Exactly , we haven't had a winter this year and we are not going to get one so bring on some early warmth. Some extraordinarily early warmth building to our south again just like last year. Hopefully a very warm spring and hot Summer ahead.

Generally I get fed up with seeing unusual warmth even at the end of winter, as it's just a waste of what could be a cold day but must admit this autumn/winter has been so relentlessly wet and overcast locally that some early warmth and a lack of rain will be most welcome.

The postage stamps don't give any reason to think the HP will move anywhere interesting from a cold POV, so really a case of hoping the pattern doesn't get flattened nearer the time as has been common for the last 2 1/2 months

T2m temps are generally topping out at 15c or so but I'd imagine you could add a couple of degrees to that if the sun's out - the strength of the sun is already getting noticeable down here (when it deigns to appear), so in another couple of weeks it should be even more so.

Usual caveat being it's a deep FI pattern and a long way to go before it's more than just a glimmer in GFS's virtual eye.

And i thought February 2019 (last year!) was a once in a life time unusually warm record breaking month reaching +20 or 21c in some parts and turns out we end up having exact same pattern this year - or at least what the model is forecasting to happen.

Meanwhile the AO is going of the scale positive:

• We saw the same last year when the zonal winds @ 10hpa went positive and the temp in stratosphere cooled further during February the AO and NAO went exceptionally positive like now. I wonder if they would need a larger scale: 

And yet down under that same run looks to produce a largely uninterrupted spell of below average temperatures for the bulk of Australia.. 

GFS seems to have stabilised on yesterdays's pattern, i.e. high pressure and calm to Friday, large and deep Low over Shetlnd on Monday (945 mb), disturbed westerlies for the whole week with a more local but still deep low over the Hebrides on Friday (975mb). See also comments in 'gales' thread. 

After that HP develops from the south with mild SW-lies, the anticyclone established over W Europe by Wed 19th. The Atlantic has another go on Sat 22nd with a depression coming in from the Atlantic, but that's a long way off.

ECM similar but reduces Friday's LP to a very weak feature.

GEFS ens is down and up in temps to Sun 9th, wet and cold to Fr1 14th, then dry-ish and very mild. Some regional differences- less rain in E in week 1; the NW stays wet throughout. Scottish temp less predictably mild with more variation than further S.

Interesting ECM out in FI and out in the GFS ensembles with the block building to our East. Just a case of where it all ends up!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Martin

Find it a bit odd that after a winter of zero cold snaps everybody is talking about record warmth in FI when in 5 days time we have GFS ensembles showing two days of -7C 850's and a snow row of 18 for London. In less than 5 days there are two serious storms. 

Crumbs maybe but .......

Yip, warnings now out for parts of Scotland on Monday for heavy snow 

Well those snow rows are probably just indicating a bit of sleetiness in the heaviest rain, but yeah, mild it ain't for much of next week. After that the ensembles have lost their tight agreement on mildness but it still looks well above average.

Totally agree that's one hell of a run , as you say giving low after low after low

Yes ECM @ 240Z:

Look the HIGH pressure is one major block covering Scandinavia and whole of Russia & Siberia.

GFS@ 240:

Quite a difference:

Its not called LaLa land for nothing, Tally ☺️

Sorry to have misled with this morning's summary. As Rob says, it's only taken 6 hours for GFS to do a volte face and produce a string of deep LPs off the Atlantic. But it could be different again tomorrow morning ...

This could be the squeezing of the PV ive heard mutterings of over the past week or so. You can see how thts taking shape above.

ECM usually is the form horse when sniffing out changes, more so when milder weather is returning... but still....

We shall see

Fixed 

bad news for us if the squeeze takes place the other side of the pole, it will just displace the vortex to our neck of the woods resulting in cold wind and rain (*usual caveats for mountains of the north apply)

ECM not playing ball, this evening's 240hr chart is as ugly as sin.

Atlantic just won't give up and back off!!