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Nick Gilly
26 February 2020 16:19:19
Storm Ellen here we come?
briggsy6
26 February 2020 17:38:01

Well according to my Collins Weather Guide, March is typically the driest month of the year (for London area anyway) so there is some hope for a welcome change as we usher in the new month. (Though strangely I always think of March as quite a stormy month for some reason).


Location: Uxbridge
idj20
26 February 2020 19:32:27


Saturday continues to look potentially nasty as a powerful system rattles through.


Gusts 80 mph over the SW as it smashes in.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Something the ICON model picked up on 2 days ago and have been keeping an eye on since.

Seems it is being largely overlooked in favour of the upcoming slushfesh. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
26 February 2020 23:08:25




Something the ICON model picked up on 2 days ago and have been keeping an eye on since.

Seems it is being largely overlooked in favour of the upcoming slushfesh. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Not being overlooked here in S Hampshire weather HQ Ian. Sat pm still looking nasty with a wide swathe of 70mph gusts.


 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
BJBlake
27 February 2020 00:33:42

I am actually looking forward to a slush fest - just to prove it was winter, then after another bout of wind, less welcome than if it came from the backside or mouth of our politicians, we might just see a Cool or balmy Spring, brimstone butterflies, bluebells, and banks of primroses, amid that bright green you only get from new spring grass...ah, it cannot come soon enough!!!


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2020 06:57:28

Jet stream strong to S of UK Sun 1st - Tue 3rd and resuming Mon 9th - Tue 10th but N of the UK; weaker in between and after with looping and splitting.


GFS shows Atlantic stuff, often cold NW at first with notably deep LP Sun 1st 960 mb Scottish borders; then easing up gradually with more W/SW influence and Influence of HP from the S increasing to 1025mb covering the country on Tue 11th. That moves slowly off to W Europe and unlike yesterday, not a N-S ridge but 'flattened' with Wly or SWly winds continuing across Shetland and further north.


ECM generally agrees but makes more of small secondary lows moving up the Channel Thu 5th - Sat 7th


GEFS  shows mild and wet peak 29th then cool and wet to 10th Mar after which milder and drier; more variability between run than in yesterday's charts. Rain most persistent in S & W.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
27 February 2020 10:15:43

06z run - this little LP feature could be of interest on it's northern edge with uppers at or just below -5c @ 850hpa: - if this comes about, could be a snow event for the south or south west!?


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


johncs2016
27 February 2020 10:38:04


Jet stream strong to S of UK Sun 1st - Tue 3rd and resuming Mon 9th - Tue 10th but N of the UK; weaker in between and after with looping and splitting.


GFS shows Atlantic stuff, often cold NW at first with notably deep LP Sun 1st 960 mb Scottish borders; then easing up gradually with more W/SW influence and Influence of HP from the S increasing to 1025mb covering the country on Tue 11th. That moves slowly off to W Europe and unlike yesterday, not a N-S ridge but 'flattened' with Wly or SWly winds continuing across Shetland and further north.


ECM generally agrees but makes more of small secondary lows moving up the Channel Thu 5th - Sat 7th


GEFS  shows mild and wet peak 29th then cool and wet to 10th Mar after which milder and drier; more variability between run than in yesterday's charts. Rain most persistent in S & W.


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Any centre of low pressure which crosses the Scottish Borders with a central pressure of around 960 mb would give us our lowest air pressure of this winter at Edinburgh Gogarbank since we aren't all that far to the north of that area here in Edinburgh.


That would then make it even more remarkable if that particular system doesn't end up being officially named as Storm Ellen by the official agents who are involved in that naming process especially as it is still looking as though parts of the Irish Republic could be hit by winds from that, which would have led me to believe that Met Eireann would be likely to officially name that system or at the very least, be involved in doing so.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
nsrobins
27 February 2020 11:33:00
Why give it a name - it’s a deep area of low pressure. The whole naming thing is ridiculous enough without having a debate on whether a particular low pressure qualifies for one or not.
IMHO of course.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
marting
27 February 2020 12:59:01

Quite a few easterlies in the 06z ensembles and the average of the GEFS shows this to some degree. Will it lead to anything we will have to wait and see given the PV is looking so strong.


Martin


Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
johncs2016
27 February 2020 13:22:16

Why give it a name - it’s a deep area of low pressure. The whole naming thing is ridiculous enough without having a debate on whether a particular low pressure qualifies for one or not.
IMHO of course.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.


I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
nsrobins
27 February 2020 13:25:22


 


As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.


I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Or no names at all. It’s all a bit farcical.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Phil G
27 February 2020 13:32:26

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png


The very last frame of FI haha, but its there to discuss.
Suggestions of the huge area of low pressure to our NW to be on the move eastwards towards Northern Russia promoting a rise in pressure to our north west and introducing a northerly flow for us, with some very cold air suggested bottled up in the flow as well.
It 'll all be off the charts in a few hours though!

idj20
27 February 2020 13:32:49


 


As it turns out, that system has just now been officially named but as Storm Jorge, rather than as Storm Ellen. The reason why that is because the Spaniards have beat us all to it this time and become the very ones who have named that storm themselves under their own naming system which they share with other countries such as neighjbouring Portugal but which is separate from own British/Irish/Dutch system which would have named it as Storm Ellen.


