theweatheroutlook

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Saint Snow
02 December 2019 13:14:00


I'm a firm believer in the adage that everyone should be born with a strict allocation of exclamation marks.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Noted!!!!!


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Richard K
02 December 2019 16:37:51
12z GFS seems to be taking an interesting (N NE -erly) turn during next week
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Steve Murr
02 December 2019 16:41:27
Indeed probably the best run of the winter-
Look at the 10HPA Strat wind its now fully across the pole forcing SSW - Impacting the bend of the jet !
Lovely!!
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2019 16:42:38

12z GFS seems to be taking an interesting (N NE -erly) turn during next week

Originally Posted by: Richard K 


 


Yes stunning GFS 12z so far " The Famous Election Day Blizzard " we can but dream.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
02 December 2019 16:43:34

Indeed probably the best run of the winter-
Look at the 10HPA Strat wind its now fully across the pole forcing SSW - Impacting the bend of the jet !
Lovely!!

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
02 December 2019 16:51:27


Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Woah, you know the old saying, Kieren: Speak of the devil and they are sure to appear!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Steve Murr
02 December 2019 17:03:40


Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Everything crossed lol!!.. Must be a good omen as just touching Freezing point here already :)

Richard K
02 December 2019 17:05:21

Ah, but it goes mild at the end


edit: (briefly by the look of it!)

Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
JACKO4EVER
02 December 2019 17:13:17
I have limited slow internet access - can anyone post a tasty chart or two? Thanks
Hippydave
02 December 2019 17:53:05

I have limited slow internet access - can anyone post a tasty chart or two? Thanks

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Depends on whether cold and wet are tasty I guess


It's a variation on a zonal theme as far as I can see with some chilly enough air to give some wintriness for some, biased towards the north and/or higher ground. I imagine there could though be some low level transient snow falling just about anywhere if it came off as shown. For balance should also say before we get to the chilly stuff we have to see off the collapsing HP which brings milder air for all for a time, with increasingly unsettled weather to boot.


So not stellar in the sense of HLB and screaming easterlies/northerlies but not terrible either.


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
JACKO4EVER
02 December 2019 18:24:03


 


Depends on whether cold and wet are tasty I guess


It's a variation on a zonal theme as far as I can see with some chilly enough air to give some wintriness for some, biased towards the north and/or higher ground. I imagine there could though be some low level transient snow falling just about anywhere if it came off as shown. For balance should also say before we get to the chilly stuff we have to see off the collapsing HP which brings milder air for all for a time, with increasingly unsettled weather to boot.


So not stellar in the sense of HLB and screaming easterlies/northerlies but not terrible either.


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


cheers dave, sounds like a typical cool zonal pattern 

Shropshire
02 December 2019 19:18:31


 


cheers dave, sounds like a typical cool zonal pattern 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Yes not sure what the excitement is about, a zonal pattern that as we know from past experience, trends further North closer to the time.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
ballamar
02 December 2019 19:18:44
ECM throws up an interesting Election Day with potential for heavy rain sleet or snow
Shropshire
02 December 2019 19:24:54

ECM throws up an interesting Election Day with potential for heavy rain sleet or snow

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


How would any of the PPN to the SW be anything other than rain ? 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
02 December 2019 19:35:32


 


Yes not sure what the excitement is about, a zonal pattern that as we know from past experience, trends further North closer to the time.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


The reasons for the interest is that cold zonality offers possibilities than  south-westerly or Bartlett don't - and because there's no basis in fact for you assertion that everything trends north.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Richard K
02 December 2019 19:53:43


 


How would any of the PPN to the SW be anything other than rain ? 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


To be fair, the GFS precipitation charts do show a spell of wintry precipitation for example in the south east. Not very reliable of course, but none of it is at this range

Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
doctormog
02 December 2019 19:55:08
Iā€™m not sure about excitement but there is plenty of interest in the medium term model output. Some milder weather during this week and then potentially more unsettled with colder shots. Whether these are as potent as the GFS 12z op outlier suggests is very questionable but it is worth watching.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
02 December 2019 20:03:00

I’m not sure about excitement but there is plenty of interest in the medium term model output. Some milder weather during this week and then potentially more unsettled with colder shots. Whether these are as potent as the GFS 12z op outlier suggests is very questionable but it is worth watching.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


In a nutshell, spot on.


All the variations of early winter weather are on offer over the next ten days, from fog and frost through mild and wet and cold and wet, wintry in favoured places and just maybe more widely.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Steve Murr
02 December 2019 20:49:35
Its understandable for everyone to be cautious with this type of attenuated pattern as historically they don't stay amplified for long - However to take the approach of - Its the same old same old is always a mistake especially when it means you overlook the detail.

Normally the UK 'cool' zonality scenario allows for one type slider low to pass by allowing for a transient ridge to hold the atlantic back before eventually it drives through with the risk of a bit of snow on the front edge - again some back edge PM air usually presents itself hence the oscillation between a range of say for arguements sake -4c then a lift over 0c before back down to -2c in a NW flow.
>>> Cool Zonality.

What we have here ( modelled ) is wave 1 of cool zonality IE the slider scenario before further amplification of the jet sees this transition to potential Proper cold air because of the quasi stationary low to the ENE ( The anchor point is crucial )

Whats noted in both the models is the secondary phase sees the jet stream diving further south not the traditional pulse East.
This ( I think I mentioned yesterday ) is due to the alignment of the Stratospheric PV over the pole being in a fairly unique position ( displaced over Northern Russia ) the 10HPA wind over the pole is SSW which is supporting the deflection of the jet along the same axis > Due south.

With that in mind there is a 'higher' than average chance that cold can be sustained as the trough axis appears to go from NW > SE to more N> S instead of backing back W>E

based on that & looking at the bigger picture theres genuine reason for excitement which doesnt have to be at the expense of caution > but should be given more credit over the 'same old same old style of forecasting ....
DPower
02 December 2019 21:15:16

No real surprise to see 12z op run from the gfs due I think to  strat forcing. The 12z ecm run much less inspiring considering its bias for over amplifing the pattern normally. The morning runs will tell us if we are heading for our first potent cold snap/spell of the winter.

Steve Murr
02 December 2019 22:33:19
The 18z is all but a mirror image of the 12z

NB the jet at 210 is bent south like a boomerang.
No mild SW flow appearing for a good while after that then.....
White Meadows
02 December 2019 22:33:53


No real surprise to see 12z op run from the gfs due I think to  strat forcing. The 12z ecm run much less inspiring considering its bias for over amplifing the pattern normally. The morning runs will tell us if we are heading for our first potent cold snap/spell of the winter.


Originally Posted by: DPower 

second, you mean?


Pretty icey out there again right now.

White Meadows
02 December 2019 22:36:07

Lots of deep cold flooding into Scandinavia again next week on the pub run


 


edit: Rudimentary signs of a Scandy high development later on. A recurring theme.

Argyle77
03 December 2019 00:26:39
Think the forecasters going for December to be above average CET ,along with the whole winter too,will wished they had waited longer before making their winter forecasts.
I'd be very surprised if Dec finished above average looking at current output,trending colder after the weekend the cet not higher.
Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 00:35:51

Think the forecasters going for December to be above average CET ,along with the whole winter too,will wished they had waited longer before making their winter forecasts.
I'd be very surprised if Dec finished above average looking at current output,trending colder after the weekend the cet not higher.

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


I admire your commitment to giving upbeat views but you’re being a tad premature as the charts only get to mid-month at the moment.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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