Are we in for a back loaded Winter I wonder ?? 

If you mean less stupidly mild than the first half then probably. The jury is still out on whether it includes anything wintry however.

Back loaded into April probably!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

If modelled correctly, the HP situated East of Canada and the US could be interesting..

Long way out though. 

ECM 192

Lying? So far there is no sign of anything even falling away from high ground. Although you must have been incredibly unlucky not to get any lying snow last year or 2018 (or are you only classing meteorological winter and discounting March 2018?)

I don’t really remember any lying snow last year here. I hardly remember any falling snow for that matter.

If Judah is correct, possible methinks  

“There hasn't been much opportunity to tweet about the #polarvortex (PV) the past month but finally some signs of change. The biggest vertical energy pulse (needed to disrupt the PV) in over a month predicted resulting in a stratospheric -AO for next week. More disruption possible”

Corrected 😉

My thinking is that the improvement in short-term accuracy comes from an increase in the number of data points, along with a narrowing of the gap between calculations as the model run progresses (say, from 12 hrs, 24 hrs, 36 hrs etc. to 03 hrs, 06 hrs, 09 hrs, 12 hrs, and so on).

The result is an exponential increase in the number of potential small errors, which (exponentially) become big errors eventually - you know, the thing about a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a hurricane.

Re Gandalf's comment that rounding errors should only have a negligible effect - I would disagree with that, particularly when dealing with our part of the world, where even the subtlest changes in a similar general pattern can result in vastly different weather on the ground. Rounding errors are the bane of iterative models (which is what these are).

A tenth of a degree centigrade here, half a millibar there, and ten days later, and thousands of calculations further on, the error gets multiplied into something substantial. But on a coarser model, with fewer data points, and a 12-hour gap between iterations, any tiny errors have less opportunity to take on a life of their own.

It's nothing to do with the mathematical calculations themselves becoming less accurate. It's just that the numbers on which those calculations are based become open to more errors as more calculations need to be made. 

As the days grow longer....the cold grows stronger.....not. 

Next Monday's wind event looks like turning out to be virtually identical to what Brendan did for us last Monday in terms of wind speed and timings for here at the south eastern end of the country, a long drawn out process involving an elongated warm sector with 40 mph sustained SSW winds and up to 60 mph gusts starting in the afternoon and lasting into the small hours  

 

While it goes without saying on how we are doing very poor in terms of proper snow and cold, thankfully the recent extra high pressure is preventing this Winter from being anywhere as bad as 2013/14 for this neck of the wood.

Yes, boring outlook for time to come, so went an looked at UIA first,

High pressure gone by Friday, then zonal through the next two weeks. Colder NW-ly around Tue 28th / Fri 31st / Tue 4th, milder SW-ly around Mon 27th / Thu 30th / Sat 1st / Thu 6th. Suggestion of fronts trailing down across the country (as expected from the above pattern) by rainfall chart for week 2 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

GFS & ECM agree, with minor differences in timing (GFS version above)

GEFS temps a little above average then down and up starting with a dip on the 28th/29th, at which date rainfall starts up and continues to the end of the run on 7th Feb, more rain throughout than in yesterday's forecast. Temp swings more pronounced in S England than in Scotland where temps in most runs a bit below normal. Some E coast locations escape the worst of the rain.

Based on the model output for the next couple of weeks, then OK. However, even once we get past the range of the current GFS op runs we will still have another three weeks or thereabouts of the meteorogical winter to go.

....back to where we were in December then.

Give it a few more weeks Moomin. Its not looking great, admittedly, but we know how quickly things can change.

The Mid Winter easterly has dodged us again though.

Its starts as a seed from one single run though. I shall keep the faith and my hopes alive for another 3 weeks before conceding.

Given that model reliability drops away beyond around a week (and that’s the long wave pattern, not the detail) I think there’s another 5 weeks before we will know how the end of February is looking. Then, of course, there’s March; I know many people don’t value snowfalls in March but in the first week or two it can still be winter-like. Beyond that I’d prefer some warmth.

I think that is true of a March following an average or cold winter but after such a mild winter it would take something on the scale of the previous March Beast to get anything of note and even that would almost certainly be brief. It won't be helped by soaked ground and high soil temperatures either.

I remember the winter 05/6 was pretty rubbish until a UK high retrogressed and brought cold with frequent and heavy snow showers to north-facing coasts (I remember Bren posting pics of around his parents' place in North Wales, deep with snow). The high drifted over Scandinavia and a front from the NW brought more widespread snow the first weekend in March; then after a nice, cool, dry week, a major front was forecast to move into mainland UK from the west with heavy snow. It stalled just west of the coast of NW England so we only got about 3-4cm - but places in Cumbria, West/Central Scotland, and Wales had up to 50cm level snow.