Who is Liz Specht?

I have a bidet with has a bum gun. I hardly even use toilet paper

I hope a toilet roll shortage finally results in people washing their asses, and the proliferation of butt hoses or milk bottles in Western toilets.

— Nish Kumar (@MrNishKumar) March 7, 2020

i didn’t realise that pointing out that Europe has outsourced much the same stuff as we have was overreacting. Our supply chains are fragile because they don’t account for risk / disruption adequately. This is as true within the EU as it is outside. Other countries can mitigate risk without being part of a political union.

Perhaps it’s time to flush this subject down the sewer!  

No idea but I think she is right

Boris doesn't want to move to crowd restrictions and school closures. He wants to wait till the easter holidays but it maybe too late

China and Korea have done ok to keep a lid on things by taking harsh measures

A doubling every six days for the UK assuming 300 actual cases now

07/03/2020     300.00
13/03/2020     600.00
19/03/2020     1,200.00
25/03/2020     2,400.00
31/03/2020     4,800.00
06/04/2020     9,600.00
12/04/2020     19,200.00
18/04/2020     38,400.00
24/04/2020     76,800.00
30/04/2020     153,600.00
06/05/2020     307,200.00
12/05/2020     614,400.00
18/05/2020     1,228,800.00
24/05/2020     2,457,600.00
30/05/2020     4,915,200.00
05/06/2020     9,830,400.00
11/06/2020     19,660,800.00
17/06/2020     39,321,600.00
23/06/2020     78,643,200.00

Cases by region

• East of England | 16 (+5)


• London | 38 (+9)


• Midlands | 17 (+5)


• North East and Yorkshire | 18 (+5)


• North West | 26 (+4)


• South East | 30 (+4)


• South West | 25  (+3)

To be determined | 14 (-1)

Thankfully we arn't in the exponential phase yet.

Soft southerners. I went to Morrisons today, the shelves were full and all was calm.

At some point  well before then it will slow becuase an increasing proportion of the population will have had it and therefore be immune (if they aren't dead !)

Not a million miles    from me, but no sign of that bloody nonsense around here.  Seriously, what the hell are people  going to do with the quantities being loaded in that video.   I can only assume it's not for personal use and they are  trying to make a "turn" on Fleabay.

.

My crude model predicts the following over the next three days in terms of total cases:

0 days: 206

+1 day: 274 (+68)

+2 days: 347 (+73)

+3 days: 432 (+85)

I feel another league table coming on, Caz. We each predict if/when we are going to get Covid-19 across March to July.

We'd need a thread and organiser for that.

Roger

The  problem will be categorically knowing if you have had it - especially for the younger members of the forum who are more likely  to have mild  symptoms .  Additionally, if it really takes off, no way will they be able to offer testing for everyone.

An expert on this subject said 80% was the effective limit precisely for that reason. It also means that the rate of infection will slow at some point - we have to hope the mild variant is the one that spreads most.

Hardly a rational decision to go on a cruise when a novel virus pandemic is gripping the world. You are trapped if a fellow passenger tests positive and you are then on a plague ship and likely to get infected too.

It is the same with visiting Italy at the moment - unless the visit is essential - don't!

The Copenhagen office of the company I work for is closed this coming week for deep clean and colleagues of the guy whose wife went to Milan have been told to work from home and self isolate for two weeks - all because his wife went to Milan last weekend, fell ill on Wednesday and tested positive on Thursday. Bonkers behaviour!

Of course, we will get the epidemic here, but no point exposing yourself to it by visiting  a country where it is already endemic or going on a cruise and risking incarceration with a boatload of sick people.

The French team should not be travelling to Murrayfield tomorrow - the French have not contained the virus at all and they are on the same road as Italy.

P.S. a virus epidemic ends once sufficient people have had it and built up antibodies to it - that is how the Spanish Flu finally ended after three waves of it.

That's 99% I think. Do we have details of the other 1%?

Hopefully a century on, with infinitely better healthcare and medicines and the likelihood of a vaccine, we won't see three waves of anything like the same intensity and mortality rates.

I agree about not travelling to areas which have outbreaks - and I agree about not going on a cruise ship now. My point was that two weeks ago the numbers were significantly lower and the perceived risk similarly lower. How many cruise ships are there versus the number reporting infections?  I expect it's still very much the minority but I agree that you really don't want to be stuck on one if an outbreak occurs.

Probably the rounding effect?

It would seem they're not really organised or prepared. You know there's an issue when people are being charged $3,000 for a Coronavirus test instead of it being picked up by the federal government. That alone is indicative of sloppy thinking.