It's about 20x more infectious and 10x more likely to kill.

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At least 48 new cases and 2 deaths in France since last night

 

This is what makes me doubt the Chinese numbers outside of Hubei. For the Chinese to have virtually eradicated it (outside Hubei),  seems almost scientificly impossible. 

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We could all guess at various predictions based on current evidence and other pathogens but the truth is it is just guesswork given the short time scales involved so far. Throwing around percentages and numbers of cases etc. Is of limited worth and heightens anxiety with little if any benefit.

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They may simply not be testing for it beyond hospital cases. There are probably thousands more that have it but have just stayed at home until they feel better.

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ive been looking for comparisons so where is the source for that data?

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A school pupil in Devon has tested positive after returning from Italy contact-tracing has started with the school closed for a deep clean.

Coronavirus: Everything You Need to Know at 19:30 on BBC One will feature an exclusive interview from Laura Kuenssberg with Boris Johnson

 

Astounding number of people from Italy testing positive (both WRT to UK and elsewhere)

I can't believe they  have all been to the restricted area.  maybe time to   tighten the FO advice on Italy as a whole ?

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/italy

 

 

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If all the hypocritical school-kids had followed their own demands and not gone off ski-ing in Italy during the half term (on account that doing so is destroying the future their future and its not fair!!!!) then we wouldn't be in this mess!

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They'd have to be insane to know that, DEW! I'm sure you understand the point I made.

R

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I'm still amazed how little testing is going on at UK airports for arrivals from Italy most are just able to walk through freely with maybe an 'advice' leaflet

You meaning measuring their temperature or quarantining everyone that flies in from Italy until they can be tested for the virus? If it the former then it would miss a large number of (almost?) asymptomatic cases, if the latter then good luck quarantining hundreds or thousands of healthy people in case some might have the virus.

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fatality/recovered is your number...

Best thing would be for everyone to relax and back off a bit, DrM. No need for anyone to whip up a frenzy. Advice given so far is sound, given there are not a lot of options.

Roger

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The numbers don't stack up for Italy - here is the comparison with SK from this evening:

                     TOTAL NEW  DIED NEW DEATHS ACTIVE RECOVERED CRITICAL

S. Korea	4,335	+599	28	+7	4,277	30	27
Italy	2,036	+335	52	+11	1,835	149	166

We are supposed to believe that Italy with half the number of infected people has twice the death rate of SK?

Pull the other one.

Given the extraordinary numbers who visit Italy and then return infected, the general level of infection in Italy is presumably that much higher than in SK.

The UK government should have advised against all but essential travel to Italy.

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Official data in from France

61 new cases and 1 new death

Total to 191 cases + 3 deaths

More than 50% of positives are asymptomatic - what sort of testing could the airport effect for detection?

The death toll in Italy is skewed by the high percentage of elderly who are admitted as critical cases with hypoxemia and ARDS. From confirmation to outcome (death) is hours or a couple of days. Pressure on specialist beds will probably mean some drastic triage is taking place - the 'Three Wise Men' have an unenviable task.

1900 new cases today and 2700 recovered

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In all honesty this is probably the best way to go as in reality that's what will happen anyway as there is no vaccine/cure.The govt are NOT concerned with the virus but they are shitting themselves over the economy and nhs collapsing!!

Well having heard what I heard this morning I'm not going overboard on the prevention side of things. I'd rather get it sooner rather than later to be honest.

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There is no avoiding it altogether, but the responsible course of action is to take every measure to delay the full onset for as long as possible (spring/summer would be an easier time to deal with it) and to try to keep the flow of new cases as uniformly low as possible, to prevent the health service from being completely overwhelmed.

We are currently in the containment phase, but once home grown cases start to increase exponentially, the authorities will have to move into a mitigation phase.

 

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We are told that humans are not immune. What's the dfference between that and people who carry the virus but have no symptoms?

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I would not be surprised to see foreign travel curtailed quite soon, with restrictions on domestic travel following.

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That would be the sensible thing to do,sooner rather than later esp foreign travel.