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Gandalf The White
13 March 2020 16:46:27


I don't think comparisons with ebola are helpful either. Ebola is a far less contagious but ruthlessly efficient killing machine much more easily managed by sealing off areas. It also is only spreadable when people have symptoms


Originally Posted by: Chidog 


I agree absolutely. Ebola requires very close contact and, as you say, the consequences of catching it are horrendous. The mortality rate is 50% and has varied between 25% and 90%.


Comparisons with Ebola are very unwise; it's completely different. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
13 March 2020 16:49:48


 


Three of the year groups are (11, 12 and 13, or the 16-18 year olds), but the younger year groups less so.


That said, they'll be able to figure it out easily enough. As has been overheard a fair bit, the Google Web apps are like "retro" versions of Word, Excel etc.


It's worth noting as well that when we've made big changes (XP > 7 > 10, Office 2003 > 2007 and onwards) none of the pupils seem to struggle. Some of the staff, on the other hand...


(The staff were being given lessons on it yesterday and today during their "Planning, Prep, Assement" time.)


As I understand it, most schools will be using something like Google or a smaller Virtual Learning Environment. I'm impressed, though, that it's not leaked into the public domain until now! (There have been stories about rolling out e-learning in the local rags, but no mention of that they've been told to do it by the government.)


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, I can imagine some teaching staff being slightly more, how do I put this, exasperating?  


There was a push to roll out G Suite training across the city up here a couple of years ago (with mixed results). I enjoyed the process although the apps seem to change quite regularly (with constant little tweaks).


xioni2
13 March 2020 16:54:48

This could well be China's great opportunity. Just as they are coming out of this, the west are diving deeper and deeper into trouble. Watch their offers of help going to Africa and friendly nations.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


To be fair to them, China sent a team of 9 doctors in Italy and medical supplies including 1.8 million masks to Italy and Spain. 'We' did nothing to help them at their hour of need, in fact many people doubted their data or indulged in conspiracy theories.


 


 

Gandalf The White
13 March 2020 16:55:59


Again I don't understand what is going on. Van Kerkhove at the WHO has just strongly suggested that cases in Asia have peaked, although it will be important to keep on top of things to prevent future increases. However, we are hearing Whitty and Vallance talking about 60% of the UK population going down with this to achieve herd immunity. The difference is cases in the UK amounting to 50,000 and 35 million. 


Edit: Ryan at the WHO has just said the key lesson from Ebola is the "need to act quickly" and "speed trumps perfection". The UK government is out of line with this IMO.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


'Peaked' and 'Herd immunity' are completely different, though, surely?


'Peaked' just means they've got the current outbreak under control. China is keeping a lot of controls in place because the virus is still circulating and that has to be true everywhere, doesn't it?  


The herd immunity threshold, wherever it is (50-60-70-80%) is just the point where you minimise the risk of further epidemics.  


I guess the ideal outcome is that we achieve herd immunity via immunisation not widespread Covid-19 illness.  But that means we have the next year or so to get through.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
13 March 2020 16:59:15


 


To be fair to them, China sent a team of 9 doctors in Italy and medical supplies including 1.8 million masks to Italy and Spain. 'We' did nothing to help them at their hour of need, in fact many people doubted their data or indulged in conspiracy theories.


 


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


If you're Republican Senator Tom Cotton then you're still indulging in conspiracy theories.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
13 March 2020 17:03:51

Is Dwight advising HMG? Watch this and learn.



 

xioni2
13 March 2020 17:08:31


 To  be clear, I'm not trying to downplay   what is going on here but making yourself stressed only weakens your body's   defences and  serves no useful purpose.  For most people in reasonable health, personally,  this is likley to be a non event and getting stressed out is not going to  change the actuality one iota.


 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Joe Bloggs
13 March 2020 17:08:31


 


 


This is an aspect that hasn't really been discussed much.  We have wall-to-wall mainstream media coverage of this - and all kinds of half truths, manufactured garbage, misinterpretation  and the output of "wind-up merchants" on Social Media.


As bad as the situation may be about to get, it will be augmented by widespread panic and people demanding the emergency services for mild symptoms (the kind of thing they wouldn't  bat an eyelid at in normal circumstances).  Add to that psychosomatic illness, nervous breakdowns and high levels of stress.    Is  being "stressed out of your head"   going to affect you driving  ?    Are there going to be more accidents  becuase peoples minds are wandering elsewhere ?


This is a massive topic in its own right, aside from the core story of the unfolding pandemic.


To those of a nervous disposition, I would strongly advice avoiding threads like this one and  aspects of Social Media dealing  with  Coronavirus.  Also swerve the "wall-to-wall"  24-7  news coverage.  Keep up-to-date by visiting the official Govt.  pages periodically and get on with your life.  Go for a run or a walk or do a spot of gardening instead of  being glued to a doom laden screen.


To  be clear, I'm not trying to downplay   what is going on here but making yourself stressed only weakens your body's   defences and  serves no useful purpose.  For most people in reasonable health, personally,  this is likley to be a non event and getting stressed out is not going to  change the actuality one iota.


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


One of the most important posts in the thread IMO. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Maunder Minimum
13 March 2020 17:11:44


Edit: Ryan at the WHO has just said the key lesson from Ebola is the "need to act quickly" and "speed trumps perfection". The UK government is out of line with this IMO.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Ebola is a different virus with a different pathology - the lessons learned there, won't apply with Corona pandemic.


