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Devonian
10 March 2020 19:00:19


 


Indeed. Now Italy is in lockdown, Spain becomes potentially an even bigger threat.


 


Also for those talking about containment through shutting borders e.c.t. I would add this. Border closure can be very effective if done early, it's arguably too late for us even now. But keep in mind that Iran was worse than Italy and that when the middle east shut it's borders to Iran there did seem to be some degree of sucess.


The problem is, had the UK shut it's borders completely to Italy earlier but the rest of Europe had continued as normal then it would have been completely ineffective. If there was one thing the EU could demonstrate it's utility, it would be for a Europe wide response to the crisis. This is one of those occasions when something like the EU could have been really helpful. But it's too late for that now.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't think (short of imprisoning everyone in their homes and not allowing any movement until there is a vaccine) this virus can, or could have been, be contained.


That's my current reading of it all.


Is the Uk doing enough to flatten the peak? More than the US is (which wouldn't be difficult) but perhaps not enough. Johnson needs to look to Europe for examples to bind to.


 

Brian Gaze
10 March 2020 19:01:19


The UK is still not convincingly in the exponential growth phase. For there to be exponential growth the cumulative day on day increase must roughly be constant (or increasing). If it is declining then we have not yet reached exponential growth.


 


% growth rate for last five complete days (on cumulative cases)


UK: 35,42,26,33,17   (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)


Italy: 25,20,27,25,24 (Constant: Exponential growth likely)


Spain: 24,32,18,57,83 (Increasing: Exponential growth very likely)


France: 48,45,55,19,25 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)


Germany: 45,53,28,24,34 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)


Netherlands: 116,56,47,40,22,19 (Decreasing: Exponential growth not yet reached)


Sweeden: 81,68,11,34,36 (Volatile: Exponential growth possible)


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What about London?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
10 March 2020 19:02:38


 


I don't think (short of imprisoning everyone in their homes and not allowing any movement until there is a vaccine) this virus can, or could have been, be contained.


That's my current reading of it all.


Is the Uk doing enough to flatten the peak? More than the US is (which wouldn't be difficult) but perhaps not enough. Johnson needs to look to Europe for examples to bind to.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


The UK is doing better than other European countries. I suspect that's due to more meticulous contact tracing. Perhaps the handwashing campaigns have also been somewhat effective (since handwashing is probably the best method to easily limit spread).


I'll admit I'm not completely sure why the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe but the empirical evidence suggests it is. I would personally go further, especially in locking down travel (and I'd have done it earlier) but aside from that we are doing something right.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
10 March 2020 19:03:40


 


What about London?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Potentially but there isn't enough data to say, would be far too noisy to reach any conclusions.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Essan
10 March 2020 19:04:48


 As this was circulating long before the first case was diagnosed presumably there are a lot of cases not being reported and not needing medical intevvention so I think care is needed over interpreting the mortality rate. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Very likely given the latest:


Experts believe most people who get the infection will only have mild disease. Some will be asymptomatic, ie carrying the virus but experiencing no symptoms.


But the disease can be very serious and even deadly for some - typically elderly people with pre-existing health conditions.


Prof Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said the study confirmed that for the vast majority of cases, the incubation and therefore quarantine period for new coronavirus, will be up to 14 days.


And, encouragingly: "There is little if any evidence that people can routinely transmit virus during the asymptomatic period."


People are thought to be most contagious when they have obvious symptoms, like cough and fever.


Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51800707

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Quantum
10 March 2020 19:06:47

We should take inspiration from both China and South Korea. These are the only two countries that have turned it round from a position of sustained local transmission and exponential growth.


Both countries were meticulous and agressive.


And yes it may become necessary to quarantine parts of the UK.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
speckledjim
10 March 2020 19:10:01


 


What about London?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


London’s figures are 4, 9, 13, 10, 30 so potential is there.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
10 March 2020 19:11:28


 


London’s figures are 4, 9, 13, 10, 30 so potential is there.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Indeed. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
10 March 2020 19:13:31


 


One of the reasons cited for the UK's softly-softly approach currently is to mitigate the risk of the double peak scenario - if you isolate too much, too soon then you run the risk of a second wave down the line.


Worth remembering a lot of the projections are model output. And we know a lot about model output...


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Exactly.


But whilst computer models of the atmosphere with multiple variables are invariably wrong we are supposed to believe that computer simulations of virus pandemics with many unknowns are always correct; exponential growth is inevitable..... allegedly.


And those of us that have quietly argued for a line that isn't riddled with guesswork, misinformation and a lack of real understanding are being complacent... allegedly.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
10 March 2020 19:18:08


 


London’s figures are 4, 9, 13, 10, 30 so potential is there.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Yes, we should keep an eye on London. It is prime position.l to develop uncontrolled. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Devonian
10 March 2020 19:18:37


 


One of the reasons cited for the UK's softly-softly approach currently is to mitigate the risk of the double peak scenario - if you isolate too much, too soon then you run the risk of a second wave down the line.


Worth remembering a lot of the projections are model output. And we know a lot about model output...


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I heard some expert on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.


 

Gandalf The White
10 March 2020 19:21:04


 


Its crazy therefore to think that the Atletico Madrid match is not being played behind closed doors tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Yes, I guess it wouldn't be fair to ban visiting fans alone.  I guess if you can keep them all at least two metres away from the home fans and the stewards....


