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doctormog
18 January 2020 08:40:09

No surpsie to see that yet again the -5C line proved elusive for London, despite the past few days' runs showing it being reached.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=6

I honestly can't remember a winter where we've only had 12 hours of it by the 18th January!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


You can have ours today, it’s not that exciting. 


BJBlake
18 January 2020 09:12:17
It gets harder to get a lasting cold spell each year because the jet energy keeps building and further north. How much co2 was released from all that biomass burning in Aus?
We need to seed the oceans with sequestron iron, to turn the baron seas into algae baths to sop up all that excess co2, the air travel tax should pay for civil aircraft to do this. Then we might see the models returning the now rare as hens teeth Scandinavia HP - best chance of this perhaps next winter, because QBO easterly, still near Maunder low, so may be sun spots will start again but not be too bold and hopefully a sutras ENSO. Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again. Apologies for being slightly off topic, but it is dire for us coldies. On the bright side, my heating bill is lower this year!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
nsrobins
18 January 2020 09:45:32

Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


Even with a skiing holiday you might struggle to find decent snow this season - apart maybe from the US Rockies resorts.


The outlook isn’t all doom and gloom though. I see some data this morning continues to increase the chances of a significant reduction in N pole zonal winds up to end if Jan, with an outside chance of a minor SSW by first week of Feb. With the lag effect we might see this resolve into HLB by mid-Feb, and should said HLB form in the right place we might go a bit cold.


All ifs, buts and maybes I agree but I’ll grasp anything that even remotely resembles a chance of proper winter at the moment. 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
sunny coast
18 January 2020 11:54:36
Well at least we had a frost this morning and probably quite a sharp one the next 2 nights
Gusty
18 January 2020 12:00:20

Spring like as we move into February. 



Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2020 12:06:48
There's often a few mild spring-like days at Candlemass
The Beast from the East
18 January 2020 12:57:50

It gets harder to get a lasting cold spell each year because the jet energy keeps building and further north. How much co2 was released from all that biomass burning in Aus?
We need to seed the oceans with sequestron iron, to turn the baron seas into algae baths to sop up all that excess co2, the air travel tax should pay for civil aircraft to do this. Then we might see the models returning the now rare as hens teeth Scandinavia HP - best chance of this perhaps next winter, because QBO easterly, still near Maunder low, so may be sun spots will start again but not be too bold and hopefully a sutras ENSO. Then if we get another 1989 - we'll know we need to book a skiing holiday to see a snow scene again. Apologies for being slightly off topic, but it is dire for us coldies. On the bright side, my heating bill is lower this year!!

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


Interesting idea? Has anyone done a study to look in more detail at it?


Sorry, OT!


Yes, my central heating is from the 1970s, but still working (just!) Always grateful for it not to be tested too much. The Beast back in Feb 2018 was the last time I really had to put it under strain


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
18 January 2020 13:40:08


 


Even with a skiing holiday you might struggle to find decent snow this season - apart maybe from the US Rockies resorts.


 


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Scandinavia is doing just fine


 


https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days


 

JACKO4EVER
18 January 2020 17:40:01


Spring like as we move into February. 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


should at least make a change to perpetual autumn 

doctormog
18 January 2020 17:49:31
That chart from the 06z run of the GFS, when compared with the 12z equivalent, highlights the futility of looking at individual runs at that time range.
Lionel Hutz
18 January 2020 18:08:31


 


Scandinavia is doing just fine


 


https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Hardly. That map shows Southern Sweden and Southern Finland free of snow. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Bertwhistle
18 January 2020 18:20:32


 


Hardly. That map shows Southern Sweden and Southern Finland free of snow. 


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


Yes but that's not really where the ski resorts are. More significant is the coverage of 1-10cm snow where many of the resorts are.  Skiing on those kinds of snow depths is at best uncomfortable and at worst impossible.


Edit: completely off piste. Sorry.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
tallyho_83
18 January 2020 18:32:25


 


Yes but that's not really where the ski resorts are. More significant is the coverage of 1-10cm snow where many of the resorts are.  Skiing on those kinds of snow depths is at best uncomfortable and at worst impossible.


