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Gavin D
01 February 2020 11:37:34

Brian Gaze
01 February 2020 12:09:59

Piece in The Times today suggesting face masks are ineffective and cloth ones could even increase the risk of developing cold / flu (new or old).


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
01 February 2020 12:19:03


Piece in The Times today suggesting face masks are ineffective and cloth ones could even increase the risk of developing cold / flu (new or old).


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


A week or so ago an expert said that a mask was useful if you already had a bug as it reduced the chances of spreading the virus but could be worse than useless as a precautionary measure because the mask material gets damp and viruses can adhere to the surface.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
01 February 2020 12:27:19


Piece in The Times today suggesting face masks are ineffective and cloth ones could even increase the risk of developing cold / flu (new or old).


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I am not wearing them. My understanding is that they work but only if used right and regularly disposed of. My main precaution is avoidance.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
01 February 2020 12:30:08


 


A week or so ago an expert said that a mask was useful if you already had a bug as it reduced the chances of spreading the virus but could be worse than useless as a precautionary measure because the mask material gets damp and viruses can adhere to the surface.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 That's basically what the Times article says. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
01 February 2020 12:53:40


 


I am not wearing them. My understanding is that they work but only if used right and regularly disposed of. My main precaution is avoidance.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Are you holed up at home and not going out? I don’t know where you live but the chances of infection right now from even using the Tube in London must be vanishingly small.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
01 February 2020 12:56:46


 


Are you holed up at home and not going out? I don’t know where you live but the chances of infection right now from even using the Tube in London must be vanishingly small.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


No I still go out but have cut back.



  • No going into city centres or crowded venues

  • Shopping at times when not many people are about

  • No social gatherings


 


I've also bought enough supplies such that I can completely isolate myself for several weeks if necessary.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arcus
01 February 2020 13:01:43


 


No I still go out but have cut back.



  • No going into city centres or crowded venues

  • Shopping at times when not many people are about

  • No social gatherings


 


I've also bought enough supplies such that I can completely isolate myself for several weeks if necessary.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Well I'm off into town for the football (circa 3,000 gathered together), then some shopping, a pint, then back home on the bus. That would appear to violate all your pointers!


(Plus the wife works at York Uni).


 


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
westv
01 February 2020 13:07:01
I thought part of the benefit of a mask was that it avoided accidental touching of the nose or mouth.
At least it will be mild!
Quantum
01 February 2020 13:08:11

I thought part of the benefit of a mask was that it avoided accidental touching of the nose or mouth.

Originally Posted by: westv 


This is also true.


However I feel the same can be achived with regular hand washing and alcohol gel when out.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
westv
01 February 2020 15:54:39
I read somewhere that gel is far less effective than soap and water. True??
At least it will be mild!
Quantum
01 February 2020 16:00:29

I read somewhere that gel is far less effective than soap and water. True??

Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes I think it's true.


I only use the gel when I'm out and about after touching a surface.


Soap and water when at home.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2020 18:07:12

New paper suggests R0 is 4.0


That's really really bad.


I should add it is completely inconsistent with the most recent data.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
01 February 2020 18:21:55


New paper suggests R0 is 4.0


That's really really bad.


I should add it is completely inconsistent with the most recent data.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


”New paper”?


xioni2
01 February 2020 18:25:32


 ”New paper”?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



doctormog
01 February 2020 18:27:59


 




Originally Posted by: xioni2 



Quantum
01 February 2020 18:28:51


 


”New paper”?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
01 February 2020 18:35:07


Thanks. I feel that may be a little premature based on current evidence.


xioni2
01 February 2020 18:37:17


 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If they are right (R0=4.08 and a mortality rate of 6.5%), that would be worrying, but I don't know how accurate their modelling is, it could be well off the mark.

Quantum
01 February 2020 18:37:34


 


Thanks. I feel that may be a little premature based on current evidence.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I also think that R0 is on the high side, will point out there are other studies which put it at much lower values. But reporting this for completeness.


As I say my own crude analysis of the most recent data would seem to suggest an R0 of 4.0 (at least at this current time) is a little inconsistent.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2020 18:39:26


 


If they are right (R0=4.08 and a mortality rate of 6.5%), that would be worrying, but I don't know how accurate their modelling is, it could be well off the mark.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


The mortality rate is very believable, the R0 a little less so.


It may simply be out of date, because R0 could easily have been 4 a few weeks back.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
01 February 2020 18:42:25


It may simply be out of date, because R0 could easily have been 4 a few weeks back.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Their cut off date was 25 Jan.

Arcus
01 February 2020 19:46:22
It was notable that there were more people wearing masks in York city centre today. I counted probably about 8 on a one hour trip around town (normally zero to 1). Had my pint at The Phoenix, just about opposite That Hotel.

Credit to Chester FC fans, who were numbering nearly 700 at the match.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Quantum
01 February 2020 20:42:02


Polynomial fit works better than an exponential. Good sign.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Justin W
01 February 2020 21:38:48

Reports that bodies are being sent from hospitals to crematoria without being identified.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?

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