Yes, GFS does look encouraging in terms of holding onto the idea of a high pressure theme in the FI range . . . but on the other hand with the latest ECM run . . . 

Yes Ian ECM 240 quite different to GFS. Be interesting who 'backs down', or if they meet in the middle.

Not sure it's a right thread, but wish to note some interesting convective clouds just off Brest Peninsula, that is in the middle of a warm sector, looking at current pressure charts.

Seems more like Summer.

Briefly - I'm pressed for time - GFS has storm Jorge this weekend and has now come in line with yesterdays' ECM in predicting another storm next weekend (Sun 8th, 960mb Shetland, cf SC's post), slack LP during the week between. Thereafter high pressure building from the south, centred to the SE at first with S-ly winds but by Mon 16th retrogressed into the Atlantic with more of a NW-ly.

ECM meanwhile has toned down the storm for the 8th but seems reluctant to develop the subsequent HP

GEFS cool to 10th, then mostly milder but with wide variations. Some rain to 10th (v. little in NE England and Scotland bar a burst around the 10th itself) but less than yesterday forecast and then drier

yes - that has seemed to be a common thread of the GFES - the warming post 10th. It seems gradually though it favours a bless settled version of this warming trend. Will it last? The hint a northerly blast, not uncommon at Easter periods historically, but this late Easter may be after the event. Having said that the 10th - 12th of April is often chill. Possibly a Buchan cold spell from vague memory...polar maritime cool, wet respite will do me...

The 12z GFS seems to be keen on high pressure moving in the second week of March, while ECM is just having f*****g none of it. A very diverging output in the 240 hr range. 

Yes a continuation of the stand-off between the big boys. Which one will blink first?

jetstream showing more of a buckled pattern than has been the case for all of Feb, but still strong around the UK for the next few days and again around Mon 16th.

GFS keeps westerlies going for this week, with a final blast on Sat 7th with tail-end northerlies, after which HP to end of run around Tue 17th centred mainly over central England at 1030mb (slight wobble around the 14th)

ECM plays down the storm on the 7th (having been the first to signal this feature, now the first to lose it) but will have nothing to do with a UK high pressure and keeps westerlies to end of run on Wed 11th

BBC hinting that the storm on the 7th will be more significant

GEFS runs agree on cool to 7th after which anything can happen, a lot of temp variability between runs and individual runs up and down. Rain petering out after 10th Mar (not much in N & E anyway).

It doesn't look as if the models have much of a handle on week 2

Regarding the medium range outputs, the two big boys seem to be heading towards a middle ground with low pressure never being too far away to the north of the UK but high pressure trying ever so hard to ridge in from the Azores thus putting us under a maritime-type south west airflow for the most part.

In other words, all very typical stuff but hopefully without the storminess and at least it'll be mild. 

Although that said, still very robust low heights over the polar region is making it difficult to break us here at the UK out of this rut.

GEFS tonight showing a strong Scandinavia high as a likely outcome out in FI with a fairly strong average.

As ever, probably gone in 12 hours

martin

We might get our third quasi snow event tonight. Considering just how relentlessly the Atlantic has dominated this winter, it hasn't been the worst ever for wintry weather by a long chalk - at least IMBY. Twice now we have had short events of snow falling and settling, not bucket loads, just a dusting, but loads more in the high Suffolk region, sadly where I Used to live. The last glancing low gave that area an inch, and fluffy proper snow.

With this persistent polar maritime spell their have been some notable wintry showery events. The GFS suggest more to come before the jet weakens and we get a long hinted pattern change.

The control shows this being more interesting - and so much bottled up cold could well spill down just as we close the door on this winter. It was about 1975 when a late March cold spell gave us 3 consecutive night time snow falls around the 25-27th of March, bright sunny days melted it swiftly, but -3 and blowing snow at night from some polar low features.
FI hints on this only so far, but probable...

