theweatheroutlook

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Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 00:28:54


 


Seasonal flu does not carry a higher threat, you don't get a global emergency for seasonal flu.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


As it stands now, in terms of hospitalisation and deaths seasonal flu is a significantly greater threat than Covid-19 outside China.  Of course that may change but I’d rather you dealt with the current reality rather than focussing on dire predictions.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 00:37:09


As I see it, I'm all for alarmism if it makes people stop and think about their hygiene standards and how they interact with others.

From what I've seen so far, people can't be that alarmed as I've seen people hacking their guts up without covering their mouths and people spitting on the street. Every time I see things like this, I can't help thinking we're screwed if something really nasty does come our way.


I genuinely believe with some people there is a case of 'well I've got it, you can have it too'.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Well, there’s been no shortage of alarmism and people are still oblivious of simple matters of personal hygiene. I’d lay a sizeable bet that the people you describe don’t wash their hands after using the toilet or before eating.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
21 February 2020 00:48:02


My point is Q, alarmism doesn’t help, it hinders.  Just because it happened before doesn’t mean you have to repeat it.  We should learn from mistakes. 


What is your definition of ‘pandemic’?  Mine is that an epidemic reaches further across the globe and is therefore quite infectious, but we already know this virus is infectious.  It doesn’t mean its symptoms are worse, or that morbidity rates are higher.  So, suggesting it will be a pandemic isn’t really being alarmist.  I think we all agree it’s fairly widespread. What we don’t all agree on is whether it’s worth making ourselves ill with stress. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


That's not the point, what I'm saying was the alarmism before over H1N1 ect was completely justified because it could have ended up being devastating. Again the low risk, high impact scenario. Our biggest risk at the moment is not alarmism, its complacency. And no obviously stress isn't helpful, but taking rational precautions is.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
21 February 2020 00:49:32


 


As it stands now, in terms of hospitalisation and deaths seasonal flu is a significantly greater threat than Covid-19 outside China.  Of course that may change but I’d rather you dealt with the current reality rather than focussing on dire predictions.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Because there is no obvious epidemic yet outside China. But if/when it happens and I'd argue that if is now becoming more likely than when there is no reason to believe it won't be every bit as bad as it was in China.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
21 February 2020 01:44:05

Canadian case originating in Iran.


Iran really does seem to have lost control of the situation. We should shut down all travel from Iran immediately.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 06:32:44


 


Because there is no obvious epidemic yet outside China. But if/when it happens and I'd argue that if is now becoming more likely than when there is no reason to believe it won't be every bit as bad as it was in China.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You should at the very least stop just treating China as homogeneous when it’s been clear for weeks that there’s a huge difference between Hubei province and the rest of China.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 06:33:56


 Deleted


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 07:07:12

 


That's not the point, what I'm saying was the alarmism before over H1N1 ect was completely justified because it could have ended up being devastating. Again the low risk, high impact scenario. Our biggest risk at the moment is not alarmism, its complacency. And no obviously stress isn't helpful, but taking rational precautions is


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


As a philosophical point, can alarmism be justified unless there are actually dire results from an incident? You do seem to have crossed the line from reasonable wariness (and thus sensible countermeasures) into wild panic (and thus ineffectual random stabs in the dark).

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ulric
21 February 2020 07:43:01

A very dark and alarming article.


Violent protests surround quarantine arrangements in Ukraine.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/coronavirus-ukraine-china


 

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 08:04:56


A very dark and alarming article.


Violent protests surround quarantine arrangements in Ukraine.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/coronavirus-ukraine-china


 


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


This is covered quite widely.


In that piece are words that are pertinent to some of the antics in her:


”Disinformation surrounding the coronavirus has spread online globally and caused panic in other countries ever since the outbreak started in Wuhan, China, in December.”



I don’t suppose for a moment that these people think through the consequences of their misguided comments and wild speculation.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 08:09:02


As I see it, I'm all for alarmism if it makes people stop and think about their hygiene standards and how they interact with others.

From what I've seen so far, people can't be that alarmed as I've seen people hacking their guts up without covering their mouths and people spitting on the street. Every time I see things like this, I can't help thinking we're screwed if something really nasty does come our way.


I genuinely believe with some people there is a case of 'well I've got it, you can have it too'.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

I wouldn’t call that alarmism.  I’d say it’s awareness and I couldn’t agree more about hygiene.  Some people generally don’t take what I accept as common sense measures to protect against infection, such as hand washing after using the loo or before eating.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 08:12:46


 


This is covered quite widely.