I'm sure that this system is bound to have impacts over in Spain which has led to that decision but to me, this is yet another example of why we should have a single European naming system for these storms rather than the sort of fragmented system which is currently in place for that.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Cue the "Brexit"-style squabble on which country could provide the list of names. Perhaps each country can have a turn every year starting with the UK next year, then Spain the year after, etc. Imagine us trying to pronounce Germany's turn (even though they've been naming storms for decades). 

Back to the here and now, The latest batch of outputs seem to show that weekend low (Jorge) taking more of a NE-ward track and passing through Scotland rather than slicing eastwards over the middle part of the UK. In turn, that would take the strongest westerly windfield away from Southern England.

Hope it carries on trending that way. 

Next week still looks generally changeable but not as markedly so with that glimmer of hope still there in the horizon. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
johncs2016
27 February 2020 14:18:09




Cue the "Brexit"-style squabble on which country could provide the list of names. Perhaps each country can have a turn every year starting with the UK next year, then Spain the year after, etc. Imagine us trying to pronounce Germany's turn (even though they've been naming storms for decades). 

Back to the here and now, The latest batch of outputs seem to show that weekend low (Jorge) taking more of a NE-ward track and passing through Scotland rather than slicing eastwards over the middle part of the UK. In turn, that would take the strongest westerly windfield away from Southern England.

Hope it carries on trending that way. 

Next week still looks generally changeable but not as markedly so with that glimmer of hope still there in the horizon. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I'm not advocating in any way that Britain should somehow rejoin the EU. However, I do think that we should at least be able to co-operate with our former EU partners in terms of being able to run a common European system for naming this storms, along with other European countries which are not necessarily part of the EU.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Saint Snow
27 February 2020 14:31:42

Imagine us trying to pronounce Germany's turn


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Imagine 'us' trying to pronounce any foreign name?


Would 'we' just mispronounce it in an Anglicised way, but speak louder?


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2020 17:40:24

 


Or no names at all. It’s all a bit farcical.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Or go capitalist - Wiki says you can sponsor a storm and get naming rights in Germay


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm#Germany


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
JACKO4EVER
27 February 2020 17:54:36


 


Or go capitalist - Wiki says you can sponsor a storm and get naming rights in Germay


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm#Germany


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Im all in- I’m naming my first one Storm Trump- blows hot and cold, full of wind and as miserable as a wet weekend. 

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2020 19:16:56


 


 


Imagine 'us' trying to pronounce any foreign name?


Would 'we' just mispronounce it in an Anglicised way, but speak louder?


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It's amusing today listening to some of the media presenter's attempts at the vocalisation of "Jorge".


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
llamedos
27 February 2020 19:23:24

As mundane as it may be........on topic please 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
SJV
27 February 2020 19:24:06


 


Im all in- I’m naming my first one Storm Trump- blows hot and cold, full of wind and as miserable as a wet weekend. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


and has a distinct orange hue to the sky as well.


 


edit: sorry John 

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
27 February 2020 22:35:04

GFS 12Z shows a now rare chart phenomenon, even for deep FI...



...not a doubt it'll be gone when the 18Z finishes rolling out.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
BJBlake
28 February 2020 00:15:50
Tonight's GFS sees the winter long procession of 2013 type Atlantic necklace of depressions and storms, Spamish or otherwise, come to an end by the 9th of March,
As March turns from its entrance as cool bear into roasting lamb - as winter bypasses spring and we turn on the sun lamp....universally welcome - considering the spreading contagion and having suffered this wet blight of a winter for too long...I'd say hi to any high right now, even a Bartlett.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
David M Porter
28 February 2020 00:37:39

Encouraging to see GFS continuing with the theme of HP taking over in FI. We just need that theme to be maintained as the time period in question gets nearer.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2020 07:40:51

The Atlantic phase seems to be blowing itself out according to GFS after a deep LP off Scotland on Sun 1st/Mon 2nd (i.e. storm Jorge continuing) and a shallow LP in the Channel Thu 5th. HP then develops from the S, moving northwards, to be strongest over Scotland on Mon 9th at 1035mb. Thereafter to Sun 15th HP hangs around but shows the somewhat unusual feature of being split into two main centres, one on each side of the UK, as a shallow trough  from France comes and goes.


ECM sharply different from Sun 8th with deep LP over Scotland and trough to S England with strong northerlies following but a hint of the HP developing on the Atlantic at the same time.


GEFS ens much as yesterday, a spell of wet weather (esp in S & W) through to about Mon 9th with temps on the cool side, somewhat uncertainly milder and drier after that. Snow row figures in decline after week 1.


 Jetstream weaker and all over the place in week 2


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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