theweatheroutlook

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hobensotwo
12 January 2020 11:21:00
At first glance it looks like a step away from cold this morning from the GFS OP.. Let's see where it sits amongst its ens.
idj20
12 January 2020 11:35:20


wow?! Only one comment on here since the 18z model - silence speaks volumes as they say! Just looking at the O6z run.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Model fatigue setting in. We still have to get through a week of storminess which is the last thing most of us need to what essentially is a tenuous set up for cold that would probably flatten out come the moment.  The best we can hope for is at least a few days break from the Atlantic train by this time next week.

Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
12 January 2020 11:42:19
It’s next to pointless taking anything from OP output run to run especially in the longer range. If it’s consistent and moves into the sub +180 range then fair enough - it starts to attract my attention. As such the current offerings don’t qualify.
A better impression of trends IMO is to study the mean (moyenne) of the suites. As a broad brush of longer term ideas it’s a decent tool.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
12 January 2020 11:55:59
The -10s have disappeared from the London GEFS. A generally flatter picture this morning.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
12 January 2020 11:58:51
GEFS are as unreliable as the Op runs they are up and down like a whores drawers. Anything post 144 is guidance only
tallyho_83
12 January 2020 12:22:13




Model fatigue setting in. We still have to get through a week of storminess which is the last thing most of us need to what essentially is a tenuous set up for cold that would probably flatten out come the moment.  The best we can hope for is at least a few days break from the Atlantic train by this time next week.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Nice to hear someone. Well in a few days time winter will be at it's half way mark.


Yesterdays Op runs were amazing some ENS were going down to or below -10c @ 850hpa. The only hope we are having is via the ECM so we shall see if the 12z ecm follows the 06z GFS otherwise at best we are looking at a few days of fine weather only around 22nd -24th however it does look like this morning runs show that the HP will get flattened by the exceptionally strong jet.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
12 January 2020 12:55:26

It’s next to pointless taking anything from OP output run to run especially in the longer range. If it’s consistent and moves into the sub +180 range then fair enough - it starts to attract my attention. As such the current offerings don’t qualify.
A better impression of trends IMO is to study the mean (moyenne) of the suites. As a broad brush of longer term ideas it’s a decent tool.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I agree but even that won't help much if it's the mean of an evenly spread massive range, as it usually is. I find the mean of a cluster useful though, or even the mean of two tight knit clusters giving some confidence in  two possible outcomes.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
12 January 2020 13:05:42
Even looking at the clusters at the moment there is not much consensus beyond an increased chance of a pattern change in the 7-10 day period. That leaves the possibility of a cold outcome but not a probability. Definitely a case of “watch this space”.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
12 January 2020 13:29:49

I think Retron's approach is as good as anything if you are looking for a genuine cold spell rather than a transient incursion of polar maritime air. It is simple, consistent and removes most of the subjectivity. I think a lot of people spend too much time analysing the output but each to his/her own! At no point this winter so far has there been anything more than a tenuous signal for a cold and wintry period. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
12 January 2020 13:39:47


At no point this winter so far has there been anything more than a tenuous signal for a cold and wintry period. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


For most of the winter there has not even been that. NOw there may just about be something that fits that description, although “very tenuous” may be more apt currently.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
lanky
12 January 2020 13:43:55

GEFS are as unreliable as the Op runs they are up and down like a whores drawers. Anything post 144 is guidance only

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I would say anything post 120 is just a mathematical curiosity based on the way the model is set up and has very little to do with the real world


 


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
JACKO4EVER
12 January 2020 13:46:44




Model fatigue setting in. We still have to get through a week of storminess which is the last thing most of us need to what essentially is a tenuous set up for cold that would probably flatten out come the moment.  The best we can hope for is at least a few days break from the Atlantic train by this time next week.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I did mention the flattening scenario yesterday.


If it’s a proper cold spell your after then I suspect there is little in the output to suggest such. More runs needed, but in the meantime some severe stormy conditions to come for many parts with yet more rain on the cards. 

Sevendust
12 January 2020 18:05:28


 


I did mention the flattening scenario yesterday.


If it’s a proper cold spell your after then I suspect there is little in the output to suggest such. More runs needed, but in the meantime some severe stormy conditions to come for many parts with yet more rain on the cards. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Latest ensembles from the GEFS 12z look flatter again in FI

Hippydave
12 January 2020 18:16:40

Hmmm pretty uninspiring 12z set - typical model watching really GFS amplifies and ECM flat, then once ECM shows some amplification GFS decides to go flat. 


Anything more than transient cold (or down here cool) shots on the back of passing depressions seems as far aware as ever according to the GFS Op and Ens


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Whether Idle
12 January 2020 18:42:07


pretty uninspiring 12z set -


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


 I  will raise that to deeply uninspiring.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
12 January 2020 18:45:59
It’s weird because I think it’s a decent set so far (ECM to complete). The GFS op again is in the milder part of the suite and GEM shows decent mid Atlantic amplification again after dropping it earlier. ECM going the same way as GEM.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
12 January 2020 19:04:03

It’s weird because I think it’s a decent set so far (ECM to complete). The GFS op again is in the milder part of the suite and GEM shows decent mid Atlantic amplification again after dropping it earlier. ECM going the same way as GEM.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


ECM crashes and burns somewhat in FI.  Next!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
tallyho_83
12 January 2020 19:16:38

Quite a flip in the ECM run from a northerly...



 


 


To this...in 12z run



 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
12 January 2020 19:50:54

Yesterday's tentative signals for some amplification appear to have largely vanished this evening - though GEM still manages a glancing northerly. Was it a mirage? Or will it reappear in subsequent runs?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
marting
12 January 2020 19:55:20

Things are moving around so quickly at the moment. I would not be surprised if the mid Atlantic block or something similar was back in the morning. Plenty to keep an eye on at the moment with a block due in our locality in about 10 days and the ECM average shows that nicely https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
tallyho_83
12 January 2020 20:06:10

Love the GEM for Aberdeen:


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
12 January 2020 20:36:51

Trendsetter 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
12 January 2020 21:03:06


Quite a flip in the ECM run from a northerly...



 


 


To this...in 12z run



 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

If those hunting cold and snow just give up, like I have, then these sort of charts won't be quite so disappointing. Winter is a fail this year, and there's nothing in the models that makes me think otherwise. We are running over 3c above average in January, and Moscow is having its mildest winter in a generation.


Giving up is the only sane option left.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
12 January 2020 21:17:27


If those hunting cold and snow just give up, like I have, then these sort of charts won't be quite so disappointing. Winter is a fail this year, and there's nothing in the models that makes me think otherwise. We are running over 3c above average in January, and Moscow is having its mildest winter in a generation.


Giving up is the only sane option left.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


We might as well close this thread then until March 1st.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
jhall
12 January 2020 21:35:12


Things are moving around so quickly at the moment. I would not be surprised if the mid Atlantic block or something similar was back in the morning. Plenty to keep an eye on at the moment with a block due in our locality in about 10 days and the ECM average shows that nicely https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24


Martin


Originally Posted by: marting 


It's remarkable for the ensemble mean to show such a clear signal that far out. Mostly you get a very washed-out pressure pattern when all the ensemble members are averaged.

Cranleigh, Surrey

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