New world order coming.
JHutch
13 March 2020 17:13:58

London Marathon postponed until October 4th

Roger Parsons
13 March 2020 17:14:51

Just noticed "English local elections postponed for a year"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269



Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gavin D
13 March 2020 17:15:12

Italy report 250 new deaths and 2,116 new cases


Total cases 17,660 with 1,266 deaths

Joe Bloggs
13 March 2020 17:16:35

Italy report 250 new deaths and 2,116 new cases

Total cases 14,955 with 1,266 deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Are they only testing people in hospital? 


If not, I doubt our figures will appear as dramatic as that, even if the outbreak is just as bad. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

SJV
13 March 2020 17:20:20


The herd immunity threshold, wherever it is (50-60-70-80%) is just the point where you minimise the risk of further epidemics.  


I guess the ideal outcome is that we achieve herd immunity via immunisation not widespread Covid-19 illness.  But that means we have the next year or so to get through.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I read a thread last night which said the R0 number was likely over 3 which would make the herd immunity figure around 70%.

Roger Parsons
13 March 2020 17:21:28


 


Wishes of the people in late April 2020



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Well, I'm convinced, Xioni!



RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Ulric
13 March 2020 17:22:21

Interesting...



To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
SJV
13 March 2020 17:22:47


Just got back in from one of the most draining afternoons of my 12-year time at the school.


It involved the head, a deputy head and an assistant head, and us 3 IT folks, beavering away on getting Google Classroom up and running. The framework was already there, but populating it, allocating teachers to the 859 different classes that we have and fixing the problems that cropped up was mentally exhausting. (The school didn't seem to realise until today just how handy it is having staff who can handily write scripts in different languages, while juggling SQL queries... fun, but utterly shattering to do.)


While this was going on, all 1700 pupils were being marched in and out of IT rooms to make sure they had their Google login details.


The reason for all this? We'd been told the head of the trust had ordered e-learning to be fully set up for the weekend, with letters going out to parents. Once it became apparent that we'd have to wait for a final sync and bits would just have to wait until Monday (the tool we use takes 5 hours+!) then the full thing came out...


This is from the head herself - the Government has issed an edict to all schools that they MUST have e-learning set up, or "work from home" plans, in place today. They also have to notify parents that this has been done today. It seems they're still planning a shut down but are saying nothing publicly to avoid causing panic.


I suspect there will be other plans afoot as well, but I don't have any info on those!


EDIT: The government edict was issued to every school in the land yesterday. Only heads are meant to know about it, apparently!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Secondary schools, right?


I work in a primary school and you can understand the message at the moment is simply re-stating government advice, how our school is emphasising good hygiene etc etc


We have a Y5 residential in 10 days time (not international though) and parents were naturally full of concerned questions at an after-school meeting yesterday.

Ulric
13 March 2020 17:23:21
This has gone up 200 or so today.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Northern Sky
13 March 2020 17:23:47

This is from the Leeds United forum I go on. The guy who posted it is a sensible chap who I've chatted to for years. Make of it what you will but I suspect it's not far from the truth - 


Been chatting to an NHS consultant friend over lunch. Disclaimer: he votes Tory and reads The Telegraph.
 


There are nowhere near enough beds in intensive care for even a mild epidemic. Even if the peak spreads out between now and the end of June, they will be short of beds by a factor of 10:1


 


The Covid-19 policy is:


 


mild symptoms, any age: stay away from the NHS


 


Severe illness under 65, no co-morbidity (no other illnesses) Admit and treat


 


Severe illness under 65 with co-morbidity: stay at home, to die if necessary. Will not be admitted to hospital


 


Severe illness over 65: Do not come to hospital, stay at home, to die if necessary.


 


I don’t know if all this is true. He is currently Clinical Director of a major department in a large hospital.

JHutch
13 March 2020 17:24:20

Very unusual to see this amount of consistency across different political parties and the remain/leave divide


 


 



The Beast from the East
13 March 2020 17:31:16


 


A nice soundbite, however if you listened to the CSO and CMO you will see the decisions and advice are not political but based on what is seen as the best approach to try to “flatten the curve” to prevent overload of the NHS. Whether non-experts agree that is the best approach is a different issue. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


As sure as night follows day, you come out in defence of the Tory govt you claim not to support


Not all experts agree with Whitty and Vallance, nearly every other Govt in the world does not agree with ours, and who knows what pressure Rasputin is putting on them behind the scenes


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
13 March 2020 17:32:31


Italy report 250 new deaths and 2,116 new cases


Total cases 17,660 with 1,266 deaths


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


You can only feel sorry for the people and the medical stuff


Ally Pally Snowman
13 March 2020 17:36:18


Italy report 250 new deaths and 2,116 new cases


Total cases 17,660 with 1,266 deaths


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


That death toll beats anything that China had. It's almost like we weren't getting the real numbers from China after all?


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
13 March 2020 17:37:57


Secondary schools, right?


Originally Posted by: SJV 


The Head just said "all schools" - no mention of primary or secondary. It was emphasised that the Government had said plans have to be in place (with all of 24 hours' notice!) for learning for everyone to take place from home. I know our academy trust includes primary schools and I know they've been doing something - not sure what, though, I've not had time to check other schools on GSuite today!


Your head would probably know the info. Until today, certainly, the official advice at both primary and secondary was generally bland "wash your hands" sort of stuff.


(I don't know what was actually sent home to parents of the pupils in my school today, I can't see that sort of stuff as I'm not a parent!)


Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
13 March 2020 17:43:34

Last day below 1000 officially confirmed cases


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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