The rain departs for France this week, but back for W Scotland next week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 Norwegians mountains look set for a real snow dump then, with average temps below zero (as they have been all winter, it's only the Baltic areas which have been above freezing)

GFS charts again varying day to day - currently this week has Atlantic influence with shallow but well defined LP crossing UK Wed/Thu (though BBC model has this well S in France).That HP which has been on and off the forecasts for a while now appears at the weekend (BBC has deep LP at that time) eventually presenting as a ridge to Scandi by Tue 10th but collapsing to westerlies again through to Wed 18th. The HP centre is never far from southern UK though and there are no Atlantic storms to be seen.

ECM agrees up to the weekend , but brings in a trough for Mon 9th (like the BBC) followed by a major storm just off the W coast on Wed 11th

Ens runs reflect this with good agreement on cool temps and dry to next weekend (except a pulse of rain and one mild day Thu 5th for England and Wales) after which every run tells a different story as regards temp, though all are generally dry.

Being Absent on TWO for about three months in a row.  
February goes out with a full month of North Atlantic Storms named.

And the first week of March continues changeable in all weather types.  Some more cold rainy and frosty weather is great to hope come true.

12th-14th March mild WSW winds with rain later.

Then chance of cold Northerly winds with High’s in East Central NE Europe, Low Pressure also under pressure as blocking NW Atlantic West Central Greenland High and Western N Atlantic high become locked in - Cold Northerly winds bringing low temperatures and sleet/ snow showers particularly in Ireland, N.  and NW England and Scotland etc etc.

They are models after all.  Nothing to get frustrated and upset about. Que Sera Sera.

Carry on checking the Models they could try to give us more chilly cold and wet weather.  But the concoction that is the PSW Zephyr will visit any part of Europe it wishes to.

I knew you would show up after my post.

The North Atlantic Overturning Event AMO is going to happen.

The Pressure will be pushing this in Waves of Angular Momentum Spinning Arctic Low’s Far N Pacific, to SW S Alaska and SE to E NE USA, Low’s looping up and then lodged out by MLB High blocks West N Atlantic Greenland SE Canada NE USA etc.

The North Atlantic in mid March shall see us get mild SW and west winds that turn North NW and NNE- with Greenland East Canada NE USA blocking Central and NE Europe blocking High’s.

The SE Greenland Iceland and Western Norwegian Sea could gather Cold Arctic Airmass and send it to NW and Western Europe etc etc.

The GFS, UKMO, ICON and the GFS la la yay- are quite the prowess of this possible but not yet certain but increased chance yes it could not Flip or Flop but be organised such that arctic cold shots are possible as the Azores High will by Mid March 2020 migrate NW and merge with Greenland High P area.

00z, 12z and 18z runs pointing to some mild West SW winds from 11-12th March et all, maybe 13th as well.  It is what happens as it stretches Southwards and elongates SW to NE in Eastern N Atlantic in said period.

 GFS has LP over UK this week with well defined centre late Thu and N-ly winds to follow on Fri 6th, brief HP over the weekend but toppling and allowing strong W-ly through the following week to Sun 15th. Then HP re-asserting itself, rather uncertain ridge to Scandi at first, but with 1040mb NW Scotland on Thu 19th and light E-ly for the south of UK.

ECM similar but finishes with a 975mb storm for W Scotland on Fri 13th which is much weaker on GFS.

BBC Weather downplays the LP on Thu this week but is much keener on an unsettled weekend.

GEFS temps below normal to Tue 10th, then much scatter but more runs showing brief mild spell before dropping back to colder. Not much rain, though something for the S this week, late Wed or early Thu depending on model.

Jet stream breaking up and looping around (often with the N-ly component of the loop over the UK) and still with enough organisation for a strong flow off NW Scotland briefly around Mon 9th. Ukraine enjoying temps +10C above normal http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

well it wouldn’t contain the word “snow” so I wouldn’t worry Saint 😉

ECM 12z at day 10 looks alright, but I'm hoping that high really builds in and keeps our weather quiet.




GEFS weakens the high pressure signal beyond mid-month with more scatter and precip spikes developing.

indeed Saint They are no good for me either and i live less than 1/2 mile away from Dew  Mind you as fellow Chichestrians,  Dew and I  both know that the  chances of snow in Chichester this winter with the synoptics on offer are precisely zilch!