That's where behavioural models come in alongside the other models. You could lock down everything for several months - that would work, if you think your population would accept it. But if they don't, then you risk that huge spike once again.

When this started we only really had to lock down a handful of countries.

If this travel ban response had happened back in January I think we'd be in a far better position.

This is an aspect that hasn't really been discussed much.  We have wall-to-wall mainstream media coverage of this - and all kinds of half truths, manufactured garbage, misinterpretation  and the output of "wind-up merchants" on Social Media.

As bad as the situation may be about to get, it will be augmented by widespread panic and people demanding the emergency services for mild symptoms (the kind of thing they wouldn't  bat an eyelid at in normal circumstances).  Add to that psychosomatic illness, nervous breakdowns and high levels of stress.    Is  being "stressed out of your head"   going to affect you driving  ?    Are there going to be more accidents  becuase peoples minds are wandering elsewhere ?

This is a massive topic in its own right, aside from the core story of the unfolding pandemic.

To those of a nervous disposition, I would strongly advice avoiding threads like this one and  aspects of Social Media dealing  with  Coronavirus.  Also swerve the "wall-to-wall"  24-7  news coverage.  Keep up-to-date by visiting the official Govt.  pages periodically and get on with your life.  Go for a run or a walk or do a spot of gardening instead of  being glued to a doom laden screen.

To  be clear, I'm not trying to downplay   what is going on here but making yourself stressed only weakens your body's   defences and  serves no useful purpose.  For most people in reasonable health, personally,  this is likley to be a non event and getting stressed out is not going to  change the actuality one iota.

I see the merit in the UK strategy, but I'm still slightly uncomfortable with it regarding the numbers and the ability of the health system to cope especially if there's localised flare ups of high dependency cases.

Reported in The Times

"The South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo quoted an unidentified government source, who said: “Intelligence analysis suggests that Kim Jong-un has been away from Pyongyang for a considerable time. This appears to be connected with the coronavirus outbreak.”"

Odd behaviour, considering NK has no official cases

Bolsonaro: 'I've tested negative'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51866403

COVID-19: temporarily allow parents to remove children from school without repercussions

Sign here

Looks like I'll be WFH next week and the week after I have a week off anyway.

Absolutely, it appears that there are some on here who are getting quite stressed about it. If that is the case then this thread and social media in general is best avoided. The ‘reality’ in here is so different from my real ‘reality’ and I’d imagine that’s the same for a lot of people. 

I believe a GP on LBC this afternoon summed up the government’s approach very well..... “They are treating the economy as the patient not the people”

That may be the sensible course of action longer term. Look at Italy - their economy is being smashed to pieces at the moment.

Governments have to think ahead and make hard decisions based on the utilitarian aspects of what is best for the nation as a whole looking one to two years down the line. No consolation to those who are desperately affected or who lose loved ones in the short term, but who can say how the picture will look in a couple of years?

P.S. The WHO have an unerring Basil Fawlty ability to state the bleedin' obvious days after the reality:

"BreakingEurope now 'epicentre' of the pandemic, says WHO

The head of the World Health Organization says that Europe is now the "epicentre" of the Covid-19 pandemic."

A nice soundbite, however if you listened to the CSO and CMO you will see the decisions and advice are not political but based on what is seen as the best approach to try to “flatten the curve” to prevent overload of the NHS. Whether non-experts agree that is the best approach is a different issue. 

The rumours about BA slashing jobs appear true:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51875271

Again I don't understand what is going on. Van Kerkhove at the WHO has just strongly suggested that cases in Asia have peaked, although it will be important to keep on top of things to prevent future increases. However, we are hearing Whitty and Vallance talking about 60% of the UK population going down with this to achieve herd immunity. The difference is cases in the UK amounting to 50,000 and 35 million. 

Edit: Ryan at the WHO has just said the key lesson from Ebola is the "need to act quickly" and "speed trumps perfection". The UK government is out of line with this IMO.

Time will tell.

I don't think comparisons with ebola are helpful either. Ebola is a far less contagious but ruthlessly efficient killing machine much more easily managed by sealing off areas. It also is only spreadable when people have symptoms

The point Ryan at the WHO made was about learning from previous epidemics. His answer was nuanced and he said it is important not to extrapolate too much or too little. He was not comparing the symptoms etc. I know some journalists have been taking things out of context wrt Ebola so perhaps that is what you are referring to.

Indeed - I saw something on this last week.

On a different note, I thought Bojo looked rough yesterday when he made his speech, certainly even by his standards

Just got back in from one of the most draining afternoons of my 12-year time at the school.

It involved the head, a deputy head and an assistant head, and us 3 IT folks, beavering away on getting Google Classroom up and running. The framework was already there, but populating it, allocating teachers to the 859 different classes that we have and fixing the problems that cropped up was mentally exhausting. (The school didn't seem to realise until today just how handy it is having staff who can handily write scripts in different languages, while juggling SQL queries... fun, but utterly shattering to do.)

While this was going on, all 1700 pupils were being marched in and out of IT rooms to make sure they had their Google login details.

The reason for all this? We'd been told the head of the trust had ordered e-learning to be fully set up for the weekend, with letters going out to parents. Once it became apparent that we'd have to wait for a final sync and bits would just have to wait until Monday (the tool we use takes 5 hours+!) then the full thing came out...

This is from the head herself - the Government has issed an edict to all schools that they MUST have e-learning set up, or "work from home" plans, in place today. They also have to notify parents that this has been done today. It seems they're still planning a shut down but are saying nothing publicly to avoid causing panic.

I suspect there will be other plans afoot as well, but I don't have any info on those!

EDIT: The government edict was issued to every school in the land yesterday. Only heads are meant to know about it, apparently!

Are the kids familiar with using it though? My pupils have been using it regularly for the past three years or so and hopefully will be au fait with it should the need arise to use it even more extensively.

It will but I am trying to understand the thinking on both sides of the fence. I don't understand why there is such a massive disparity.

Three of the year groups are (11, 12 and 13, or the 16-18 year olds), but the younger year groups less so.

That said, they'll be able to figure it out easily enough. As has been overheard a fair bit, the Google Web apps are like "retro" versions of Word, Excel etc.

It's worth noting as well that when we've made big changes (XP > 7 > 10, Office 2003 > 2007 and onwards) none of the pupils seem to struggle. Some of the staff, on the other hand...

(The staff were being given lessons on it yesterday and today during their "Planning, Prep, Assement" time.)

As I understand it, most schools will be using something like Google or a smaller Virtual Learning Environment. I'm impressed, though, that it's not leaked into the public domain until now! (There have been stories about rolling out e-learning in the local rags, but no mention of that they've been told to do it by the government.)

Probably just because at this stage no-one has the answers only their most evidence-based educated guess. For different people different interpretations will lead to different actions and views.