theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Retron
28 February 2020 14:48:23


Here are the stark options according to The Times:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/what-price-will-we-pay-to-stall-coronavirus-6x0m2jvmx


"What would be worse for society: suspending normal life as we know it for months and suffering the social and economic consequences? Or letting thousands of people — mainly elderly — die from coronavirus?


This is the blunt choice that would face Britain if a pandemic hits. It is still an if, but it is now more likely than not and the probability rises with every day that outbreaks rage out of control in Italy and Iran.


..."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The latter is clearly the logical answer. Eases the demographic timebomb, eases the pension crisis, reduces bedblocking and eases the housing crisis.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Bugglesgate
28 February 2020 14:51:18


The latter is clearly the logical answer. Eases the demographic timebomb, eases the pension crisis, reduces bedblocking and eases the housing crisis.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I hope people have the same  benevolent attitude  about you when you exceed working age and are longer  an "economically viable unit". 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Quantum
28 February 2020 14:52:18


 


The latter is clearly the logical answer. Eases the demographic timebomb, eases the pension crisis, reduces bedblocking and eases the housing crisis.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


It is not the logical answer.


Doing nothing will still mean 20% of people need ICU which will be intolerable for the NHS.


Younger people still get sick en masse which will also have a knock on economic impact. And those who are at the lowest risk, female teenagers and those in their twenties are the not that economically active anyway.


 


It's not one or the other. Delaying and flattening an epidemic will also reduce the economic impact.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Retron
28 February 2020 14:57:10


 


I hope people have the same  benevolent attitude  about you when you exceed working age and are longer  an "economically viable unit". 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


TBH, I wouldn't care less!


(I have enough to look after myself in my old age, plus a trip to Switzerland to end it if needs be!)

Leysdown, north Kent
speckledjim
28 February 2020 14:59:15


 


Quieter than usual but it looks very calm to me.


https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/duomo-milano.html


https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/milano-stazione.html


https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/lombardia/brescia/sulzano.html


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Unimaginable panic evident in those videos. I saw one woman gesticulate with her arms and you’ll never see a relaxed Italian do that.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
28 February 2020 14:59:19


The latter is clearly the logical answer. Eases the demographic timebomb, eases the pension crisis, reduces bedblocking and eases the housing crisis.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I wouldn't personally put it such cold terms, but you're right. Diseases that mainly impact (from a fatality perspective) the elderly and ill are always with us and at times reach epidemic status where the number of elderly/ill deaths spikes. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, as recently as 2013 a flu surge killed 13,000 mostly elderly/ill people.


Despite all our efforts, we are still to shackle nature completely. It will, at times, lash out.


Imposing severe restrictions & deprivations on everyone to try to head it off (no guarantee it would succeed anyway) is, to borrow from your terminology, illogical.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
28 February 2020 15:10:57


Unimaginable panic evident in those videos. I saw one woman gesticulate with her arms and you’ll never see a relaxed Italian do that.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Having spoken to Italian members of my family who live in northern Italy I can assure you they are a beacon of calm in comparison with some of the posters in this thread. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
28 February 2020 15:12:48


 


Having spoken to Italian members of my family who live in northern Italy I can assure you they are a beacon of calm in comparison with some of the posters in this thread. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


👍👍👍

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
fairweather
28 February 2020 15:22:08


 


Perhaps we could import more food from the US and less from Europe. At least we'll get their taster, tenderer and cheaper beef. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


....... and with a few other chemicals and hormones thrown in for free... 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Justin W
28 February 2020 15:23:12


 


Having spoken to Italian members of my family who live in northern Italy I can assure you they are a beacon of calm in comparison with some of the posters in this thread. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


What are you expecting to happen in the UK? 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Saint Snow
28 February 2020 15:23:37


 


....... and with a few other chemicals and hormones thrown in for free... 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


Chemicals & hormones surely can't be good for coronaviruses.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
28 February 2020 15:26:49


Although I don't expect mass fatalities in the UK and I've not turned my heating up to sauna levels, I am now starting to take precautions because I am slightly concerned by the threat of significant disruption to supply and logistical chains:



  1. I am ordering bulk deliveries of my asthma medication privately so that I have a stockpile

  2. I am reactivating my 'Operation Yellowhammer' by stocking up on non-perishable foodstuffs

  3. Once again, I am stockpiling a bit of petrol (which goes off after about six months). I still have plenty of diesel from the no deal debacle


I suspect that the worst we will see is a bit of panic buying and the associated unpleasantness in the supermarkets but one cannot complete rule out a partial breakdown in the Just In Time extravaganza.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 



  1. Once again, I am stockpiling a bit of petrol (which goes off after about six months). I still have plenty of diesel from the no deal debacle


I think your biggest threat to life might be a fire !

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Justin W
28 February 2020 15:28:56


 



  1. Once again, I am stockpiling a bit of petrol (which goes off after about six months). I still have plenty of diesel from the no deal debacle


I think your biggest threat to life might be a fire !


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


I don't anticipate any threat to life here - just nuisance and disruption. And I can always make molotov cocktails if we get into a Walking Dead-type scenario


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2020 15:30:52

No they run around screaming, setting stuff on fire - it's awful when that happens.
Spade and off with their head is better.

