I am with Quantum in this debate and always have been. Authorities on the whole have been doing too little too late across the board - as I keep pointing out, Taiwan showed the way back at the outset.

My wife's friend is here today and she has a holiday let in southern Italy and friends over there. She has been texted this afternoon by an Italian friend to say that the government there is issuing a new decree this evening preventing all internal travel - people have to stay at home unless they can prove good reason to travel.

Now that is what I call draconian.

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I believe we are now at the beginning of the acceleration stage. Positive to tests are more than double the percentage yesterday, the number of positives are also higher in real terms against a background of fewer tests actually being done yesterday.

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Has Raab tested negative? If not why was he in HoC?

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Will be interesting to see how many of the 83 are in London. It was here where we saw the biggest increase yesterday.

Raab is one of the UnDead in any case, so he should be immune.

Just read the following on the BBC website - so much for EU solidarity:

"

Yesterday we shared the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had declared the epidemic in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, as "virtually curbed".

Now, in a powerful signal, the country is sending aid to Italy.

Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, who has nurtured close ties with Beijing, had a chat with his opposite number on Tuesday.

Now China has offered 100,000 face masks, 20,000 protective suits and 1,000 ventilators. Chinese state media said the Red Cross Society of China was even considering sending a medical team to Italy.

Late last night, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a €25bn (£22bn; $28bn) Corona Response Investment Fund.

At present, three EU states - Germany, France and the Czech Republic - have banned the export of face masks to ensure they don't go short themselves."

 

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Will be Liverpool next week - I cannot believe that the match against Atletico is going ahead. I emailed my MP last week begging her to use her influence to get the match abandoned.

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Since when is the expression 'sustained local transmission' the same as 'exponential growth'?

I repeat, you didn't make yourself clear.

 

The countries of the Middle East are seeing a growth in cases.  Just look at the data.

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I am with you on this point - given the outbreak in Spain it does seem an unnecessary risk.  It could have been played behind closed doors, of course.

But is it any riskier than allowing Cheltenham to take place?

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We have absolutely no idea re local transmission and exponential growth in many, many countries as they are testing so few people. Turkey, for example, has performed less than 1000 tests. 

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Exponential growth is a consequence of sustained local transmission.

 

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Mortality rate (global 😵 for the last 3 days up to today:

Minuscule rise.  

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Cases by region in England

• East of England | 32 (+3)


• London | 104 (+13)


• Midlands | 42 (+6)


• North East and Yorkshire | 32 (+8)


• North West | 43 (+6)


• South East | 60 (+9)


• South West | 44 (+3)

To be determined | 30 (+15)

Delay phase being mooted for this Sunday to begin. Anyone know the actual affect this will have ?

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A statement will be made in the commons at 7pm tonight. Maybe that will contain more info.

 

That adds up to 63 new cases for England, so it's an increase of just under 20%, which is about the same as yesterday.  

A doubling roughly every four days on these figures.

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Is it not possible that this virus was already in Italy or Iran back in early January when it was still just starting to make headlines in China.

 

The BBC piece shows under the 'Delay' phase:  close schools, encourage home working, limit large gatherings.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

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Isn't it time for Boris to address the nation?

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That will come tomorrow after the COBRA meeting.

I hope they don't close schools as part of this - it is not the best approach. For flu pandemics, closing schools makes sense, since children are the most susceptible to influenza, but by all accounts, children don't suffer much with COVID-19, it is the elderly who are most at risk - closing schools will mean grand parents and the retired being more exposed than otherwise, I would have thought.

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Given that the first transmission in Wuhan was sometime in the latter part of December it's quite possible that some Chinese people or people returning from the Wuhan area carried it with them before any restrictions were put in place.

 

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Will he give a better impression than Trump?  Trump seems more concerned about the stock market and his re-election prospects.

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And what would he say that we don't know already?

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I realise there are far more serious things to worry about but from a personal point of view I am doing a major marathon next month and am unsure whether to continue training for it or whether to assume it will not be run (seeing how things have gone so far I find it hard to see it going ahead). My next long run is scheduled for Sunday but I am moving that to Tuesday when I have a day off as I don't want to do a 20 mile training run and then find later that day, or on the next day, that the marathon is cancelled/postponed.

While no-one can be sure one way or the other, given the way in which the virus has spread to so many countries around the world since the turn of the year, I wouldn't be at all surprised if what you say is pretty near to the truth, Peter.

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With that possibility then there would have been no way to contain the virus, but that i guess would also lean weight towards the idea that this virus is not much worse than the flu.