There are essentially 6 likely regions of sustained local transmission (there may be more, but these are the ones we can be sure of).
China
Japan
South Korea
North Korea
Iran + Middle east
Italy
In order to prevent a pandemic all of these must be contained in addition to any additional regional epicentre that likely developes. I think the chance of this happening is low.
China: Probably will be contained after extreme totalitarian measures. Will probably take another month to finally clear it out.
Japan: Exponential phase arguably not reached yet, but could very quickly happen. I'm less confident about this than China.
South Korea: Second biggest outbreak outside of China but meticulously handeled. Some hope it may be controlled
North Korea: Disaster, but isolated. Will eventually burn out.
Iran and Middle East: Virtually no prospect of control. Will likely be as bad as China within a month.
Italy: Sustained and worryingly large outbreak but controls in place. Should hopefully see some reduction in the Lombardo province soon. If not it's more concerning.
Originally Posted by: Quantum