North York Moors weather 
Justin W
28 February 2020 15:36:15
Brian Gaze
28 February 2020 15:38:22


What are you expecting to happen in the UK? 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


My guess is there will be thousands of cases in the UK and several hundred premature deaths. It will then fade away. The available evidence from China suggests it can be controlled and may not spread as efficiently as "ordinary" flu. Complete speculation on my part and as I have said before I 'm not an expert - either self proclaimed or real.  Like you I think there will be impacts on supply chains but it is very difficult to gauge the extent of them.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bugglesgate
28 February 2020 15:40:23


Although I don't expect mass fatalities in the UK and I've not turned my heating up to sauna levels, I am now starting to take precautions because I am slightly concerned by the threat of significant disruption to supply and logistical chains:



  1. I am ordering bulk deliveries of my asthma medication privately so that I have a stockpile

  2. I am reactivating my 'Operation Yellowhammer' by stocking up on non-perishable foodstuffs

  3. Once again, I am stockpiling a bit of petrol (which goes off after about six months). I still have plenty of diesel from the no deal debacle


I suspect that the worst we will see is a bit of panic buying and the associated unpleasantness in the supermarkets but one cannot complete rule out a partial breakdown in the Just In Time extravaganza.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Unfortunately modern diesel doesn't keep for much longer than modern petrol :-


https://www.bellperformance.com/blog/bid/114020/guidelines-for-long-term-fuel-storage-of-diesel-and-storage-tanks


With respect to petrol, this is your best bet :-


https://aspenfuel.co.uk/


I have a few gallons of this put aside.  Given the price, I wouldn't want to run a car on it, but it's fine for generators and chain saws.


As an aside, our local chemist has had a run on IPA gel hand disinfectant.  I have  loads of 99% pure IPA and  Aloe Vera  is  no problem to get, so I could easily make my own if I have problems elsewhere.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
xioni2
28 February 2020 15:43:42


 Have you seen what it's like in Lombardy? Supermarkets empty, roadblock quarantines, mass panic (which you yourself seem to be the most concerned about). And that's with a few hundred cases, not several thousand which could easily happen.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I have an old Uni mate who lives in Milan with his parents in a nearby village and he is telling me that the situation there is nothing like the media are reporting. Most supermarkets are fully stocked, the quarantines are few and very specific and there is no panic, just plenty of worry.


 


 

Maunder Minimum
28 February 2020 15:47:30


 


Having spoken to Italian members of my family who live in northern Italy I can assure you they are a beacon of calm in comparison with some of the posters in this thread. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


On the other hand, it does appear to be extraordinarily easy to catch corona virus simply from visiting the region - from CNN this afternoon:


"A woman from Cannes has tested positive for the coronavirus, the first in the Côté d’Azur region in the south of France.


The 23-year-old was admitted to a special isolation unit in the hospital in Nice after being found to be carrying the Covid-19 virus on Friday following a visit to Milan in Lombardy.


The authorities are waiting for the results of tests on a second person from the area."

New world order coming.
Saint Snow
28 February 2020 15:49:44


Assessment of the risk of spread and risk of impact of Covid-19 is now “very high at global level”, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


I see the first British person has died. He was on the Diamond Princess cruise. I wonder if his family has grounds to sue?


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Justin W
28 February 2020 15:53:03


 


I have an old Uni mate who lives in Milan with his parents in a nearby village and he is telling me that the situation there is nothing like the media are reporting. Most supermarkets are fully stocked, the quarantines are few and very specific and there is no panic, just plenty of worry.


 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Contrary to the myths that arose from WWII, the Italians are generally a calm and sensible lot. They are also resilient. The English, however, are likely to become hysterical should this virus get a grip here. I expect full shelf-stripping madness by people of orange hue.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2020 15:58:38


It is not the logical answer.


Doing nothing will still mean 20% of people need ICU which will be intolerable for the NHS.


Younger people still get sick en masse which will also have a knock on economic impact. And those who are at the lowest risk, female teenagers and those in their twenties are the not that economically active anyway.


It's not one or the other. Delaying and flattening an epidemic will also reduce the economic impact.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

How did you work out that 20% would need ICU care if we do nothing?  


You can’t just dismiss teenage girls and those in their 20’s.  They may not be the most economically active, but I’m betting they’re the two most socially active groups, so closing down would hit them hard. 


I’m way past my twenties and although I’m the right side of 80, if a virus gets me, so be it.  I’d rather the younger generation not be affected economically and socially just to (maybe) save me in my dotage.  I’d rather risk the virus than dementia drag me down. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
xioni2
28 February 2020 16:04:16


I’m way past my twenties and although I’m the right side of 80


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I had you as much younger from your views and posting style, let's say you look pretty young digitally 


It's a pleasure to have you on the forum!
 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2020 16:04:40


I have an old Uni mate who lives in Milan with his parents in a nearby village and he is telling me that the situation there is nothing like the media are reporting. Most supermarkets are fully stocked, the quarantines are few and very specific and there is no panic, just plenty of worry.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I can quite believe that, given what I read on here when I returned from Singapore!  The media has a lot to answer for.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Roger Parsons
28 February 2020 16:05:30


How did you work out that 20% would need ICU care if we do nothing?  


You can’t just dismiss teenage girls and those in their 20’s.  They may not be the most economically active, but I’m betting they’re the two most socially active groups, so closing down would hit them hard. 


I’m way past my twenties and although I’m the right side of 80, if a virus gets me, so be it.  I’d rather the younger generation not be affected economically and socially just to (maybe) save me in my dotage.  I’d rather risk the virus than dementia drag me down. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Me too, Caz. I've had a cracking 70 years. I'd like to have a few more if possible but....


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Remove ads from site

Ads