The chances of nobody amongst the travelling fans having the virus must be very low.   In fact I'd be more concerned if I was a Atletico fan sitting on a plane and coach for several hours.


I see both the Bayern/Chelsea and LASK/ManU games are now being played behind closed doors so it's doubly odd that the same isn't being applied to the Liverpool tie.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


westv
10 March 2020 19:21:19


 


I'll admit I'm not completely sure why the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe but the empirical evidence suggests it is. I would personally go further, especially in locking down travel (and I'd have done it earlier) but aside from that we are doing something right.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's because we are British and have won 1st prize in the lottery of life. :-)

At least it will be mild!
speckledjim
10 March 2020 19:21:54


 


I heard some expect on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Thats what happened with swine flu, it dropped off in the Summer and there was a 2nd burst in Autumn.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
10 March 2020 19:24:57


 


I heard some expect on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


I think that's exactly the situation; isn't the 'safe' level somewhere towards 80%; the point at which someone with the virus is very unlikely to come into contact with someone without immunity?


Spanish flu came in three waves. Hopefully a vaccine will be available between waves 2 and 3 if not sooner. So far nobody is predicting a vaccine before the end of 2020.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
10 March 2020 19:28:12
39 days in the UK has 373 cases and 6 deaths

24 days in Italy has 9,172 cases and 463 deaths
Ally Pally Snowman
10 March 2020 19:32:15

New cases in Jamaica and Greece connected to UK travel


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
10 March 2020 19:32:24


 


The UK is doing better than other European countries. I suspect that's due to more meticulous contact tracing. Perhaps the handwashing campaigns have also been somewhat effective (since handwashing is probably the best method to easily limit spread).


I'll admit I'm not completely sure why the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe but the empirical evidence suggests it is. I would personally go further, especially in locking down travel (and I'd have done it earlier) but aside from that we are doing something right.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


So far and I put that down to extensive and early testing. A virologist was on C4 News just now and she did say the authorities have been aggressively chasing down the contacts of those testing positive and getting them to self isolate - perhaps it has been working so far. But she also did say the numbers will ramp up as community spread increases. They also had an Italian doctor on and he described what happened in Lombardy as a "bomb, but worse than a bomb since it keeps coming". Difficult to comprehend what happened in Lombardy to be honest, but he said part of the problem is that many people live in dormitory towns and travel into Milan to work - but that applies to any large city. I guess that the infection hit hard in a dormitory town and Milan stood no chance as a consequence - whatever the reason, it is certainly true that the vast majority of those spreading the infection elsewhere in Europe had come through Milan airports and I do so wish this country had acted more swiftly to close down flights to and from Milan in the early days.


 

New world order coming.
speckledjim
10 March 2020 19:32:32

39 days in the UK has 373 cases and 6 deaths

24 days in Italy has 9,172 cases and 463 deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The virus has been in Italy for the same amount of days as UK

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Arcus
10 March 2020 19:34:57


 


I heard some expert on R4 (I don't mean that pejoratively) saying we could see it return in the autumn and onward. I found that odd given I'd have though immunity would spread as people caught cv. But, perhaps he meant not enough people would catch it for such herd immunity to grow enough.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Indeed - and raises a very important point. The only way currently to gain immunity before a vaccine is available is to get the virus (and survive) - and there are caveats on that as secondary infection is still being discussed (due to possible variants? no-one knows).


I heard earlier on from a contact that current numbers on UK infection are probably underestimating by a factor of 10 as a conservative estimate - those in the mix that are not symptomatic enough to warrant that step to testing. We have to hope that the "silent" cases remain in the vast majority to lever in this natural immunity before the next "season" begins - and that there's not a major "shift" in the virus of course.


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Bugglesgate
10 March 2020 19:37:45


 


It's because we are British and have won 1st prize in the lottery of life. :-)


Originally Posted by: westv 


 


More likely " It's becuase we are British and we  don't like all that "huggy, kissing-on-both cheeks" nonsense".


It's that rare occasion  that  being a misanthropic, anti social b'stard  is actually a good thing and being a "party animal"  is  bad news.


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Bugglesgate
10 March 2020 19:41:00


 


What about London?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Yes, population density and the predominance of Public Transport would appear to be  good vectors of infection.  Probably no different from any other big city though.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Maunder Minimum
10 March 2020 19:41:14


I don't think (short of imprisoning everyone in their homes and not allowing any movement until there is a vaccine) this virus can, or could have been, be contained.


That's my current reading of it all.


Is the Uk doing enough to flatten the peak? More than the US is (which wouldn't be difficult) but perhaps not enough. Johnson needs to look to Europe for examples to bind to.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Europe has been rubbish on this - we should have been looking at Taiwan and how they managed to keep the spread to a minimum.

New world order coming.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 March 2020 19:53:24


 Spanish flu came in three waves. Hopefully a vaccine will be available between waves 2 and 3 if not sooner. So far nobody is predicting a vaccine before the end of 2020.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 


The vaccine that is available now is the one against bacterial (not viral) pneumonia, which diminishes greatly the risk of secondary infection. Pneumonia, often as a secondary infection from seasonal flu, was nicknamed "the old man's friend" as it eased the passing of many old folk in generally poor health.


I'm glad that my wife and I were offered and accepted it back in January.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roadrunnerajn
10 March 2020 19:56:58

My Daughter is in Taiwan at the moment and she tells me she can’t go anywhere without her temperature being checked and wearing a face mask. If there are any concerns you are quarantined immediately.

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
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