An example of the disruption here in the flatlands - and a very rare sight indeed - the M11 just south of Cambridge deserted - closed yesterday due to fears that a wind damaged hangar roof at Duxford Imperial War Museum could blow off. A one-mile exclusion zone was enforced around the building as it was deemed unsafe.

The M11 and A505 were only re-opened today at 12:30.

I have to say the forecasts were excellent as were the warnings as well. Top notch accolades to all those involved.

I've seen enough round where I live - had this been a week day with more poeple around things might have been a lot worse.

The GFS has Lydd down for 33 mph with 51 mph gusts at this point, but the actual speed is 22 mph mean and I've just popped outside to read the meter and it felt quite calm (although it was in my east-facing back yard). 

All eyes on this coming weekend's system but I think it's looking more like a "standard" Atlantic winter storm hanging slightly further north away from the UK with marginally lower peak wind speeds than Ciara for here at Kent. While it is associated with a jet stream pulse, it doesn't seem to want to act as a piggy back for a secondary low which Ciara was. 

I think it will be assigned the Dennis name come the moment but by Met Eireann based on possible impacts to their part of the British Isles but doubtless the newspaper media will take it on as a huge once in a millennium nationwide affair.  

I'm posting a link here to this video on YouTube which shows a building collapsing into the RiverTeviot down in Hawick in the Scottish Borders, with that being one of the many impacts which Storm Ciara has had accross the country. Of course, I don't actually come from Hawick and am not down there just now.

However, there are members of my family who live in Hawick and for that reason, I always spend every Christmas down there as well as a couple of weeks during the summer. Luckily, this isn't an incident which has directly affected my family in anyway as both my Mum and my sister live in different parts of Hawick which are well away from where this incident happened.

However, Hawick is one of those close knit Scottish Borders communities where just about everyone knows everyone else. As a result of that, my sister had already posted  this link to an article about this incident on Facebook which shows the extent of the damage which has been caused by that.

Autumn 2019/20 continues for us here at Kent. While I still think wind speeds with Dennis are likely to be marginally lower than Ciara, it looks like being longer lasting with rain likely to be more of a feature thus bringing unwanted flooding to already saturated ground.

The sooner this sorry excuse of a "Winter" is out of the way, the better, especially where it may be worth hoping for the various models idea of high pressure building back over us for the second half of this month to bear fruit.

Although quite a severe storm I have a feeling that we have had quite a long period (2014-2020) without anything that major in terms of winds.

I had a quick look through my collection of newspaper articles on previous storms (1975-) and then linked these back to the Met Office Digital Diary to have a look at the actual synpotics for that event (and took screen prints so I could assess them all together)

IMO there are about 40 UK storms in that period of similar or greater severity that Ciara in that last 45 years so I would put Ciara as a once per year event somewhere in the UK (often Scotland)

This is a more frequent figure than I was expecting but having said that, Ciara affected a wide area of the UK including the south and south-east which is more unusual

As you say, it looks like its shaping into a virtual rinse and repeat between Saturday and Monday Ian with misery for some.

Yes I think that is the point. Ciara was not a once per year event for the south east. Dennis the Menace could be more typical.  

Speaking of Dennis (yes, this has been done to death by now but here's my take on it anyway) . . .

I see GFS is now trying to show 70+ mph gusts on Saturday night/early Sunday morning for the SE, pretty much close to the same strength as Ciara, thanks to a shortwave formation trying to take place while over the UK. It's also an overnight event so I suspect a restless anxious night awaits us, although it will do an excellent job in putting off the local night club closing time pissheads from hanging around outside.

AND it is even starting to look like going the same way the weekend after! That is a very long way off in forecasting terms but knowing our mid-latitude climate I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just frustrated that what was looking like a gentle end to the month is starting to evaporate away. 

This would suggest then, that there is a chance of us seeing Storm Ellen (which is the next name in that list after Dennis) during that following weekend. If that happens, it will then be the third named storm of this month after these being very hard to come by before this month started.

Q Why are storms like buses?

A You wait ages for one, and then three come along at once.

I always enjoy your excellent cartoon, Ian...

...but why is there a pair of testicles on Northern Ireland?

Cheers and it does, others had said the same thing so here's the re-amended version . . .

Indeed, and the upper catchment area for the Medway is in the amber area.  The river level upstream of Tonbridge is already close to the top of the banks, and with immaculate timing, the A21 Tonbridge bypass (which for non-locals crosses the Medway flood plain on a viaduct high enough up to remain open no matter how bad the flooding in the valley gets) is closed for 10 days from tomorrow for major repairs.

I wonder if we'll need a Flood Reports thread.

The River Severn in Tewkesbury is already flooding ,to a depth of 3.8m + ( a height above 2.8m causes flooding).Not so much of a problem yet,as this is the 5 or 6th time since September that the Severn has broke its banks ,but only to levels that are normal and seen on a regular basis.But its worrying if anything over an inch of rain falls this weekend,think it could potentially get a lot more serious.To get some context for the flooding impact, in 2007 the river depth reached a record 5.5m and 2014 about 5m

Tewkesbury vid - the Town Of 3 Rivers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=861ZnyBWeB0&t=424s

ground is so saturated that the showers we had today caused immediate mini lakes on the lawn. Not a good sign 

Indeed and this very same a21 was closed both ways this morning between north farm and vauxhall because of carriageway flooding. Pembury resovoir burst on Sunday flooding five oak green and parts of tudeley.  This rain on Sunday could be very bad news for Tonbridge

Went through flooding on the A264 and fields around Hartfield flooded.  Downgrade on netweather, 58mm this weekend for E. Grinstead but still enough to cause disruption.  Railway line between E. Grinstead and Dormans has a replacement bus service due to flooding on the line. 26.6mm in past 24 hours.