In that piece are words that are pertinent to some of the antics in her:


”Disinformation surrounding the coronavirus has spread online globally and caused panic in other countries ever since the outbreak started in Wuhan, China, in December.”



I don’t suppose for a moment that these people think through the consequences of their misguided comments and wild speculation.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As I said earlier, the fake news is more virulent than the virus itself and the consequences of panic more dangerous. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 08:20:42


Canadian case originating in Iran.


Iran really does seem to have lost control of the situation. We should shut down all travel from Iran immediately.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

You keep calling for borders and travel to be shut down and you’ve personally stopped all social interaction, yet you say precautions should be rational.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ulric
21 February 2020 08:22:43


I don’t suppose for a moment that these people think through the consequences of their misguided comments and wild speculation.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


That is one aspect which I suspect has been thought through very carefully by someone. I'm judging by the levels of unrestrained froot-loopery on Twitter.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 08:24:13

Over 200 cases in South Korea now a 100 new ones today alone. Many connected to a Church. Also major outbreaks in 3 Chinese prisons reported today, very difficult to stop it spreading once in a prison I imagine. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 08:40:57


A very dark and alarming article.


Violent protests surround quarantine arrangements in Ukraine.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/coronavirus-ukraine-china


 


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


 


Beeb have an article now. Indeed a very apocalypsic scene. 


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51581805


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 08:42:31


A very dark and alarming article.


Violent protests surround quarantine arrangements in Ukraine.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/coronavirus-ukraine-china


 

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Little wonder so many people suffer with mental health issues these days!!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
21 February 2020 08:44:50


Canadian case originating in Iran.


Iran really does seem to have lost control of the situation. We should shut down all travel from Iran immediately.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Iran has 5 cases? Where’s your source for stating that they have lost control ?I would be more inclined to put travel restrictions on South Korea than Iran at the moment. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Heavy Weather 2013
21 February 2020 08:55:05

So it looks like S Korea is now going the same way as China. Cases are rising rapidly.


International flights and travel from S Korea need to be grounded immediately.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
speckledjim
21 February 2020 09:04:54


So it looks like S Korea is now going the same way as China. Cases are rising rapidly.


International flights and travel from S Korea need to be grounded immediately.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


All that is required at worst is similar controls to what we have in place with China. They have clearly worked 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
21 February 2020 09:26:53


So it looks like S Korea is now going the same way as China. Cases are rising rapidly.


International flights and travel from S Korea need to be grounded immediately.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Is it still safe to use my Samsung phone?


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 10:10:15


 


Iran has 5 cases? Where’s your source for stating that they have lost control ?I would be more inclined to put travel restrictions on South Korea than Iran at the moment. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


This seems to be a reasonable source:


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/iran-notes-more-covid-19-cases-2-diamond-princess-die


 


The situation in Iran is puzzling as the authorities maintain that there's not been any contact with 'foreigners'. I'm inclined to think they simply haven't managed to trace the source yet.


The South Korea outbreak still seems to be rooted in the church member and subsequent contacts - including a surprisingly high number of infections in the hospital where one of the patients was treated (13). Tha confirms that the virus is readily transmitted but also suggests their quarantine/safety measures are deficient at the moment.


South Korea is a well ordered country and I still think it will be contained as it has been elsewhere.


The biggest concern is if it becomes established in countries that are poor, badly run and with limited healthcare services. There's an article in the Economist about Congo, where they're still dealing with Ebola and the country is unstable and chaotic. 


 


Also more useful information here: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-ebola-and-covid-19-outbreaks


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
21 February 2020 11:31:49


 


Iran has 5 cases? Where’s your source for stating that they have lost control ?I would be more inclined to put travel restrictions on South Korea than Iran at the moment. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Iran does not have 5 cases, they have lied and covered it up. Iran likely has hundreds of cases. They have completely lost control.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
21 February 2020 11:32:49


So it looks like S Korea is now going the same way as China. Cases are rising rapidly.


International flights and travel from S Korea need to be grounded immediately.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


And Iran.


Think we can be pretty sure now there are epidemics in both countries.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
21 February 2020 11:38:01


You keep calling for borders and travel to be shut down and you’ve personally stopped all social interaction, yet you say precautions should be rational.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


We have llimted economic activity with Iran and the country has completely lost control. Shutting down the border with Iran is something we could actually do. Shutting down the border with SK is far more difficult.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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