Italy will be a test. If law and order breaks down what then? Snatch squads and immediate execution? Or will the police and army simply be told to shoot on sight? In the UK I think we're still a few weeks away from that scenario.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

My comment was tongue in cheek obviously, Germany has a superb healthcare system and a high number of ICUs, so they will probably have fewer deaths than other countries. The concentration of infections also seems very important, Lombardy is now like Hubei. I just checked the data (per 100k people) and I was surprised and dismayed at how few ICU beds does the NHS have actually. I imagine though that this is just one aspect and that the NHS must have some flexibility?

Germany: 29.2
Luxembourg: 24.8
Austria: 21.8
Belgium: 21.4
Lithuania: 15.5
Croatia: 14.7
Estonia: 14.6
Hungary: 13.8
**ITALY**: 12.5
Bulgaria: 11.6
France: 11.6
Czech Republic: 11.6
Cyprus: 11.4
Switzerland: 11
Spain: 9.7
Latvia: 9.7
Slovakia: 9.2
Iceland: 9.1
Norway: 8
Andorra: 7.1
Poland: 6.9
Denmark: 6.7
**UNITED KINGDOM**: 6.6
Iceland: 6.5
Slovenia: 6.4
Netherlands: 6.4
Finland: 6.1
Greece: 6
Sweden: 5.8
Portugal: 4.5

EUROPE AVERAGE: 11.5

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Is a massive concern that's why we probably need 'extreme' measures like quarantining and mass school closures sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

They have some terrific weather up there I have been told.

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Is a massive concern that's why we probably need 'extreme' measures like quarantining and mass school closures sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Rishi Sunak telling me as a self employed person to apply for Universal credit if I can't get to work because of the virus crisis. F##k off.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Surely after last night’s news the FCO need to advice against all but essential travel to the whole of Lombardy etc? 

A lot of people will need to cancel holidays now and will need to be covered by their insurers. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

My uni mate from Milan just emailed me and he says so far people seem surprisingly calm about the quarantine and many were expecting it. Some see it as necessary in order to save the lives of more elderly people, while some see it as an overreaction that will harm many more people due the drop in demand.

He also mocks the 1 metre rule in restaurants, but he says it's understandable they they keep them open.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Which schools and for how long? Until the outbreak has passed? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

How many weeks? Just so we can revisit, if we haven’t been culled.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Good neat summary of the two reactions.

I thought the 1 metre rule rather odd. I think if you’re in a confined space for an extended period (a meal) then that’s not sufficient.  What about the staff? How are they going to serve from a metre away?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Oh blimey - and close the roads and railways too?

Might it make more sense for the world to clean up air pollution and crack down on smoking so we all have healthy lungs? Nah, after all air pollution and smoking aren't obvious enough killers and only cause millions of deaths a year...

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Like the UAE,  Bahrain, Iran, Italy , Japan,  South Korea, and   China all schools for at least a 2 weeks/month. Connect to the Easter holidays to make it longer.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Is a massive concern that's why we probably need 'extreme' measures like quarantining and mass school closures sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Might it make more sense for the world to clean up air pollution and crack down on smoking so we all have healthy lungs? Nah, after all air pollution and smoking aren't obvious enough killers and only cause millions of deaths a year...

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

My serious predictions are in the previous thread if anyone is interested. Now it's open season for the apocalypse!!!!!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indoor air pollution does indeed kill millions of people a year, mostly in poor countries where they have to burn wood and dung to cook and provide warmth. 

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

At times of uncertainty and risk it’s sometimes helpful to ‘fast forward’: what will things look like 6 and 12 months from now? Some people will have died from this; sadly some of us will lose elderly friends and relatives.  But it will pass and become a footnote in history like Spanish Flu and others.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We also had the outbreaks of Bird Flu and then Swine Flu in the mid-late noughties, both of which received a lot of media coverage at the time. I can't recall to what extent those diseases affected the UK, but I don't think either had the effect on this country that COVID19 is now having.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

At times of uncertainty and risk it’s sometimes helpful to ‘fast forward’: what will things look like 6 and 12 months from now? Some people will have died from this; sadly some of us will lose elderly friends and relatives.  But it will pass and become a footnote in history like Spanish Flu and others.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

My serious predictions are in the previous thread if anyone is interested. Now it's open season for the apocalypse!!!!!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If schools close, this could cause a knock-on effect for workers as they may need to take time off to look after their children.Parents are entitled to “dependent leave” in order to look after their children without facing disciplinary action.However, this is not necessarily paid time off - as it depends on your agreement with your employer. One strategy could be to use holiday days in order to still get paid, however again this is at the discretion of your employer.

I spoke to a number of primary teachers last week many are reluctant to extend the Easter break and probably forfeit some of the summer break, it does cause a lot of problems as many have already booked summer holiday which in itself would be a insurance nightmare.

Having said all that most would agree to extended Easter if it was beneficial to everybody, one must under that increasing class sizes if colleagues are ill is not a teaching and learning class more often than not it becomes a baby sitting situation.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yes, but outdoor air pollution is damaging the lungs of millions in developed countries and it's one of the few area where Europe is doing worse than the US due to the fcking german industry and the pathetic EU response. A topic of another thread I guess.

Originally Posted by: xioni2