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Roger Parsons
29 February 2020 08:19:23


Yes, that is a fascinating article. Particularly interesting how some people's immune response is what kills them.


It is clear that people with diabetes are at risk of severe symptoms and possible mortality. Given the number of obese people in Anglo-Western societies, I expect the death rate to be higher here than in China where there are far fewer people with type 2 diabetes or weight issues. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Yes that it an interesting take on it, Justin. If I may I will add a mild subjective counter argument. I am a type 2 diabetic [well controlled] and a tad overweight. A year ago I had a "double cardiac by-pass" followed by an extended period in ICU because of a lung infection. I lost 2 stone - enough to even lose tissue from my vocal chords. But I survived and am now in relatively good health. It is said that Polynesian men like their women big. Why's that? Because they might still be alive at the end of the voyage. I would fear going into Covid-19 infection underweight!


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
29 February 2020 08:20:45


 


There's quite a good piece here:


 


https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Excellent piece; some overlap with what is covered in the link I provided.


In short, it’s complicated.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Justin W
29 February 2020 08:22:14


 


Yes that it an interesting take on it, Justin. If I may I will add a mild subjective counter argument. I am a type 2 diabetic [well controlled] and a tad overweight. A year ago I had a "double cardiac by-pass" followed by an extended period in ICU because of a lung infection. I lost 2 stone - enough to even lose tissue from my vocal chords. But I survived and am now in relatively good health. It is said that Polynesian men like their women big. Why's that? Because they might still be alive at the end of the voyage. I would fear going into Covid-19 infection underweight!


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I wouldn't. Underweight people are proven to have a much lower risk of cardiovascular conditions. I'm slightly overweight having piled weight back on after nearly dying from peritonitis last year and am fasting twice a week to shed the extra pounds. The evidence is absolutely clear that if you are overweight, you are more likely to get ill.


I'm also asthmatic which puts me in the vulnerable category for Covid-19.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Roger Parsons
29 February 2020 08:25:32


I wouldn't. Underweight people are proven to have a much lower risk of cardiovascular conditions. I'm slightly overweight having piled weight back on after nearly dying from peritonitis last year and am fasting twice a week to shed the extra pounds. The evidence is absolutely clear that if you are overweight, you are more likely to get ill.


I'm also asthmatic which puts me in the vulnerable category for Covid-19.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


We shall see how we get on, Justin! "Break a leg!"

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 February 2020 08:35:31

As an antidote to panic, the BBC's medical correspondent (Fergus Walsh? I wasn't listening hard enough) has just pointed out that the 'reasonable worst case scenario' from the Govt Chief Medial Officer for swine flu, a few years back, was 65.000 deaths. in the event there were under 500.


The conclusion to draw is "No situation is ever as good or as bad as you think it is".

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
29 February 2020 09:00:16
The immune system is fascinating and on one level like every other body system it is simple yet incredibly complicated at the same time!

As for the risk with diabetes I suspect it will be more of an issue with poorly managed cases which have associated cardiovascular and for example neuropathic issues (of which there are quite a few,but not yours by the sound of things Roger).

More generally it is still too early to accurately call the infection and mortality rates. We can estimate based on the evidence, which will be what the WHO will and has to do, but the figures will be open to change at this very early stage.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
29 February 2020 09:10:22


 


 


 


It is clear that people with diabetes are at risk of severe symptoms and possible mortality. Given the number of obese people in Anglo-Western societies, I expect the death rate to be higher here than in China where there are far fewer people with type 2 diabetes or weight issues. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


And in America, you have millions without health insurance. Many will not seek treatment for fear of being charged a huge bill. Some have already been billed for tests, so they will keep quiet and spread the illness in the community,


And if the rich think "good, f@ck the poor", they can still catch it from their cleaners and office maids etc, delivery drivers, taxi drivers etc


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
speckledjim
29 February 2020 09:14:04
Number of active cases (as at 28th) has dropped again - 11th day in succession.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Bugglesgate
29 February 2020 09:18:24


 


And in America, you have millions without health insurance. Many will not seek treatment for fear of being charged a huge bill. Some have already been billed for tests, so they will keep quiet and spread the illness in the community,


And if the rich think "good, f@ck the poor", they can still catch it from their cleaners and office maids etc, delivery drivers, taxi drivers etc


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Likewise,  those over here in the "gig economy"  may not be too keen to "self isolate"   for a fortnight if they are on the breadline.  Even if they develop full blown symptoms one suspects many will just carry on  as  they will have no sick pay  from an employer.


Even people with "regular" jobs may not be  get sick pay if they stay away from work  of their own volition (as opposed to being directed to do so by their employer)


Bottom line,   I don't think the "self isolation" policy is going to work. as too many categories of people  will find it too costly.


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Roger Parsons
29 February 2020 09:25:02

The immune system is fascinating and on one level like every other body system it is simple yet incredibly complicated at the same time!

