Percentages don't crash anything, Q.

Let's say the number of cases in the UK climbs rapidly to 100,000. 

That would mean 3,600 requiring intensive care over a period of time.

There are around 1,200 hospitals in the UK, so that would mean 3 per hospital - but not simultaneously.

There are around 6,000 intensive care beds in the UK.  Of course there are others requiring intensive care but hospitals would create makeshift additional facilities if necessary; indeed, I would guarantee that this is in the contingency planning.  

Of course, I've plucked the one hundred thousand figure from the air to make a point- even with the huge problem in China the worldwide total is nowhere near 100k yet.

Conclusion:  you are once again scaremongering.

  Gandalf, you beat me to it!  

Includes China 

It literally (sic) doesn't...

It says 18% of serious and critical cases.  You are making the assumption that they all need intensive care; you have no basis for that assumption.

To use your phrase from a previous exchange a few days ago: please leave us alone.

I'm guessing Q is guessing it'd have a much, much higher percentage of infection rate than normal flu.

(FWIW, I've had normal flu exactly once in my 40-year life. I can't tell you that much about it, other than it was at Christmas the first year I worked in the school. I woke up a couple of times for a pee/drink of water on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, but the rest of the time I was asleep, or dozing, despite the aches and chills/hot spells. It really isn't a common thing to catch and I would wager even an order of magnitude higher would still mean you're unlikely to catch it.)

I've had flu three times in my 60+ year life.  None pleasant but all manageable by resting; the worst was the first because I didn't realise it was flu for the first day and went to work. BAD idea.

I too have had flu only once and that was a few years ago, over Christmas. I completely missed the festivities but recovered fully in time to return to work!    
Incidentally, I didn’t need intensive care, not even hospitalisation, in fact I didn’t even see a doctor. 

Italy 821 from 650 yesterday. That doesn't sound like a massive increase to me although I've not been following the stats on a daily basis.

Looks slightly non-linear but not exponential (yet). Assuming that's not just because of a saturation in the measuring it's good news.

Coronavirus: Quarantined inside Italy's red zone

"Apart from the initial fears, it's all very calm and quiet. There is no panic."

...

"In general, there is a sense of togetherness that I will never forget."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51651099

Whilst the situation is clearly serious it sounds nothing like what Quantum was describing. As I said the evidence I have from family members is that what he posted was inaccurate to put it mildly.

Edit: See https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1182875#post1182875 for the alternative version 

Sometimes it feels like playing King Canute, trying to push back the waves of stupidity and exaggeration. 

I've just poured all our food from Italy into the bin.  You can never be too careful....

Trump has appointed VP Pence to lead the US coronavirus response. He is a religious and anti-science guy who:

• had slashed public health funding as Governor of Indiana and then the state had one of the worst HIV outbreaks


• resisted a needle exchange programme


• cut the budget for Planned Parenthood


• prioritises abstinence and heterosexual monogamy before condom use


• he said 'smoking doesn't kill' and in 2013 slashed funding for programs designed to prevent smoking; As of 2018 Indiana had the 5th highest rate of smokers in the US

“It’s like putting an arsonist in charge of the fire department, a bank robber in charge of the US Mint.” a US professor of epidemiology said.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/27/mike-pence-coronavirus-response-experts

Sounds like he would do really well in Iranian politics.

It is pointless making comparisons with flu.

The important point about Covid-19 vs seasonal flu is that all of us have some degree of immunity to the latter even though every year it mutates slightly. That means that even in a bad year, flu infections are checked.

There is no immunity with Covid-19 because we have not been exposed to it before. It has a much higher infection potential... potentially. 

Dow slump continues one would think the next 20k stock and shares allowance would be very good value and very tempting as always hindsight is a wonderful thing

It is one I have been referencing all along - the only problem is that it uses "official" figures which we know are completely bogus for Iran and are probably inaccurate for China as well.

The only thing I would say about the Italian stats, is that the number of cases popping up in other countries originating from Italy, does suggest that there is exponential increase there, but probably untested, since asymptomatic cases are not tested, but can still spread (as we know).

Cases popping up in other countries which originated in Italy suggests that an explosion in stats from Italy is around the corner.

It's hard to see where the bottom is, but the first 'bounce' day would tempt me to long-bet on the dow/ftse.  Huge overreaction and the brave to stand to make a fair wad of cash when the bounce comes.  

Italy is 888 cases with 21 dead now. Seems to be be following  a similar rate rise to other countries specifically South Korea . France 19 cases today.

I agree and many do

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/ken-langone-says-market-panic-over-coronavirus-surpasses-reality.html

Total over reaction and I look forward to buying some v cheap stock 

I don't think that's true.  If it was there would be no need to keep tweaking the vaccine to try to anticipate which variant will be prevalent in the next 'flu season'.

My understanding is that even a slight mutation means the immune system doesn't recognise the infection.