Edit: completely off piste. Sorry.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Many parts of eastern Europe are snow free  in fact all of Europe except maybe balkans but gosh this is a really snowfree Europe. The UKRAINE, Baltics, Eastern Europe and western Russia, Saint Petersburg & Moscow are snow free.


Half of Sweden is snow free - very rare to see so little snow given it's January!?


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Bertwhistle
18 January 2020 18:34:39


 


Many parts of eastern Europe are snow free  in fact all of Europe except maybe balkans but gosh this is a really snowfree Europe. The UKRAINE, Baltics, Eastern Europe and western Russia, Saint Petersburg & Moscow are snow free.


Half of Sweden is snow free - very rare in middle of January!?


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Iran looks frosty but inconsistent on your map Tally.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Whether Idle
18 January 2020 19:11:05

I quite like the ECM 12 z run.  Nowt spectacular, just not often stupidly mild.  Cold in northern Scotland in deep FI on a WNWly!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
picturesareme
18 January 2020 19:30:02


 


Yes but that's not really where the ski resorts are. More significant is the coverage of 1-10cm snow where many of the resorts are.  Skiing on those kinds of snow depths is at best uncomfortable and at worst impossible.


Edit: completely off piste. Sorry.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


That's not snow depths. It's how much has fallen in previous days. In the previous 7 days some mountainous parts of southern norway have seen between 150cm-250cm fall.. good for skiing wouldn't you say?

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
18 January 2020 19:44:45

snow cover in Europe, Its dire:


https://www.ventusky.com/?p=51.9;12.1;4&l=snow 

Never seen anything like this
Kingston Upon Thames
Whether Idle
18 January 2020 19:50:05

I think the ECM is very promising by the standards of this winter.  Hey ho, its only the MO thread.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
18 January 2020 19:51:54

snow cover in Europe, Its dire:


https://www.ventusky.com/?p=51.9;12.1;4&l=snow

Never seen anything like this

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


Yes, and this (below) shows the positive and negative anomalies. Our loss seems to be Central Asia’s gain https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=17&ui_set=2 


doctormog
18 January 2020 19:53:46


I think the ECM is very promising by the standards of this winter.  Hey ho, its only the MO thread.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Perhaps, although not dissimilar charts have appeared and disappeared a few times this winter. If it progresses with time in a consistent way it will be more of interest I think.


Whether Idle
18 January 2020 19:59:49


 


Yes, and this (below) shows the positive and negative anomalies. Our loss seems to be Central Asia’s gain https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=17&ui_set=2 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


No snow here = no anomaly


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Devonian
18 January 2020 21:49:38

There's often a few mild spring-like days at Candlemass

Originally Posted by: four 


Great! Perhaps it will give me relief from the daily battle to get through the Dartmoor snowdrifts to work!

fairweather
18 January 2020 22:00:36


 


Yes, and this (below) shows the positive and negative anomalies. Our loss seems to be Central Asia’s gain https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=17&ui_set=2 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


been monitoring this all winter. Moscow  has been virtually snow free all winter except for the odd short incursion. I am sure this is unheard of by the end of January even in their recent mild winters, Everything seems to have shifted East. Maybe in a decade's time we will pick up some of Canada's scraps!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Bugglesgate
18 January 2020 22:02:32


 


Great! Perhaps it will give me relief from the daily battle to get through the Dartmoor snowdrifts to work!


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Had a "winter experience" this morning when I lost traction on black ice  on a stretch of road - managed  not to hit anything or end up in a ditch.  Was on a minor road, so fair enough.   Saw a couple of nasty accidents  though on the main A339 that were almost certainly ice related.  I think the   benign  weather so far  has lulled  the LA  gritters into torpor around here.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
LeedsLad123
18 January 2020 22:26:37


 


Scandinavia is doing just fine


 


https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


half of Sweden and Finland completely snow-free in the middle of the coldest month of the year on average isn’t ‘doing fine’. Helsinki, Stockholm and Oslo are all expected to reach 6-7C over the next week, when average highs are below freezing. Even up north it’s much milder than average with unremarkable snow depths.


The Baltic states are doing terribly too, with all of Estonia, Latvia sand Lithuania free of snow.. its a dreadful winter for snow all over a Europe.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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