theweatheroutlook

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AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
20 February 2020 09:21:37

Yet another squall line forecasted for tomorrow.

Shall we remember this winter for squalls and no snow?

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes, I think I've seen more squall lines on the rainfall radar in the last few weeks than I have in the previous few years. On the MetO website video forecast the presenter mentioned that the active cold front crossing the country today would be a notable feature as it came over the SE, so I'm going to make sure that I'm indoors for that one.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Brian Gaze
20 February 2020 09:59:17


 


Yes, I think I've seen more squall lines on the rainfall radar in the last few weeks than I have in the previous few years. 


Originally Posted by: AJ* 


That's correct I think. Site traffic this Feb is about 50% up on last Feb. December was up on the previous year too but despite decent site optimisation January was actually down a tad which indicates what an utter bore-fest it was.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
20 February 2020 10:33:08
Surprised there is no warning for the SE today given the potential timing of the squall combined with rush hour.
idj20
20 February 2020 11:26:53

What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
tallyho_83
20 February 2020 12:21:06


 


Re the Indian Ocean SSTs, I seem to recall that not long before Christmas, one member commented in this thread about this and how it could have been having an effect on the weather patterns across Europe during this winter.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Yes could be a driving factor - SST's over past year or so in Indian Ocean have been exceptionally warm some 2-3c above average hence why there was such hot dry weather in SE Australia and hence the wildfires and this has occurred for several summers now (our winters!) which have coincided with very mild winters here.


Maybe we need to start looking at the SST's in the Indian Ocean in more detail (to determine our weather!) instead of just the pacific ENSO region and/or N, Atlantic!?  

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
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Tim A
20 February 2020 12:43:44


What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


At least there are some PM scraps to feed off in the north.  Hope I can get out to the hills on a well timed day and experience some significant snowfall.


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
idj20
20 February 2020 12:49:11


 


At least there are some PM scraps to feed off in the north.  Hope I can get out to the hills on a well timed day and experience some significant snowfall.


 


Originally Posted by: Tim A 



While for my neck of the woods it'll just be yet more of the same; drizzle blowing in strong south west winds thus resulting in a completely snow-free meteorological Winter.  Although it is coming up to this time of the year where I'm starting to properly feel the warmth of the sun's rays - at least whenever that does last for long enough.

Folkestone Harbour. 
picturesareme
20 February 2020 13:11:43


What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


We were (as in nationwide) overdue a proper wet winter. 


Flooding is actually a good thing in the long run for the landscape as it helps disperse nutrients, which in turn keeps the soil's healthy. Healthy soil's mean good crops.


THE problem though is that we insist on building properties on flood planes, and removing natural flood barriers such as forest & scrub land, whilst also altering natural waterways. Even the increased use of tarmac and concrete on landscapes increases the risk of flooding as they prevent the ground from absorbing rainfall.

Rob K
20 February 2020 13:15:53


 


 


Yes could be a driving factor - SST's over past year or so in Indian Ocean have been exceptionally warm some 2-3c above average hence why there was such hot dry weather in SE Australia and hence the wildfires and this has occurred for several summers now (our winters!) which have coincided with very mild winters here.


Maybe we need to start looking at the SST's in the Indian Ocean in more detail (to determine our weather!) instead of just the pacific ENSO region and/or N, Atlantic!?  


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I thought the circulations in the northern and southern hemispheres were essentially separate? What 's the mechanism for Indian Ocean SSTs affecting our weather?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Surrey John
20 February 2020 13:56:57

Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png


and a close up


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=1&time=153&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3


 


Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,


looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me


 

Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Gooner
20 February 2020 14:03:11


Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png


 


Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,


looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


Opportunities for snow around the UK I think , much can change but looking chilly 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
20 February 2020 15:53:37

Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.


I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Chichesterweatherfan2
20 February 2020 17:01:12


Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.


I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


not sure about that Gusty... the odd flake in between the drizzle is what makes Winters so special down here in the South

Ally Pally Snowman
20 February 2020 17:12:54


 


Opportunities for snow around the UK I think , much can change but looking chilly 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Hugely underwhelming for most though. I'd rather have some Spring warmth now tbh.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
20 February 2020 17:24:30


 


 


Hugely underwhelming for most though. I'd rather have some Spring warmth now tbh.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Ditto. The daffs and crocuses are out, the magnolias are budding snd various other trees are already blossoming. No cold weather please.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
David M Porter
20 February 2020 18:36:44


Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png


and a close up


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=1&time=153&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3


 


Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,


looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


It would be sod's law if there was a cold spell of any kind now after such a mild winter, but I've seen this happen before. The winters of 1988/89 and 1997/98, to give you two examples were both notably mild with a real lack of anything wintry throughout, but both had late cold spells in my part of the world.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Heavy Weather 2013
20 February 2020 19:14:57


Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.


I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
20 February 2020 19:32:51


 


It would be sod's law if there was a cold spell of any kind now after such a mild winter, but I've seen this happen before. The winters of 1988/89 and 1997/98, to give you two examples were both notably mild with a real lack of anything wintry throughout, but both had late cold spells in my part of the world.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Dingle Rob
20 February 2020 19:36:07


I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Why? 

Heavy Weather 2013
20 February 2020 19:37:29


I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Why?

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Whether Idle
20 February 2020 19:48:12


 


Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The weather will simply do as it pleases, regardless of any human wants or needs. FWIW Ive been in autumn mode since late September, and that has served me well.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Foghorn
20 February 2020 20:45:23
I'll take anything that doesn't involve wind after 11 weeks of constant topography enhanced westerlies - still not much hope in the models mind.
Matty H
20 February 2020 21:09:19


I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Why?

Yate, Nr Bristol
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David M Porter
20 February 2020 22:14:34


I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Is this another one of your hunches Kieren, or have you seen any model output anywhere that is clearly pointing towards this on a consistent basis?


Speaking for myself, quite frankly I am now past caring as to whether it gets colder or it stays mostly mild, just as long as we get some friggin' dry weather sometime soon! Sick of all this rain and damp, absolutely sick of it and I'd be amazed if I am alone in this respect.


BTW, apologies for sounding like a certain poster from a city in NE Scotland above!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
20 February 2020 22:20:06


 


Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I'll second that!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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