Still the tip of the iceberg - @ 300 Shiite pilgrims returning to a ME country yesterday ( I did not catch which one) were tested and put into quarantine - 50% of those tested proved positive. There will genuinely be millions infected in Iran as I stated over a week ago (to derision from some quarters).

German experiments show that COVID-19 sheds (i.e. spreads from an infected person) at 1,000 the rate of SARS for comparison.

EasyJet are still flying to Milan from LGW, Edinburgh and Manchester today - lunatic!

I asked my contact in Milan if he knows anything about the symptoms there. Anecdotal obviously by he says most people he knows they got it, only had 'inconvenient/annoying symptoms like a cold'.

He also says that the closure of restaurants, cafes and bars has made the biggest psychological impact on people and there is obviously more fear now (but mostly for old people).

There seems to be confusion about the symptoms. That is another worry. For example, does it give a sniffly nose like a cold? I've heard yes and no as the answer. 

Like most European countries, Denmark showed extreme complacency, allowed travel to and from Italy without checks, did too little testing at home and guess what? Now they are in panic mode, people are panic buying and the government is taking action, but they still leave their borders open.

What is it that European governments don't get? Closing borders is an essential part of keeping the virus at bay, combined with automatic 14 day quarantine for those coming in, extensive testing and temperature monitoring.

Some countries understood this and took appropriate action at an early stage - Taiwan, Moldova, Israel - all are now doing the right thing.

But in Europe which is now the global epicentre outside of Iran, they have just let it rip and the European people still trust their politicians????

I've actually read repeatedly that sniffly nose is relatively rare. This is another area where the UK govt is not following the WHO guidelines IMO:

• Establish and maintain a relationship of trust with the public


• Be clear and repeat often what the symptoms are and what the public should do if they suspect an infection


• Be transparent on the progress of the outbreak and what the authorities are doing about it

FTSE continues to tank. Looks a bit like the next crash that was always going to come at some point. As I might be giving up work this year I'll be happy to get it over and done with.

That sounds like a pretty solid increase. What was it yesterday?

I would strongly recommend everyone read this.


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Yes.

Maybe we should have a TWO sweepstake. The winner gets free toiler roll for a year. 

Hear hear, MM.

Thanks. Measures I have taken personally:

• increased quantity and quality of hand washing since late Jan


• started working from home since the 5th of March


• I will now start staying at home much more


• I will self isolate if I get a fever or and coughing


• I started watching the Sopranos for a third time, but UIA is an issue

343/1 

Yesterday

Excellent Nick - this is the key part for me:

"

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).


• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

"

Plus:

"Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them, use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen."

Which, I believe, puts it at very similar levels as the Spanish flu which had the same sort of heterogenity.

Seems like there is a good chance this could be the worst pandemic in our lifetimes.

It's at the 'severe' end of forecasts, but I agree that we need to be taking certain measures now.

At my work, we've spent the past fortnight making sure everybody can work from home if they have to. There's always been the option to WFH for odd days where there's a reason. We've got extra hand sanitisers everywhere, and taken loads of other little steps to help protect people. Realistically, I can't fault my employers here.

But they're not encouraging people to work from home. From speaking with one of the senior management team, they're waiting for guidance from the Govt. 

And this guidance hasn't been forthcoming. 

They only need to say something like "Whilst we appreciate not everyone can work from home, we ask that employers encourage staff who can effectively work from home to do so." That would trigger a lot of employers to flip to that being the policy for now.

Fewer people travelling on public transport. Fewer people congregating at workplaces/offices. Few potentially spreading contagion.