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xioni2
09 February 2020 22:20:09

I am getting increasingly concerned by Quantum's silence. Has he been infected by a deliveroo or Ocado driver? 

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 22:29:37


 


'Flusurvey is part of the UK's monitoring process for 'flu-like illnesses. I keep giving it a plug - but hardly anyone has troubled to show any interest so far! Maybe everyone has signed up for it and is just not mentioning that in order to give me a tweak? That must be it.


https://flusurvey.net/


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


nCOV 2019 is not like flu, it's far more like SARS.
There is much higher chance of developing serious pneumonia after about a week - and that's a medical emergency at best of times.

Add to that what seems to be unusually easy transmission and we really ought to be thinking of proper quarantine for anyone coming back from the far east particularly.
If this can be got on top of early, the return of 'normality' could be a matter of weeks.
If it is allowed to take off due to half-hearted measures now, it could be years before the risk recedes.
It may become endemic with new strains reguary identified.

North York Moors weather 
Ulric
09 February 2020 22:30:23


I am getting increasingly concerned by Quantum's silence. Has he been infected by a deliveroo or Ocado driver? 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Indoor temperature fell below 27C and he succumbed.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
10 February 2020 00:32:58
Latest from Singapore with a case by case analysis:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/novel-coronavirus-cases-in-singapore 

It is clear that the overwhelming majority of the 43 cases are related to Chinese visitors and those with close contact with them. Just a couple of unexplained cases.

Not surprisingly taxi drivers feature.

It would seem that fairly close contact is needed.

The article also states that some people have recovered and been discharged.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
10 February 2020 00:35:49



nCOV 2019 is not like flu, it's far more like SARS.
There is much higher chance of developing serious pneumonia after about a week - and that's a medical emergency at best of times.

Add to that what seems to be unusually easy transmission and we really ought to be thinking of proper quarantine for anyone coming back from the far east particularly.
If this can be got on top of early, the return of 'normality' could be a matter of weeks.
If it is allowed to take off due to half-hearted measures now, it could be years before the risk recedes.
It may become endemic with new strains reguary identified.


Originally Posted by: four 


There is zero evidence that it is anything like as dangerous as SARS.  It was reported after the early cases that the virus seems to attack the lungs and there’s an increased risk of pneumonia in some cases.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


CreweCold
10 February 2020 05:49:54


 


Most folks are somewhat prepared for, say, a 'flu epidemic. If they catch 'flu they will know to keep hydrated and will probably have soups and similar things to keep them going, tissues and suitable medication. 


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


You can tell the people that have never had flu. The last thing you want near you is any form of food. You wouldn't even be able to sit up and eat the food. Water is a struggle to get in you.


I can tell you from first hand experience, you actually feel as if you're going to pass away.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Brian Gaze
10 February 2020 07:11:58


 


I can tell you from first hand experience, you actually feel as if you're going to pass away.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I've had flu once and I disagree with that assessment. It may have been true for you but different people will be affected in different ways. For me it was nasty and I didn't feel like eating but I was able to drink water without problems. I could also stand up to go to the loo etc. but needed to lie down for much of the period. Having chicken pox in my early 30s was worse.


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Roger Parsons
10 February 2020 07:19:19



nCOV 2019 is not like flu, it's far more like SARS.
There is much higher chance of developing serious pneumonia after about a week - and that's a medical emergency at best of times.

Add to that what seems to be unusually easy transmission and we really ought to be thinking of proper quarantine for anyone coming back from the far east particularly.
If this can be got on top of early, the return of 'normality' could be a matter of weeks.
If it is allowed to take off due to half-hearted measures now, it could be years before the risk recedes.
It may become endemic with new strains reguary identified.


Originally Posted by: four 


Sorry four - you have missed my points. Words are easy - actions a tad more difficult. What I am saying is you'd have thought the "TWO corovirus crew" would understand and participate in a national initiative to monitor "flu-like illnesses". Perhaps I am doing you an injustice and you are all contributors? If so I'd be the first to sing your praises.


R

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Devonian
10 February 2020 07:20:32


 


You can tell the people that have never had flu. The last thing you want near you is any form of food. You wouldn't even be able to sit up and eat the food. Water is a struggle to get in you.


