Remove ads from site

Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 17:59:44


 


I'm off to Japan in October and that's what I plan to do.


TBH I still can't even bring myself to be even remotely worried - when it becomes a couple of orders of magnitude worse than normal flu (which kills 10,000+ a year in the UK alone, remember), then I might allow myself the odd qualm, but no more than that.


I will, however, pay attention nearer the time if the FO advise against all travel to Japan.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Well, travelling against FO advice would invalidate your insurance for a start.


If there was a full blown pandemic you'd probably find a lot of countries would refuse to take visitors anyway.


 


The only positive at the moment is that should the virus not be brought under control then the efforts to find and manufacture  vaccine will be redoubled.  


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
21 February 2020 18:00:18


 


 


Vaccine will take a year at least but any delay will help prepare. Only way to slow/stop virus is quarantining basically staying at home. Obviously that brings massive disruption if done on large scale.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Studies show that reducing your own personal transmissibility is one of the most effective ways to slow down the virus. We know that it's difficult to catch the virus if you are not in close contact or in a confined close space with someone who has symptons (yes asymotomatics can transfer but it's probably more difficult).


I've easily reduced the number of casual contacts I've had by an order of magnitude with minimal disruption in my own life and I've been easily able to sustain it for about a month now.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
21 February 2020 18:09:42

One worrying development is that some people are testing positive after recovery. So people are potentially infectous after recovery too although I would have thought it would require very close contact if it's possible at all.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 18:31:15

The WHO daily conference is worth watching unless you believe in conspiracy theories or would sooner trust TWO's self styled experts. 


https://www.pscp.tv/w/1rmxPAjwLAgKN


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Essan
21 February 2020 18:45:40


I've easily reduced the number of casual contacts I've had by an order of magnitude with minimal disruption in my own life and I've been easily able to sustain it for about a month now.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Why are you so certain you have Covid-19?  

My day to day routine doesn't involve we coming into close contact with anyone in a confined space so even if an epidemic broke out in this country I will be fine    

Although I have had this nagging cough for a couple of weeks now, ever since this Chinese guy was in my shop, in fact 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Maunder Minimum
21 February 2020 18:46:32


Not all of the Italian cases are in Milan. Two are in venice.


I am relatively optimistic Italy will contain this though, they do seem to be on top of tracking down every contact.


I have no confidence in Iran though.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


On which topic:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern at the number of coronavirus cases with no clear link to China or other confirmed cases.


Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus's comments follow Iran's announcement of two more deaths, bringing the total there to four.


The window of opportunity to contain the virus was "narrowing", he said.


Iranian health officials said the virus may already be in "all Iran's cities"."



  • the trouble is that Iran has a dictatorship, but not an all powerful and efficient one like China. Iran also is a poor country with inadequate healthcare systems outside of the capital.


It is going to be certain that there are cases in Pakistan next door as well, but their chaos is Iran's times two.


New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 18:50:50



Does it not seem like pure luck that your cruise ship wasn't affected like the other one?
What would you be thinking if you had been stuck on it for 2 or 3 weeks wondering if you were already infected.


Originally Posted by: four 

No, it doesn’t seem like luck and I’d never thought of it that way but we heard very little about this virus until we got home.  I take things as they come, although I can imagine being stuck for 2or 3 weeks wouldn’t be nice.  I live life to the full and take risks every day, so I’m not going to stop doing the things I enjoy.  


I still can’t be sure that I haven’t been infected, or that I won’t get infected at work or when I’m shopping. If it happens, so be it. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 18:59:13


 


On which topic:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern at the number of coronavirus cases with no clear link to China or other confirmed cases.


Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus's comments follow Iran's announcement of two more deaths, bringing the total there to four.


The window of opportunity to contain the virus was "narrowing", he said.


Iranian health officials said the virus may already be in "all Iran's cities"."



  • the trouble is that Iran has a dictatorship, but not an all powerful and efficient one like China. Iran also is a poor country with inadequate healthcare systems outside of the capital.


It is going to be certain that there are cases in Pakistan next door as well, but their chaos is Iran's times two.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Not only that - and 'times two' is an understatement - but you have the Taliban's attitude from the dark ages as well.  It's next to impossible to provide healthcare in the remoter parts.


Iran is a bit of a mystery, isn't it.  Someone or something must have brought it into the country but who/what/how/when are all unknowns.


By far the greatest risk lies in Africa and particularly sub-Saharan Africa.  I referenced the WHO concerns about Congo earlier.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
21 February 2020 19:02:57


No, it doesn’t seem like luck and I’d never thought of it that way but we heard very little about this virus until we got home.  I take things as they come, although I can imagine being stuck for 2or 3 weeks wouldn’t be nice.  I live life to the full and take risks every day, so I’m not going to stop doing the things I enjoy.  


I still can’t be sure that I haven’t been infected, or that I won’t get infected at work or when I’m shopping. If it happens, so be it. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


You’re right - this is all about quantifying risk. Human nature suggests we aren’t very good at it. 


