https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-uk-epidemic-will-soon-peak-in-same-way-as-china-5zqlpbn30

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Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer, told Today on BBC Radio 4: “If you have a new disease, the normal thing is, it will take off gradually. It will rise very rapidly at one point and come back down again when it effectively runs out of people in the population to infect.”

Asked about the number of new cases compared to China in the past 24 hours, she said: “China is in a very different position. They are at the end of their current epidemic peak and we will be shortly at the start of ours.”

"

So there you have it folks - they have decided (the authorities) to go for herd immunity by allowing the contagion to spread. Too late to do anything else. Will be interesting to see how things pan out in those countries like Moldova which have gone for isolation instead.

We are at an earlier stage than Italy as it is. But our goal should be to delay even more.

Nottingham Forest's owner has tested positive for coronavirus. He was at the Forest game on Friday night and is understood to have met with the fans and staff including players.

Big decision from the EFL to be made now.

We announced our first 2 cases on the 31/01 which was the same day that Italy announced their first 2 cases. For the next 3 weeks there was only a few more cases announced and it was on the 21/02 that the proverbial hit the fan in Italy. 

Are you assuming that cases in the UK will rocket like they have in Italy? Surely that is not definite? If you look at countries in the Far East one thing is certain is that the impact has been different on different countries. There is no set pattern for this so we cannot say with any certainty how it will progress in the UK. It may explode like Italy or it may plod along like Japan.....

Could Iran have peaked? New cases down for the third day in a row.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

Playing matches behind closed doors seems an inevitability.

It was interesting that Dr Jenny Harries said big events are relatively safe though, given the virus apparently doesn't survive well outside. 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

More to the point - what happens about tomorrow's Champions League match in Liverpool against Atletico Madrid?

The January cases was part of an isolated outbreak linked directly to China. I wouldn't count them. What we are seeing currently is linked to the Italian cluster rather than directly to China, and we are significantly behind Italy here.

What I'm saying is the best case scenario that we should be  aiming for will lead to a peak much later than Italy. The further away the peak the flatter the curve and the less severe it will be. A peak in around June is an optimistic scenario and something we should hope for. If it comes earlier it will be narrower and worse.

Hear, hear.  R.

Btw one other way I know the UK is doing better than other European countries:

I have not yet noticed a single case anywhere in the world (outside the UK) of someone with COVID who contracted it in the UK. Yet we are seeing French, German, Spanish and Swiss cases elsewhere in the world. 

Note how we saw somthing similar with SK. Very few cases from SK outside of SK itself.

Beats me why you are giving Gandalf the thumbs up - he has been consistently wrong about this from the outset (with the exception of Singapore).

Iran is a tricky one. Are/have they been totally truthful with data from the start?

I'd trust data more from Italy than Iran in all honesty.

You have good company here on the other side of the pond. Apparently, the 'economy' is of higher value than the control of the spread. 

Read his comment - he's not wrong on that, MM. What is more, it is not wrong for anyone to make predictive errors in science. That's how things move forward. The important thing is to be led by reliable data, and to heed the comments of people in the know when extrapolating. It helps if posters give their sources or reasoning and to make it clear when they are expressing their own opinions. It is also worth remembering that the folks who might argue with you are your partners in seeking to understand what is going on. A critic is not necessarily an enemy. An opposing opinion is not necessarily an attack on one's integrity! 

Roger

Fair enough, but there is prediction and there is changing outlook on the basis of the evidence. Clearly, those of us raising the alarm in the early days and suggesting stronger travel restrictions, were more right, than those accusing us of being hysterical.

When the hotspot in northern Italy was first identified more than 10 days ago, I was ridiculed for suggesting that neighbouring countries such as France, Switzerland and Austria should close their borders - yet today, Austria has done exactly that (but too late to be truly effective).

Locally we've got 6 official cases in 20000. That's way higher than Switzerland. Unofficially we have far more. The situation is out of control here. We'll see that soon. 

Are you being serious or not? Genuine question and I’m not being funny with you! :-) 

The same applies everywhere - the headline statistics only give you the values for those who have been tested - not for those who are infected but have not been tested. The real level of infection everywhere is an order of magnitude higher than the official figures - an epidemiologist at Kings College said the other day that true levels of infection, according to their modelling, were 10 to 20 times higher than the official figures.

Never miss an opportunity to make a quick buck or ten.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1237160264522444810

As of yesterday, Merseyside has 6 official cases (out of 1.38m) and Gtr Manchester 22 (out of 2.81m)

Must be a bunch of soap-dodging scruffs in Berko.

Consistently wrong?

I have said that people are over-reacting.  That much is absolutely true and you're still doing it.

Have you stopped to consider why people in charge, with knowledge and expertise in these areas that is much greater than yours, have taken the decisions they have?  You keep making knee-jerk, hysterical comments with no regard for the wider implications.

I'll say it again.  You wanted cruise ships to be stopped.  That's at least 500,000 jobs and likely a lot more and the potential bankruptcy of the cruise companies.

You've demanded this be closed and that be cancelled. Again, with significant consequences.

The people we pay to take these decisions have to weigh a range of factors in reaching their decisions.  They don't have the luxury of shooting from the hip.

Your position has been absurd and the fact that the outbreak is spreading, which was inevitable, doesn't validate your absurdity.

Have you seen the news? What people are advocating here is no different to what a number of European countries are now doing. You are and have been very much behind the curve on this one.

This is about getting the timing right.   The government has been saying this - did you not hear it?   It's about balance again - taking the right steps at the right time.

If by 'being behind the curve' you mean refusing to indulge in the hyperbola and misinformation, simplistic and ill-considered advice and lack of grasp of epidemiology then yes, guilty as charged.