I can tell you from first hand experience, you actually feel as if you're going to pass away.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I don't doubt your, or Brian's, experience with flu. I know people who would say both.


I guess it shows that these virus's can be very nasty in some and not in others. The question still to be answered (as a generality) is how nasty is this corona virus? Atm the best answer is (?) nasty in some, not so in others.

Devonian
10 February 2020 07:26:18


 


You are correct the term pandemic refers to distribution rather than seriousness, Dev. I am sure you are right the term is often given the wrong emphasis. [Tho' any infectious disease capable of world-wide spread needs to be taken seriously]. My point is one should always be prepared for a serious epidemic as far possible - preparedness is the key. This is why surveillance is important and adequate planning for an outbreak.


Most folks are somewhat prepared for, say, a 'flu epidemic. If they catch 'flu they will know to keep hydrated and will probably have soups and similar things to keep them going, tissues and suitable medication. Hopefully 9/10 you will not need it, but when you do life is so much simpler if you are organised.


'Flusurvey is part of the UK's monitoring process for 'flu-like illnesses. I keep giving it a plug - but hardly anyone has troubled to show any interest so far! Maybe everyone has signed up for it and is just not mentioning that in order to give me a tweak? That must be it.


https://flusurvey.net/


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Done.

Roger Parsons
10 February 2020 07:28:54


You can tell the people that have never had flu. The last thing you want near you is any form of food. You wouldn't even be able to sit up and eat the food. Water is a struggle to get in you.


I can tell you from first hand experience, you actually feel as if you're going to pass away.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Sounds a horrible experience - would you say you were adequately prepared for it CC? My point was about preparedness.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
10 February 2020 07:30:08


 


Done.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


You are a true Devonian! Well done. R

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Maunder Minimum
10 February 2020 08:07:08


 


I believe this, MM, not least because no one forward plans on the basis that nothing bad will happen! You plan for the worst and hope for the best. A police officer I know says: "Expect the worst of people and you will never be disappointed." I could paraphrase that as "Expect every disease to be a potential pandemic, then you will always be ready and will sometimes be right." R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Here is the outline of the initial response by the NHS:


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51442314


- getting the framework in place for when it is needed.

New world order coming.
Roger Parsons
10 February 2020 08:30:16


Here is the outline of the initial response by the NHS:


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51442314


- getting the framework in place for when it is needed.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Thank you for that link, MM. It's interesting, not just for what is not being said, but for the careful use of language. It's a tricky pathway to negotiate, and one which had already been trodden [more or less reasonably] by contributors to this thread.



  1. Decision-makers want to be as open and honest as they can be, without overstepping the mark to cause panic, or understating the case to cause complacency. [No bigging-up!]

  2. They  want measures taken to be sufficient for the probable risk, but there are many unknowns and imponderables we will need to know or ponder. [No guessing games!]

  3. They know they will be blamed if the measures taken prove inadequate. They will also be blamed if proved to have spent excessively on resources or facilities which with hindsight were not needed. [Yes - it was your fault!]

  4. We all know the NHS is already under strain dealing with winter health issues which affect the elderly and vulnerable. Any crisis relating to the coronavirus outbreak will overlay existing long term organisational problems. [You see - it was your fault!]

  5. Any failings will be laid at the door of the NHS, which is already under scrutiny by government. [Hey - we've got a really good idea..]


Have I missed anything out?


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Brian Gaze
10 February 2020 08:49:42


 


You are correct the term pandemic refers to distribution rather than seriousness, Dev. I am sure you are right the term is often given the wrong emphasis. [Tho' any infectious disease capable of world-wide spread needs to be taken seriously]. My point is one should always be prepared for a serious epidemic as far possible - preparedness is the key. This is why surveillance is important and adequate planning for an outbreak.


Most folks are somewhat prepared for, say, a 'flu epidemic. If they catch 'flu they will know to keep hydrated and will probably have soups and similar things to keep them going, tissues and suitable medication. Hopefully 9/10 you will not need it, but when you do life is so much simpler if you are organised.


