To date, we don't have anything like the level of infection that we see with seasonal flu. And, no, I'm not guessing: a 1% mortality rate would make this 10 times worse than seasonal flu. One per cent mortality in the UK would see, potentially, hundreds of thousands of fatalities. That would overwhelm the health services.

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It would in the short term, but it would ease things in the longer term (as with regular flu, this one hits the oldest and ill hardest).

The Beeb's reporting "less than 0.5%" for the under-50s.

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The Quantum effect starting to take hold around here. Just back from the gym where it was exceptionally quiet. In fact I expect to have it all to myself next week. 

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We don't know the exact mortality rate, however even the most optimistic estimates put it an order of magnitude worse than flu.

Also you don't wait until you feel the heat of the flame before you put the fire out.

What is the reason for this complacency? Why are you so confident this is not going to turn out badly?

 

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The serious rate is potentially even more worrying than the mortality rate. This thing is very agressive towards the lungs, if there is a mass outbreak in the UK we are going to run out of beds.

 

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Delaying this thing now becomes absolutely vital.

We are prepared for isolated outbreaks. We are not prepared for an epidemic.

We must flatten the curve to reduce the burden. Reducing personal transmission becomes even more important now.

 

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It is also worth mentioning that the mortality rate on closed cases of Covid-19 is actually 8%.

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Don't bother Justin. I've tried to explain resolved CFRs on here with almost no luck!

 

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Honestly I think we need to shut the border to Iran and Italy.

There are so many cases outside of Italy now, sooner or later this is going to take root somewhere else. The EU needs to suspend shengan.

 

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Also the irritating thing is how far behind everyone is.

The chance of catching COVID from someone from China is now remote. Arguably you could even start relaxing restrictions from China. Iran and Italy are the problem areas and should be at the top of the list.

 

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It is beyond maddening that the authorities across Europe have been so unwilling and so slow to react to Italy. Italy is Europe's Iran - look at all the cases spreading out from Italy.

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And it only takes one f*ck up and then we have two Italy's.

The absolutely madeening thing is that it seems relatively easy to stop an epidemic. Since it has only taken off in a handful of countries. But once it's out of control you have to use chinese style autarchy to stop it apparantely.

We cannot let this happen in any other European country.

AND FFS CLOSE THE BORDER TO IRAN. We don't have any economic activity with them anyway.

 

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It's actually 7% and this time last week it was 9%

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We don't have a border with Iran and those that do have closed it

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You know what I mean.

Suspend all direct and traceable indirect travel.

 

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Because the predicted mortality rate for under 50s is 0.4%. Also, every single European that has died thus far has been over 80 and/or had pre existing conditions. If all this changes i.e. gets significantly worse then I will change my opinion but other than take sensible precautions (wash hands etc) I refuse to let it impact me at all. I continue to live a normal, happy life. 

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There is an unofficial one, via France (and it involves small boats and a water taxi service provided by our government).

It'll be interesting to see, once the winds die down and the boats start coming again, whether the occupants still claim to be Iranian!

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"The outbreak is "getting bigger", WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said."

No sh1t Sherlock!

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Old, sick people dying from a flu to which there's no vaccine is not in the slightest bit surprising.

The mortality rate for under 50s is pretty high compared to regular flu, but the numbers are so small at the moment that there's still a lot of refining to do.

I will also continue to lead a normal life insomuch as I can. I have a holiday booked in Japan for October, but even if it was next week I'd have no hestitation in going.

 

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I'm off to Italy in July and I certainly won't be cancelling it. 

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Since this thread is verging on the apocalyptic culinary

One of the stories of the origin of Bird's Nest Soup suggests it was invented in the mid 1750’s by a Siam (now Thailand) based Chinese man named Hao Yieng. He found that the ‘wind eating’ swifts nests were soluble in water and edible. It was obvious even then that the Chinese were as skilled at eating anything that swum, flew or walked as they are today.

Nowadays a kilogram of top quality bird's nests might be worth between $3,000 and $4,000 which is the product of about 120 nests. For example in one creative recipe, I saw that a tureen of soup for four people called "Nest of Sea Swallows with Venomous Snake and Chrysanthemum Petals with Lemon Grass Lotus Seeds in Soup" with several drops of Venom squeezed from the glands of a snake might go for $100 or more in Hong Kong and is made from six nests.

Maybe the above will be on No 10's menu on Monday?

And for a sneak preview of Britain after the virus has run its course

 https://www.amazon.co.uk/Untitled-Novel-Robert-Harris/dp/1786331373/ref=sr_1_1?hvadid=80333160877395&hvbmt=be&hvdev=c&hvqmt=e&keywords=robert+harris&qid=1582894108&s=books&sr=1-1

 

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I hope you washed your hands thoroughly...

 

Amongst all the doom and gloom in here there's one salient and critically important fact:

The number of cases of person-to-person transmission in the U.K. so far:  NIL

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We can delay no more. I agree we. We must take immediate action to close borders with Iran and Italy. This is where the cases are coming from. We must avoid becoming an Italy or Iran. We must keep the population safe.

We are now on the precipitous and need to avoid a social breakdown

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For now. With people flowing in from Iran and Italy - it is soon inevitable.

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It is not inevitable.  It is a possible outcome, along with the UK managing to contain cases as another outcome.

I fear that people are not dealing with risk assessment very well here. 

 

We went shopping this morning and I joked with my wife that perhaps we shouldn't be buying vegetables that have come from Italy.  Are you going to ban imports because they might have virus on them?  

 

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