As for the risk with diabetes I suspect it will be more of an issue with poorly managed cases which have associated cardiovascular and for example neuropathic issues (of which there are quite a few,but not yours by the sound of things Roger).

More generally it is still too early to accurately call the infection and mortality rates. We can estimate based on the evidence, which will be what the WHO will and has to do, but the figures will be open to change at this very early stage.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I'm doing OK, DrM.


I suspect most folks don't get the statistics.  However - we should all know what our risk factors are in general terms and to be trying to do something about them - only many don't. A spell in a cardiac ward certainly teaches one that! It's is also a real eye opener into how excellent and how pressured the NHS is. The last thing they need is a major winter epidemic. 'Nuff said.


R.


 


 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Ulric
29 February 2020 09:45:35


And in America, you have millions without health insurance. Many will not seek treatment for fear of being charged a huge bill. Some have already been billed for tests, so they will keep quiet and spread the illness in the community,


And if the rich think "good, f@ck the poor", they can still catch it from their cleaners and office maids etc, delivery drivers, taxi drivers etc


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Interesting to compare the likely situation in the US with what may occur where there are centralised state run systems. China's response for instance, has been quite remarkable. The UK with it's NHS is somewhere between the two extremes.


Where the individual is responsible for healthcare, a question arises about what they are entitled to decide is, "in their own best interest". How many would conclude, like Spock, that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one?


Those without healthcare and gig economy workers on the breadline may be the biggest risks in this crisis.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 February 2020 09:47:15

  Some sensible posting this morning giving food for though!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
29 February 2020 10:07:06

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
29 February 2020 10:08:09

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
29 February 2020 10:10:13


 


Likewise,  those over here in the "gig economy"  may not be too keen to "self isolate"   for a fortnight if they are on the breadline.  Even if they develop full blown symptoms one suspects many will just carry on  as  they will have no sick pay  from an employer.


Even people with "regular" jobs may not be  get sick pay if they stay away from work  of their own volition (as opposed to being directed to do so by their employer)


Bottom line,   I don't think the "self isolation" policy is going to work. as too many categories of people  will find it too costly.


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Brexit loving Mr Witherspoon has said staff will not get any sick pay if they have to self isolate. Funny that, as they don't get sick pay anyway!


 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
29 February 2020 10:19:53




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I flagged that up yesterday. It was the first thing I thought when it was announced that the "emergency" Cobra would take place 3 days later.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
29 February 2020 10:28:31


 


I flagged that up yesterday. It was the first thing I thought when it was announced that the "emergency" Cobra would take place 3 days later.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I guess that's the point Boris is trying to make - it's not an emergency and there is no need to panic.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
doctormog
29 February 2020 10:30:37


 


I guess that's the point Boris is trying to make - it's not an emergency and there is no need to panic.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Exactly. That and the fact it says “look we’re doing something” where’d in reality what is being done will be/should be mostly behind the scenes. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Justin W
29 February 2020 10:30:52

Reports this morning suggest the Govt expects 70% of the U.K. population to become infected with one in 10 of the country hospitalised. That seems a lot to me but if true, I cannot see how the NHS could possibly cope. 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
speckledjim
29 February 2020 10:31:46
15 new cases in Germany today (59 active). It will be interesting to see how slick they are at managing and controlling it.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
speckledjim
29 February 2020 10:32:43


Reports this morning suggest the Govt expects 70% of the U.K. population to become infected with one in 10 of the country hospitalised. That seems a lot to me but if true, I cannot see how the NHS could possibly cope. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


 


Where's the source of that please?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
doctormog
29 February 2020 10:35:47


Reports this morning suggest the Govt expects 70% of the U.K. population to become infected with one in 10 of the country hospitalised. That seems a lot to me but if true, I cannot see how the NHS could possibly cope. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


One in ten hospitalised? I would suggest reading different reports. I wonder if over 100 million will be hospitalised in China or 30 million in the US?


I suspect if it it does become well established in the U.K. tens of thousands may be hospitalised not millions. Again that is guesswork but what your report suggests in unfounded and unrealistic scaremongering. If it’s from the government did Boris write it himself or did he recruit Derek McKay for a more detailed analysis.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Justin W
29 February 2020 10:36:21


 


 


Where's the source of that please?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Health Minister Edward Argar on the Today programme this morning. Also quoted in numerous online reports.


It seems way too high as an estimate to me. But what do I know?

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 February 2020 10:36:53


Exactly. That and the fact it says “look we’re doing something” where’d in reality what is being done will be/should be mostly behind the scenes. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

  As I said in my response to Brian’s post, I expect they’re as concerned about the results of panic, so they’d have to be seen to be doing something. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
29 February 2020 10:38:34


 


Health Minister Edward Argar on the Today programme this morning. Also quoted in numerous online reports.


It seems way too high as an estimate to me. But what do I know?


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Sounds like he's on some mind altering drugs. That would mean 980 million Chinese are going to come down with it.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip

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