Yes you could go to Thailand and be infected or quarantined by Covid 19. But I’d suggest you’d be more likely to die in a road traffic accident over there.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 19:21:43
Rather long but this will prove strikingly accurate.


Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 19:24:42

19 more US cases all  but one former passengers on the cruise ship. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 19:41:44

Just had an em from an Italian relative saying a curfew has been declared in Codogno and the army have been ordered to shoot on sight. It's all been hushed up at the moment.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
21 February 2020 20:13:06


Just had an em from an Italian relative saying a curfew has been declared in Codogno and the army have been ordered to shoot on sight. It's all been hushed up at the moment.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Presumably you are exagerrating. Serious measures are being implemented however:


https://www.leaderlive.co.uk/news/national/18253535.italy-sees-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-emerging-cluster/


 


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 20:36:14


 


Presumably you are exagerrating. Serious measures are being implemented however:


https://www.leaderlive.co.uk/news/national/18253535.italy-sees-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-emerging-cluster/


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 Yes of course I was posting complete horsesh1t to see if I could make a stand out post in a thread where the competition is very strong. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
21 February 2020 20:38:55


 


I had a colleague at BZW decades ago who had looked into cryogenics and apparently signed up to a US company who had offered to freeze him. Very bright Oxford educated chap but a tad potty I thought.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Good idea, but Id like to be blasted into space and found by aliens centuries in the future


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
21 February 2020 20:41:22


 


 


I've easily reduced the number of casual contacts I've had by an order of magnitude with minimal disruption in my own life and I've been easily able to sustain it for about a month now.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You have friends?


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 20:47:15


 


 Yes of course I was posting complete horsesh1t to see if I could make a stand out post in a thread where the competition is very strong. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

   But you’ve no chance!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
CreweCold
21 February 2020 20:47:59
Quick question if I may...

Why does Q get rounded on so much in here, it's verging on bullying in my honest opinion. He has a different outlook on life than you guys and you ridicule him for it.

Shameful.

Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 20:51:35


 


 Yes of course I was posting complete horsesh1t to see if I could make a stand out post in a thread where the competition is very strong. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I genuinely can't see any "horsesh1t" posts today. We've taken a big step towards a pandemic today not sure how you and some others can't see that.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 20:56:08


 


 


I genuinely can't see any "horsesh1t" posts today. We've taken a big step towards a pandemic today not sure how you and some others can't see that.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I'm not sure what point you are making. I can't recall either saying 1) the virus isn't serious 2) a pandemic will not happen.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
21 February 2020 20:56:31


 


 


I genuinely can't see any "horsesh1t" posts today. We've taken a big step towards a pandemic today not sure how you and some others can't see that.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The genie does finally seem to be out of the bottle. Some countries have no chance of dealing with it and then it can only spread. Singapore appears to have been successful, but how many countries have the organisational skills, wealth and control to do what they did? Also, Singapore is geographically small - we can see what happens when clusters appear in much larger countries. Today is probably the watershed for this particular contagion.


New world order coming.
CreweCold
21 February 2020 20:57:08


 


 


I genuinely can't see any "horsesh1t" posts today. We've taken a big step towards a pandemic today not sure how you and some others can't see that.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Don't worry, I suspect we'd see a change in attitude if someone's son, daughter, mother, father or grandparent is killed by the disease. Only when it affects their little circle do a lot of people sit up and take note.


The human brain is hard wired not to think about death, so I guess it's not surprising some people bury their heads when situations like this likely pandemic unfold.


I'll use an example. If the death rate is 1% as widely touted, you could expect circa 400,000 people to die if 2/3 of the UK is infected with this virus. Naturally the brain thinks 'oh it's only 400,000, what are the odds I'll fall into that figure'. Yet if the National Lottery were making 400,000 millionaires you'd fancy your chances.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
bowser
21 February 2020 21:00:52


 


On which topic:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091


The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern at the number of coronavirus cases with no clear link to China or other confirmed cases.


Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus's comments follow Iran's announcement of two more deaths, bringing the total there to four.


The window of opportunity to contain the virus was "narrowing", he said.


Iranian health officials said the virus may already be in "all Iran's cities"."



  • the trouble is that Iran has a dictatorship, but not an all powerful and efficient one like China. Iran also is a poor country with inadequate healthcare systems outside of the capital.


It is going to be certain that there are cases in Pakistan next door as well, but their chaos is Iran's times two.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


what was it they were saying about travel to China only a few weeks ago?

Northern Sky
21 February 2020 21:01:15


 


You have friends?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


He's got a partner Beast. I think you said you'd not had sex for 20 years, which would explain a lot 


Mind you could reduce the chances of coronavirus 

Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 21:02:40


 


I'm not sure what point you are making. I can't recall either saying 1) the virus isn't serious 2) a pandemic will not happen.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


So who is posting the horsesh1t posts then? Look none of us know how this will play out but an extraordinary event is starting to unfold in front of our eyes. Fascinating and disturbing in equal measure. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Remove ads from site

Ads