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Retron
16 January 2020 12:21:37

If you're after colder weather the trends in the model output are tenuous but encouraging at present. For example the mean t850hPa by day ten for this location is down to -8°C on the 06z GFS suite.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It even hits -5C down here*, for one data point (6 AM on the 19th). -5C at 850! In January! Incredible.


(We have, of course, only had 12 hours of -5s at 850* so far this winter. I would wager that's the lowest amount in the Internet era, if not before...)


* - London gridpoint on Meteoceil.

Leysdown, north Kent
Tim A
16 January 2020 12:51:16


 I would wager that's the lowest amount in the Internet era, if not before...)


* - London gridpoint on Meteoceil.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)


Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.


 


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Russwirral
16 January 2020 13:01:26


 


I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)


Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


 


2013/2014 was boring for cold, but presented enough crazy weather for some discussion.  Alot of moaning admittedly.  But the Physics being why it happened attracted alot of discussion.


 


This year has just been like October on ground hog day.  Last frost for us was back on Dec 2nd... had some snow in Novermber (a few flakes)


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctormog
16 January 2020 13:04:37
Don't get me wrong and think that I am predicting a cold spell, I am not. I am justing pointing out a trend towards something a bit more seasonal. Such trends have occurred to a lesser extent in recent weeks and amounted to zero. There's no reason currently to think this won't be the same, but I will keep an eye on it just in case.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
16 January 2020 13:24:30

It would be rather ironic if Brexit day was bitter with a chill wind blasting in 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
16 January 2020 13:28:10


It would be rather ironic if Brexit day was bitter with a chill wind blasting in 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Longer term output (ECMWF) suggests a mild end to Jan after a brief cool snap, but much scope for change at this early point. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
16 January 2020 13:33:57


 


I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)


Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


 


2013/14 had some spectacular storms.


I know not nice for those directly impacted, but the storm on 5th December was an absolute monster. Below is from New Brighton, directly opposite Liverpool waterfront on the other side of the river. 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2020 13:47:14

 


Definitely some hope of a first cold spell of the winter probably still an outside bet at this stage.  The GFS wil almost certainly pick it up before ECM though  it nearly always does.


 


 


 



 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
16 January 2020 14:41:42


 


Definitely some hope of a first cold spell of the winter probably still an outside bet at this stage.  The GFS wil almost certainly pick it up before ECM though  it nearly always does.


 


 


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


 


There's 5 members going for -10 there.


That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!!


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
16 January 2020 14:47:04


 


 


2013/14 had some spectacular storms.


I know not nice for those directly impacted, but the storm on 5th December was an absolute monster. Below is from New Brighton, directly opposite Liverpool waterfront on the other side of the river. 


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


We avoided most of those storms that winter, but there was high frequency of thunder, which I was totally cool with. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
16 January 2020 14:47:59

London snow Row up to 35!!



 


Liverpool - 49


Newcastle - 88


Sheffield - 52


Birmingham - 41


Glasgow - 75


Inverness - 178


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
16 January 2020 14:56:51


London snow Row up to 35!!



 


Liverpool - 49


Newcastle - 88


Sheffield - 52


Birmingham - 41


Glasgow - 75


Inverness - 178


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Definetly an easterly bias


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Saint Snow
16 January 2020 15:16:41


 


 


Definetly an easterly bias


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Darren S
16 January 2020 15:41:39


 


There's 5 members going for -10 there.


That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!! 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Just a few days earlier than the snow came for the SE last year (1st/2nd Feb) 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
jhall
16 January 2020 16:37:02


 


I wonder if Brian can confirm whether the weather forum has been the quietest since 2001? (excluding UIA)


Certainly this winter has been boring from my point of view.  2013/14 was also horrendous though although I cannot recall whether there were any decent charts in that winter.


 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


How about the winter of 2006-7: Dec 6.5, Jan 7.0, Feb 5.8.


It would be hard to get much worse than that. I'm sure there must have been people here then saying we would never get another cold winter, but just three years later we had the coldest (taking all three winter months into consideration) since 1978-9.

Cranleigh, Surrey
JACKO4EVER
16 January 2020 16:58:31


 


 


Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


slighly raised eyebrow Saint at the uptick in cold possibilities but seeing as we are working from a mean of zero chances so far this winter it’s a step in the right direction. Some good old fashioned fog and frost will do me, if we can tap into a northerly then great but I think the block will come under too much pressure and sink south. Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. 

Saint Snow
16 January 2020 17:01:47


 


slighly raised eyebrow Saint at the uptick in cold possibilities but seeing as we are working from a mean of zero chances so far this winter it’s a step in the right direction. Some good old fashioned fog and frost will do me, if we can tap into a northerly then great but I think the block will come under too much pressure and sink south. Tomorrow’s runs will be interesting. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


My expectations are suitably small! 



Not had a good fog for ages; would be most welcome.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Devonian
16 January 2020 17:35:35


 


 


Smacks of a northerly flow (Sheffield is the giveaway - they love an easterly). Norwich gets 67, but Edinburgh 69, which is less than Glasgow)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I (for a fleeting second or two) thought you meant the forecast northerlies were like those of '67 and '69...

Gandalf The White
16 January 2020 19:22:08

I think it's quite rare to get sub-500 thickness values into England (500-1,000 hPa).


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
16 January 2020 20:51:27


 


 


 


There's 5 members going for -10 there.


That's almost enough for a patented Retron graph!!


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


If people think it's still pretty poor then look back at the very first post by Brian in this thread and see the ensembles he posted on December 27th. These are way more promising so some progress. Looks like a battle for a sensible mean after the 25th. Will the individual pets align above or below the mean.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
16 January 2020 20:59:36


I think it's quite rare to get sub-500 thickness values into England (500-1,000 hPa).



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Those are the 500hPa values not (500-1000hPa). The 500-1000hPa values would be in the 520s on that chart.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gusty
16 January 2020 21:17:46


 If people think it's still pretty poor then look back at the very first post by Brian in this thread and see the ensembles he posted on December 27th. These are way more promising so some progress. Looks like a battle for a sensible mean after the 25th. Will the individual pets align above or below the mean.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Its poor. All those big dippers are as a result of a cold NNW'ly flow. Admittedly it would bring some interest to the NE of the UK briefly. In virtually all such cases they are temporary and the jet overides flattening things thereafter. Not one perturbation dares brings an east of north flow.


As we move deeper into winter these polar NW'ly flow teasers will naturally become colder as the source of air to our north becomes colder due to natural seasonal progression.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gandalf The White
16 January 2020 22:22:06


 


Those are the 500hPa values not (500-1000hPa). The 500-1000hPa values would be in the 520s on that chart.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Oops, sorry, no idea why I said that.  Quite obviously that chart doesn’t show what I said.


It's been a hard day.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
16 January 2020 23:09:23


 


Its poor. All those big dippers are as a result of a cold NNW'ly flow. Admittedly it would bring some interest to the NE of the UK briefly. In virtually all such cases they are temporary and the jet overides flattening things thereafter. Not one perturbation dares brings an east of north flow.


As we move deeper into winter these polar NW'ly flow teasers will naturally become colder as the source of air to our north becomes colder due to natural seasonal progression.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Quite. But it's all relative and in the scope of this winter......

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Matty H
16 January 2020 23:46:40


 


Tally the PV is being tickled on the tummy and wriggling around a bit. Some deflection, not major disruption.


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Nothing changes in Bonersville on the weather forum model threads does it. Tally still sucking the life out of valuable reply time with its incomprehensible guff

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 

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