Thanks. To be honest it’s reassuring to have your occasional input here given the frankly bizarre efforts by rather too many contributors. The sane voices are in danger of being drowned out by hysterical and contradictory outpourings.

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Prof Neil Ferguson’s uppermost estimate was 400,000 (unlikely), so I don’t see how 100,000 is out of the question.

No it isn't if you have exponential growth.

That's the reason this whole thing is such a problem.

 

Thankfully even small measures can stop that kind of thing from happening. And thankfully the UK is not in the exponential growth phase yet.

 

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If you can keep it contained to one community you don't need a mass quarantine.

The problem is waiting too long and letting it get out of hand.

 

The UK really needs to get it's sh1t together now.

The USA, France, Germany, Spain and frankly most of Europe need to be on those Forgein office lists.

 

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I knew someone would drag the words ‘exponential’ and ‘growth’ into this.  The virus won’t necessarily follow a model of an uncontrolled epidemic; I assume you do realise this?

If we do nothing it could get nasty; but we’re not doing nothing. Which you accept.

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That (400,000) implies over 20 MILLION cases; 1 in 3 of the population. That assumes a 2% mortality rate. At 1% it’s two-thirds of the entire population.

100,000 deaths implies over 5 million cases.  If the mortality rate is  1% then it’s 10 million.  As I said, by the end of March we might have reached 5,000. Are you seriously saying it will get 1,000x to 2,000x worse?

I think 100,000 is out of the question but time will tell.

 

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Agreed and most likely is to end up less than 1000.

My total guess based on 100x worse than China is around 300,000 or so UK cases. A total guèss though.

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Main headlines today

- Italy: 1,797 new cases, 97 new deaths
- Iran: 595 new cases, 43 new deaths
- Spain: 558 new cases, 13 new deaths
- France: 203 new cases, 11 new deaths
- Germany: 184 new cases, 2 new deaths

Watching Press Review on Sky and Newsnight...sensible commentators like Stig Abel, and Stephen Bush of the New Statesman...both in their different ways, supporting action taken by British Govt thus far, saying that Hancock has done a good job...and is well regarded by the opposition parties unlike many other ministers...and urging sense of perspective...There are many things to pillary this Govt for, but this is not one of them..oh and Farsge popped up to condemn the Govt and to warn of pending catastrophe for the UK.

The “Oshiri Girls”, three girls with buttocks on their heads, promote Oshiri Shower Shower, a disposable bottom-washing contraption. pic.twitter.com/H56cMFVn9y

— Mondo Mascots (@mondomascots) March 9, 2020

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If we are Italy in 2 weeks time, I think you will have changed your tune

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I'd be surprised if any of the major European countries are able to contain the virus now. It seems too many people are passing it on, given the long incubation period. I even think it may even be too little too late for Italy, despite the lockdown.

Of course we shall see, but I think it's a case of batten down the hatches now...

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Looks like this is true according to the BBC.

 

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The worrying thing here is that Farage has been right on a hell of a lot of things.

I personally don't think the government are doing enough. As has been seen across other countries, this virus doesn't mess about and will punish dithering. Once the NHS collapses, there will be mass panic.

The fact that other countries are fully sacrificing their economy to try to contain this virus gives us all the warning we need. Seemingly it is not being heeded though and I fear we'll see thousands upon thousands of deaths by the time this is all over.

This isn't scaremongering or doom and gloom...it's happening in real life in countries around us. I personally cannot fathom what we are waiting for in terms of introducing more draconian measures...but then again, what do I know!

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457 deaths, not 128. The worst case scenario was 65,000 deaths.

But it turned out that most elderly people were immune to swine flu, millions of vaccinations were administered and the peak came just before the summer months.

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All of Italy in lock-down.

Five identified cases of the old corona in Berkhamsted so there will already be significantly more. Frankly I think the response of the UK government has been pathetic.

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its not me that is suggesting it. 

I popped into Tesco earlier, on my way in to work, to buy bits for the office (coffee, milk etc).

It seems that after a slow start, panic-buying has finally hit Sheerness! Albeit as everyone's so damned poor around here, there's plenty of Andrex but no cheap or own-brand toilet rolls left, just empty pallets. I didn't see the pasta or tinned food aisles, but I did note that there's still no hand gel: I'm down to my last 25% here and not looking forward to having to improvise once that runs out. (One thing I was thinking of doing was buying some packs of latex gloves, on the basis that you can just chuck 'em in the bin afterwards.)

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Oddly no stockpiling nor panic buying of these products. You would think disposable gloves would be on people's lists.

The consensus at work is that a lot of people have lost leave of their senses. Talking to a colleague who said they were asked for an order of 160 boxes of lemon scented hand wipes for one customer! That's 5 pallets. He almost choked. Average sell of this product is 20 boxes per year across all customers!!!

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Hmm, you would, come to think of it! Maybe the fact they lurk in the kitchen cleaning aisle rather than the healthcare or toilet roll section has put them out of people's minds?

Thinking about it, I'll probably buy three boxes tomorrow - one for each of us in the office. Dealing with kids' keyboards, not to mention using door handles etc used by thousands of children each day is a great way to pick up a bug... hence the usual use of hand gel here. It's interesting though that nobody in a position of power in the school seems to have thought of this either. I know the nearby school with a Coronavirus-infected pupil is belatedly installing hand gel dispensers for staff and pupils, but getting hold of hand gel is easier said than done... even the county suppliers that caretakers use are out of the stuff.

It's astonishing what can happen to some people when they panic! I do wonder what they'll be doing with all those boxes later in the summer when this has peaked...

 

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Why is the Cheltenham festival going ahead when it was abandoned in 2001 because of foot and mouth which started late February?

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Looking at our relations' locations in Italy, Umbria is now 28 cases and Lazio [Ostia] 102. [Source Xioni!]

https://www.corriere.it/speciale/salute/2020/mappa-coronavirus-italia/

Reflecting on the differences between life in Italy and the UK I would single out family sociability [big gatherings, dining together, many generations in households] in Italy. I may be wrong. I also sense that the elderly in Italy are more likely to remain in proximity to their families, rather than being in social care. Again I may be wrong - it's just an impression. IMO, both these factors may contribute to the speed of CO-19 spread, but again, this is just conjecture based on my experiences there.

Roger

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When I taught basic microbiology, computer keyboards were near/at the top culprits for micro-organisms, Retron. But then everything kids touch in school is potentially dodgy. How do you sterilise a keyboard or mouse? University of Google says: first turn off your computer...

Here's eHow's take on it:

https://www.ehow.com/how_5120964_disinfect-keyboard.html

When living through the '50s Polio epidemic we were made to dip our hands in a solution of Pot permanganate to kill the virus.

Roger

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Deputy Medical Officer has just said outdoor gatherings are safer than indoor gatherings.

HFM affected mostly under 10s and was (current thinking) much more contagious than CVD. It also spread just as easily in animals as in humans.

The racing and gambling industry is worth billions in tax income. That’s an observation not necessarily a factor ☺️

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