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SJV
09 February 2020 07:46:39
Windy but not exceptionally so overnight. Some rain went through. Now it's blowing a right gale with heavy rain due shortly. It's gusting violently ahead of the front.
Brian Gaze
09 February 2020 07:47:49


Aren't the ARPEGE gust speeds at 10 metres whereas other models are at the surface? Wouldn’t that make a difference?


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


GFS gust speeds are at the surface. Arpege and Icon at 10m. Not sure about the others without checking.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 February 2020 07:48:52

Blowing a hooley when I got up an hour ago with rain splashing the windows, now relatively calm and rain stopped. BBC forecast showing a succession of squall lines so I expect the strongest gusts and rain to go hand in hand today.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roadrunnerajn
09 February 2020 08:01:25
Winds gusted to 60mph overnight nothing special down here. I expect winds will peak around 75mph in squall lines here.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Sevendust
09 February 2020 08:02:08

Potent squall running from W of Stoke back into S.Wales with thundery activity

Rob K
09 February 2020 08:07:58
Didn’t hear any wind overnight but it’s fairly noisy out there now. Max gusts in this area only 50mph so far. The ground is very waterlogged locally so would expect a few trees down if the gusts pick up more later.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
09 February 2020 08:13:38
One thing I hadn’t noticed before - the ARPEGE model has enough resolution to model the lee waves out in the North Sea from the wind crossing the high ground of the UK.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=79&mode=11&map=330 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
johncs2016
09 February 2020 08:20:09

I read in the local press that Edinburgh Castle was closed during yesterday due to high winds, but the wind wasn't as much as an issue here as it has been elsewhere in the UK (which is typical of the fact that the more "interesting" weather normally happens elsewhere in the UK, other than here).

Nevertheless, it is the amount of rain which we have had from that which has been a much greater issue here, rather than the wind. As at 7am this morning, this particular event had produced the incredible total of 35.0 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank, along with 30.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. Those aren't typos either, as that is the actual amount of rain which we have had from this particular event and it is still chucking it down with rain here, even as I write.

That already makes the 24 hour period up until 9am this morning, our wettest such 24 hour period of this winter by quite a distance and in most years, that would easily be enough to give us our wettest day of the entire year except that we had a few days during last summer, which were even wetter than than.

Now, the Met Office did issue both yellow and amber warnings for rain, but these areas were further to our south which means that we are actually outside those warning areas (although we along with everyone else in the UK, remain within that UK-wide yellow warning for wind). This shows that the Met Office have clearly underestimated the impact which the rainfall from this system would end up having in terms of the size of the area which this has covered, as we clearly should have at the very least, been under a yellow warning for rain (as well for wind), given what has now happened.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Bugglesgate
09 February 2020 08:24:38

Rough here overnight - seems to be increasing ferocity now.  Just   had a major power dip (enough to kill the computer)  Very unusual here as all lines  between the sub station and here are underground. 


I suspect we have just had a tree come down in one  of the  outlying   areas (that use overheads)   and  the power has been shed from that area.


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Retron
09 February 2020 08:36:39
Just as well I wasn't going to the wolf centre today - my usual route, along the A329(M), is blocked due to a fallen tree. Looks like a big one, too!

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/live-storm-ciara-hits-berkshire-17715147 

Leysdown, north Kent
speckledjim
09 February 2020 08:38:23
plenty of rain but not particularly windy here at the moment
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2020 08:53:03

Very windy yes but nothing spectacular so far. Amber warning only kicked in at 8 am and runs to 9 pm so a long way to go yet.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
09 February 2020 08:58:57

Just as well I wasn't going to the wolf centre today - my usual route, along the A329(M), is blocked due to a fallen tree. Looks like a big one, too!

