So, fewer than 1,000 deaths, assuming the 75,000 is not skewed towards the more vulnerable.  If so, that would be a fantastic result given some of the predictions.

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How does that marry up with the desire to achieve "herd immunity" which Vallance says needs 60% infection?

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My "not really much fun at all" model is still predicting circa 30 to 50 million UK cases in total.

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I doubt it's going to stay on 75k though. It was 21k yesterday.

My hope is the volatility in the model predictions will start to decrease over time as the data comes in.

Also the 75k is confirmed cases, not actual cases.

 

 

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From the Telegraph:

"Boris Johnson is to hold talks with world leaders amid efforts to coordinate a global response to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Prime Minister spokesman this afternoon confirmed that he would hold a series of calls with other leaders, having already spoken to Emmanuel Macron and Justin Trudeau.

It comes amid concern that efforts to slow the spread of the virus could be hampered without international cooperation"

 

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It assumes a roughly constant decline in R0. The model  is incapable of forecasting resurgent periods which would be as a result of an unsustainable drop in R0 which then rises again due to complacency e.c.t.

The UK does seem to be gearing towards a long term reduction in R0 rather than a short term one. So they seem to be banking on a resurgence occuring in SK, singapore e.c.t.

But I don't know. I wouldn't take any results out of this model too seriously. HMG will have far more sophisticated models than I do.

 

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My Millwall match is cancelled tomorrow but I reckon I'll still head over. Or am I mad not to cancel my trip?

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Indeed. The Kings College epidemiologist who originally said the testing figures understated the true figure by a factor of 10 to 20, yesterday revised that to a factor of 50 to 100 times.

So your 75k becomes 7,500,000 on the top estimate.

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I think real panic stations to the general public will kick in when somebody ‘famous’ becomes critically ill / dies.

Incidentally, we’ve all just had a notice to crash our diaries for a Cov-19 conference call at 3pm.
I suspect we’ll all be ordered to WFH from now on...

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Sensible.

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3,007 test results in the 24hrs to 9am with 208 positive which is 6.9%

My total guess stays at 300,000.

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I do acknoledge my model is probably massively underestimating this, and part of that because the confirmed cases underestimate the true number.

 

I'm not convinced it is possible that we can flatten the curve to avoid collapse tbh.

 

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It may well be that HMG's strategy is concentrating on reducing the ICU rate at all costs. Even if one of those costs is more younger/healthier people becoming infected.

 

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Indeed - and conversely, we are supposed to be his "mate" and but he's  "dumped" on us royally.  Not only do we have to endure free flow of Americans we have to  host extra ones as they "flow" through the UK on their way too and from  mainland Europe.  Have we have become an infected "Septic" tank"  ? 

 

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If most healthy people can recover in 5-days or so like Callum Hudson-Odoi has they'll probably think it's worth it to try and lessen the impact from round 2 next winter

There is one thing we need to know which trumps any test results and numbers (which are largely meaningless in terms of the wider population) and that is the actual hospitalisation rate.

 

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This could well be China's great opportunity. Just as they are coming out of this, the west are diving deeper and deeper into trouble. Watch their offers of help going to Africa and friendly nations.

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The confirmed numbers arn't necessarily meaningless even if they are inaccurate provided they are only inaccurate to a constant factor.

 

Anyway I think the truth is HMG recognizes that the efforts of our european counterparts are futile and have no hope of stopping the virus. And even if they do bring it down into remission it will just surge in a 2nd wave.

They may well be right.

 

 

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Important thread with data from Lombardy.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1238452389864263681?s=19 

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Like saving our Steel Industry, Warren.

Jingye to invest £1bn and save 'thousands of British Steel jobs'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50369413

See: Hebei Jingye Group: “Being practical and seeking higher, strive for the first forever.”

http://www.hbjyjt.com/jy000/en/about/index.asp

 

Roger

 

 

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No. of reported cases (global) Vs mortality rate from the 9th up to 8am today:

 

 

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

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That's exactly what we had at lunchtime, which means I get out of travelling to London to run a training course next Wednesday, thank goodness.

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My local chip shop after the pubs close on a Fri night. 

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And up go all the Borders, like a domino affect.

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