Not a terrible GFS 6z op - some stormy stuff this week, some snow for the high ground in the North at times and a quiet, settled and quite cool spell before more mobility and a chilly end. Could be better, could be worse.

Agreed. 
There now appears to be firm consensus on a UK high by this weekend with ‘seasonally’ cool settled weather and some frosts.

Thereafter a number of options - taking us to nearly the end of January. Crystal balls required after that.

As I said, Rob - I am no expert, so I have been watching and extrapolating from the clever stuff here, then looking at the met sites,  Metcheck for example, that do give a tentative forward look - even though we all know how dodgy that can be and that the best-guesses can change.  For my location this is currently showing a remarkably dry February with temps only a bit below freezing at times. Only 24th is showing possible snow.

Slipping on to March - of course this is guesswork - it looks milder, but with snow indicated for 12th, 24th and 28th. I appreciate this a just a bit of fun and not to be taken as reliable - but if not true this is at least credible, based on the current winter. But as I stress, I am not a meteorologist and am just applying a vaguely scientific eye to easily-available information - so your superior take will always be fascinating.

TWO  Winter February forecast [01/12/2019] said: "Milder and wetter than average."

First half

Quite unsettled weather is forecast for much of the period with temperatures generally often close to average, but above average at times in the south. Rainfall levels probably slightly above the average with drier spells most frequent in the south and east.

Second half

The middle part of the month may bring a spell of colder weather with a risk of sleet and snow for a time in all regions. Milder and unsettled conditions are considered likely to return in the north and west. Quieter and drier spells are more likely in the south and east.

Keep it coming!

Roger

The same as Rob - what are you looking at for the month of February 

Amended 

Why is the 06z ensembles at Wetterzale.de only going out until 21st January?

That's usually because it's not finished updating yet.

ECM 00z ensemble for London

A strong signal for a cooler/rather cold interlude next week before uncertainty creeps back.

The wind chart shows high pressure is likely to be in control for most.

Rainfallpattern as expected - a well-advertised wet spell in the next 2-3 days followed by very little at all thereafter.

Taking it's time. 

It's there on Meteociel.  

There are data flow problems this morning. Ours has completed successfully.

London link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

Thanks Brian - how did I guess that the Op run was a cold outlier come the end of run!??

I wondered how to get the ensembles on TWO. So thanks.

It is not possible to say there will be no severe cold spells or snow in February. It is  almost possible to now say however that the first two months of winter will have been extremely mild and snow free. If we exclude March from "winter" then even a cold February, good as it would be, is unlikely to make it a memorable winter for me (As I have had several). Now if February and March were to be severely cold then........ 

’Severely cold’ is rare and unrealistic.

I’d be happy with three days of sub zero with sone snow lying around - but I’m getting old now 👍

It will be very interesting to see how this high pressure scenario plays out during the next couple of weeks. IME even "faux cold" scenarios don't stick around for long. More often than not there's too much of a breeze or muck comes in off the Atlantic over the top of the high.

Yet again the Operational is a cold outlier at end:

GEM still going with a big northerly plunge - but now into eastern Europe

ECM monthly from Hungarian met O has been updated: Week 4 (20th -26th Jan) has the SW of the UK being the coldest part of the country some -1 to -3c below average:

I anticipate due to frost and fog as it's below average across northern France as well.  

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20200113_0000+33600.png

Main difference this morning with the GFS op is it now shows mild conditions for much of next week. Spring-like at times with the high pressure.