Early gains in the Markets are already giving up.

GDAX and CAC40 are now in the red again. FTSE on its way down as well.

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Looking at the data:

Italy now looks to be in the exponential phase with a rough R0 of 1.5

BUT

South korea is not, whatever they are doing in SK is bloody effective.

 

I'd put Italy now at the #2 hot spot after Iran. China wouldn't even make my top 5 countries of concern at this point.

 

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The intention will be to slow down the spread but I would expect very few concrete measures. It will mostly be based on public information campaigns at this stage. I understand western governments have considered the option on "letting it rip" on the basis of it being less costly in terms of £$E but have rejected it because health systems would not be able to cope.  

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We need to ban all flights from Iran and Italy (including any with connections) and introduce greater screening for other countries showing sustained local transmission.

We must also be prepared to implement local quarantines and start to really ramp up border control. All non essential visits abroad should be wound down.

 

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Yesterday I think you said Italy was doing a good job of containing it. Today Italy isn't but South Korea is. You need to learn to see the bigger picture and not react in this way to every twist and turn.

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Firstly I've always praised SK since it became clear how effective they were at containing it.

Secondly those are not mutually exclusive. I do believe Italy is doing a good job of containing it, it's nowhere near as bad as Hubei in it's early stages for example. Just because the authorities are doing a good job doens't mean it was necessarily easy to prevent the exponential phase. South korea has exceeded all expectations by managing to do this.

Iran is at the other end of the spectrum. Italy gets a solid B+ from me.

 

Why is everyone trying to pick nits in everything I say? You lot all ignore anything optimistic I post to suit your narrative, and JustinW has a bigger stockpile than I do and he never gets any critism at all. Stop portraying me as a naive child who is overexaggerating. I'm not. If this becomes an epidemic in the UK then the consequeces will be potentially devastating. The NHS is incapable of coping with an epidemic on the scale of Hubei.

 

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And as I've stated before Italy is only in the exponential phase in Lombardy.

Hell, I have far more confidence in Italy keeping this in Lombardy than I do in France stopping a nationwide epidemic.

 

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Its a dilemma and there is no good outcome

China probably took the correct approach. Its now on top of it but at a heavy cost to the economy. But they started out in a much stronger position than most western countries, so will recover

We and America are dependent on debt fuelled spending to maintain economic growth. I can see why Trump looks worried

 

 

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Was thinking maybe Easter school break would be extended and maybe summer break reduced, I guess the local authorities will be given that permission depending what level of infection there are in different areas.

 

I think the sensible thing would be to concentrate more on the NHS being prepared, with extra beds, staff, resources etc and on the testing procedures.  Probably on what advice to give businesses and something thrown in for individuals too, like how to minimise spread by washing hands thoroughly. 

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I read today that China has had 80,000 cases of the virus and that infection rates are slowing. This is in a country of nearly 1.5b people so that's a miniscule percentage of the population. Why then is everybody talking about 60 -80% of the population getting the virus. Surely we would be seeing much higher numbers in China if that were the case?

This was touched on yesterday PL - some interesting points - see:

#888 Posted : 01 March 2020 15:23:09
 
Roger

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Because they have shut down whole regions for weeks. They have built 16 new hospitals.

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Because its unlikely that we would be able to take the draconian measures the Chinese have taken. There are reports today that Hubei cases have actually increased today

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The personal space zone is often overlooked often have to take one step back when chatting to someone it appears everyone seems to have a slightly different measure I see the recommendation is a metre not sure that’s a enough to be honest.

Because China took truly extrodinary means to prevent it from happening. Measures that I don't think are even possible in a country that cares about Human rights or has the inefficiences of a democracy. Very occasionaly there are benefits of being in a totalitarian dictatorship.

The bottom line is, if we were to wait as long as China waited we would have no chance of stopping a disaster from happening in the UK. Thankfully we are not doing that, but there will be a tipping point where it becomes impossible to stop said disaster. The important thing to do is limit the spread as much as possible. If the burden is delayed and spread out the consequences will be much less severe.

 

And if we don't we will suffer the same fate as Iran which I'm increasingly thinking will become a failed state.

 

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Milan must be riddled with the virus - look at the common theme in these reports from the BBC website:

"The first two cases of the coronavirus have been registered in Portugal, according to local reports.

One of the men diagnosed had recently travelled to Italy and the other man had returned from Spain.

...

Iceland has confirmed its first three cases of people infected with coronavirus.

In a statement released late on Sunday, the country's Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management said one patient was diagnosed on Friday, while the other two were confirmed over the weekend.

All three patients had recently been on holiday to northern Italy - the worst-hit country in Europe - the statement added.

Andorra also confirmed its first case - a 20-year-old man with mild symptoms who had also been to Italy.

The man recently went to Milan, the Andorran government said"

Meanwhile , the virus is cutting a swathe through the Iranian government:

"An official from the council that advises Iran's supreme leader has died of the coronavirus, Iranian state radio reports.

Mohammad Mirmohammadi was a member of the Expediency Council, the Associated Press says."

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Yes although the rest of China, the disease is almost gone.

We should take inspiration from South Korea, rather than China imo. Basically hit it hard, hit it early, and we can then avoid having to weld people into their own tower blocks if one person has a sniffle to stop it.

 

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Agreed.

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What time does PHE usually update the latest count. Usually we hear something by now. I wonder if there is anything to be read into the delay.

 

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 Think that would be a good idea Roger also extra tough guidelines for those very sick children in Picu  places like Royal Brompton and Gosh

And we'll close the M25 for hours and build 3 new tents.

If I had to grade a handful of countries on how it has handeled this:

 

South Korea: A++

Singapore: A+

Hong Kong: A

China: B+ (A+ after the first month)

Italy: B+

UK: B+

Japan: B

Germany: C

France: C-

Spain: C-

Indonesia: D

North Korea: D-

USA: D-

Iran: F

 

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Good thing this forum is closed as your assessment could affect their stock markets.

I surmise that they will be postponing until after the COBRA meeting and any government announcements related to that.

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