'Flusurvey is part of the UK's monitoring process for 'flu-like illnesses. I keep giving it a plug - but hardly anyone has troubled to show any interest so far! Maybe everyone has signed up for it and is just not mentioning that in order to give me a tweak? That must be it.


https://flusurvey.net/


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I have been aware of Flusurvey for quite a long time and check it in the winter months. I hadn't realised (despite the big red button) that one can join it. That probably reflects my shortening attention span and brain filter which automatically rejects things such as "join" or "sign up" etc. because it assumes someone wants to sell me something. I also check the government's weekly reports from time to time. They can be read here:


https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season


I agree that flu is a nasty thing. However, my experience of it wasn't as bad as CreweCold and I would tell people of average health not to unduly worry about it should they contract it. Having said that I have stumped up the £15 (or whatever it is) to Boots in the last few autumns to have the flu jab. That is despite having no reported underlying medical conditions or taking any medications. I work on the basis that I would rather not have the flu than have it. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Northern Sky
10 February 2020 08:55:03


 


I've had flu once and I disagree with that assessment. It may have been true for you but different people will be affected in different ways. For me it was nasty and I didn't feel like eating but I was able to drink water without problems. I could also stand up to go to the loo etc. but needed to lie down for much of the period. Having chicken pox in my early 30s was worse.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's been my experience too - both with the flu and chicken pox in my 30's, which was absolutely horrendous.


A question for those who have been following this - has the view of how the virus can be transmitted recently changed? I read that it wasn't as easily passed on as other forms of flu but have seen today this might be wrong?

Roger Parsons
10 February 2020 08:59:54


I have been aware of Flusurvey for quite a long time and check it in the winter months. I hadn't realised (despite the big red button) that one can join it. That probably reflects my shortening attention span and brain filter which automatically rejects things such as "join" or "sign up" etc. because it assumes someone wants to sell me something. I also check the government's weekly reports from time to time. They can be read here:


https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season


I agree that flu is a nasty thing. However, my experience of it wasn't as bad as CreweCold and I would tell people of average health not to unduly worry about it should they contract it. Having said that I have stumped up the £15 (or whatever it is) to Boots in the last few autumns to have the flu jab. That is despite having no reported underlying medical conditions or taking any medications. I work on the basis that I would rather not have the flu than have it. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Thanks for that. Brian.


I've been filling in flusurvey data for some years now. It only takes a few minutes a week during the "flu season". I think one of the stumbling blocks is that punters assume that they only want to hear from you when you have 'flu. But on reflection all will understand they are looking for the statistics of the well and unwell. They want to know when we are healthy.


They chose their words with care - they are looking at "flu-like illnesses". You don't need to self diagnose but you do get to say if you think it's just a cold.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
10 February 2020 09:01:44


 


Here is the outline of the initial response by the NHS:


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51442314


- getting the framework in place for when it is needed.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Finally taking it more seriously.

North York Moors weather 
Brian Gaze
10 February 2020 09:15:21



Finally taking it more seriously.


Originally Posted by: four 


It appears to be because a quarantined patient "threatened to breakout". It really is a shame Mad Mike Hoare died last week. I'm sure there would have been a role for him in this somewhere.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2020 09:50:39

136 now infected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Surely there is a case for getting everyone off the ship now as they appear to be sitting ducks. Is it possible the virus is circulating in the air con. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
10 February 2020 09:51:41


136 now infected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Surely there is a case for getting everyone off the ship now as they appear to be sitting ducks. Is it possible the virus is circulating in the air con. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It's a fantastic experiment though isn't it? 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
10 February 2020 09:53:14
Another four cases linked to the superspreader.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2020 09:59:03


 


It's a fantastic experiment though isn't it? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


It's definitely proving how easy it spreads. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
10 February 2020 09:59:37

Another four cases linked to the superspreader.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


All this does appear to confirm that the virus can be spread by those who do not yet have any symptoms. That is the classic requirement for a genuine pandemic, since it is impossible to control the spread (without the most drastic measures, such as those imposed on populations in China).


 

New world order coming.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
10 February 2020 10:09:07
If cases here now start to double every 2 or 3 days we're in trouble, too many have just been walking in with no checks at all while infected the past two weeks.
North York Moors weather 

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