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/live-storm-ciara-hits-berkshire-17715147

Originally Posted by: Retron 


That’s only a few miles from here but it doesn’t seem particularly wild here as yet. In fact things have calmed down a bit since I woke up at 7. Max gust at Farnborough only showing as 48mph so far. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
dagspot
09 February 2020 08:59:09
Bizarrely aircraft diversions are from
MAN to GLA, Canadian and Virgin widebodies enroute up... must be wild.
Neilston 600ft ASL
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:03:52
Not been above 40mph the past hour, but we had a gust of 70 shortly after midnight.
Passed 17mm of rain but the worst of that is probably through.
Quite a while since we had several hours of heavy rain combined with gales though
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:04:12
Strangely we are only generating 11.8gw of wind power currently

https://grid.energynumbers.info/ 

That’s less than most of last week, and much of the winter. Must be the relatively calm conditions for the onshore turbines in Scotland. Offshore should be going hell for leather unless power is being deliberately held back to manage supply.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
09 February 2020 09:04:29

Very wild here in Basingstoke at the moment. Just had a brief power outage for a couple of seconds a short time ago.


Just looking at the SSE Networks app and I can see I am very lucky to have power right now. At 0850 there was a major power failure in the Basingstoke area. Currently 762 postcodes are without power mostly in the centre, to the west and to the south of the town - as far as Preston Candover. That is a major outage. To the north east of the town centre where I am most areas still have power.


There are also major outages in the Chippenham area - 153 postcodes affected and to the south of Swindon around Royal Wootton Bassett.

Polar Low
09 February 2020 09:07:00
doctormog
09 February 2020 09:07:42

Strangely we are only generating 11.8gw of wind power currently

https://grid.energynumbers.info/

That’s less than most of last week, and much of the winter. Must be the relatively calm conditions for the onshore turbines in Scotland. Offshore should be going hell for leather unless power is being deliberately held back to manage supply.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes, it’s not overly windy across much of Scotland currently. If you could get rain-generated electricity though we would be doing well!


Polar Low
09 February 2020 09:11:01

i thought gfs was 10 metres Brian


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=13&sort=


 




 


GFS gust speeds are at the surface. Arpege and Icon at 10m. Not sure about the others without checking.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Retron
09 February 2020 09:12:47
The light's flickered twice just now... never a good sign!

(It's an old 100W bulb in this room, I'm guessing the newer LED type won't flicker briefly as the old ones do...)
Leysdown, north Kent
johncs2016
09 February 2020 09:15:34
I would also be interested to know what the central pressure is under the very centre of this storm is just now as the pressure at Edinburgh Gogarbank was down to 964.0mb and still falling sharply as at 9am this morning. If my memory serves me correctly, that is probably lower than anything which I have ever recorded here at TWO since I first joined in 2016.

From that, it's hard to believe that we were under a huge intense area of high pressure less than a month ago with the pressure in parts of the UK approaching 1,050mb. All of that is a very distant memory now, though.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:15:58

Strangely we are only generating 11.8gw of wind power currently

https://grid.energynumbers.info/

That’s less than most of last week, and much of the winter. Must be the relatively calm conditions for the onshore turbines in Scotland. Offshore should be going hell for leather unless power is being deliberately held back to manage supply.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I thought wind turbines were designed to lock the blades and stop turning above a certain wind speed. You really don't want blades spinning madly in 80mph winds! There are a number of You Tube videos demonstrating what can happen if they malfunction.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
The Beast from the East
09 February 2020 09:16:10

Is this as forecast or worse or less?


Not too bad here so far, but obviously reports from Basingstoke are concerning. Hopefully some weakening of the squall before it gets here


Sky dish shaking like mad and signal cutting out a lot. How strong a gust can these dishes take?


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2020 09:22:32


 


I thought wind turbines were designed to lock the blades and stop turning above a certain wind speed. You really don't want blades spinning madly in 80mph winds! There are a number of You Tube videos demonstrating what can happen if they malfunction.


Originally Posted by: Col 


They should be fine in these conditions. I think they start to struggle once winds get over 120mph. The all time wind generation record was broken in December during storm Brendan which had similar sized gusts to Ciara.


I think grid management is the more likely explanation. The wholesale price is virtually zero this morning. Hence a lot of imports from the continent. Suspect it makes more sense to switch off some wind turbines and keep the coal generators going because of the cost of stopping and starting, though I’m surprised re gas as that’s easy to flex.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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