Onwards...

Most of us will be dead before this thread ends.

I saw an alarming graph earlier today which shows the number of daily infections (inc outside China) beginning to fall. Not sure if it is fake news. 

Official figures suggest that, nearly 3 months after the first known cases, 0.0056% of the Chinese population have now got, or had, Covid-19.   

0.0002% of the Chinese population have died from it.

Yeah, I wonder if people ever stop to think about these numbers. As I said yesterday to Q, even if you are in Italy right now, the chance you'll get it is tiny and the chance you'd die is next to zero.

As I've said, these numbers might be useful to look at if they were time independent or even linear in time. But they arn't. While something like drowning or getting struck by lightning, or even dying of heart disease might be examples where these kind of statistics are useful (as they are all weakly dependent in time) something like a virus which is strongly dependent in time and transcends orders of magnitude within a few weeks is not.

An example that many people in here are more familiar with.

Is it appropiate to say because the global temperature is only a degree or so higher than pre industrial levels that Global warming is nothing to worry about? After all 1 degree is barely even noticable!

Because this would be a far more valid statement as temperature isn't exponential growth, it's probably only geometric growth.

These numbers are useful to know and regularly remember regardless of their time dependency. They show that there is no need to panic or even worry too much about this. Most governments are taking this seriously and I have little doubt that most people in infected areas also take it seriously and adapt their lifestyles. Obsessing about it for more than a month now and worrying too much about it with no real basis for it is  unhealthy and can be counterproductive.

1875 xioni: 'Grey squirrels are harmless to the native population, after all 99.9999% of all british squirrels are red!'

2020: research is ongoing for a vaccine to cure human stupidity.

I've always stressed that panic/worry/alarm is counter productive and I am not encouraging that. I'm encouraging people take this seriously and avoid complacency. Rational preparation be it physical or psychological will prevent dangerous short term panic if the time comes.

And yes most governments are taking it seriously, but it only takes one screw up. Iran is the screw up.

Although I'd add the US does not seem to be taking this as seriously as I would like.
Trump has already made several screw ups.

53 cases, most of which are from the cruise ship would suggest that their actions have been appropriate and they have  have had a negligible effect on their economy. 

There are essentially 6 likely regions of sustained local transmission (there may be more, but these are the ones we can be sure of).

China

Japan

South Korea

North Korea

Iran + Middle east

Italy

In order to prevent a pandemic all of these must be contained in addition to any additional regional epicentre that likely developes. I think the chance of this happening is low.

China: Probably will be contained after extreme totalitarian measures. Will probably take another month to finally clear it out.

Japan: Exponential phase arguably not reached yet, but could very quickly happen. I'm less confident about this than China.

South Korea: Second biggest outbreak outside of China but meticulously handeled. Some hope it may be controlled

North Korea: Disaster, but isolated. Will eventually burn out.

Iran and Middle East: Virtually no prospect of control. Will likely be as bad as China within a month.

Italy: Sustained and worryingly large outbreak but controls in place. Should hopefully see some reduction in the Lombardo province soon. If not it's more concerning.

They were flown back commercially.

This is not taking it seriously.

If it takes off in the US we won't be able to keep a lid on it.

Probably best to only book 5 star luxury hotels if going on holiday just in case you get involved in a lockdown.

Should add that Singapore arguably was also on that list (although not clear if it actually had sustained local transmission) but it has managed to completely control it which of course is excellent news.

I do that as standard.

Japan have it under control. Iran is a mess but it will be contained within that country now that they have it. It’s a pariah state with few friends....

Judging from the Diamond Princess, the caviar and champagne is swiftly replaced with porridge and stew, once the occupants are no longer paying guests, but are in quarantine.

Just so that Brian is ready for the collapse in standards should the Park Hyatt Milan be locked down whilst he is there.

P.S. the situation does appear on the surface to be moderating today, but we don't really have a clue what is taking place inside Iran.

9 more cases in Bahrain 17 in total all connected to Iran.

Switzerland confirms first case.

Spain now reporting its first case on the Spanish Mainland