild zonal -

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Are you referring to the usual British Winter there?


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ballamar
29 November 2019 17:18:14


 


Are you referring to the usual British Winter there?


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


haha fair point!!

Rob K
29 November 2019 17:19:05
LOL at GFS winding up a monster Channel low at the end of the 12Z. Needed a laugh anyway, as I'm locked in the office with the police response to this latest terrorist nutter...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
29 November 2019 17:57:01
Eyes down for a cracking ECM....
Argyle77
29 November 2019 18:06:53
so much for a mild zonal December that some posters were adamant was happening on all weather forums.

Gone a bit quiet all of a sudden haven’t they 😀
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