I genuinely have no idea what you are on about.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I think we are having crossed wires here Justin. My point is not that they should not react to a death toll but that their currently strategy should not be judged on it.

A high death toll is evidence which can provide a basis for forming future steps but not is not evidence for suggesting the existing strategy is not the correct one as there is no way of knowing if the death toll is a result of past action. Sure, you can guess but that’s all it is.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Try harder. It wasn't a difficult point to grasp.

Some of your contributions have become quite bizarre of late.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

One thing is for sure if they ( V & W ) are wrong they will be thrown in the back of a van and taken on a long drive and of course give Boris a get out clause IMO

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Try harder. It wasn't a difficult point to grasp.

Some of your contributions have become quite bizarre of late.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

There are many more people who've had input into this strategy than these two people, of course. They have been guided by experts relevant to this situation, and those involved are not just the best in epidemiology in this country, but some of best in their field globally. 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

You really have become the most obnoxious and condescending poster of late. I don’t know what is going on at home but perhaps you should seek some form of help. 

In your quest to sneer at anybody who expresses concern about the divergence of UK health policy from the rest of the world, you have jumped down my throat and suggested that I think there is a one-size solution to the crisis. I said no such thing. 

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I'm told this is being circulated privately by NHS management. It suggests a death rate of between 2% and 10%. (Open the image in a new tab to read more clearly)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'm told this is being circulated privately by NHS management. It suggests a death rate of between 2% and 10%. (Open the image in a new tab to read more clearly)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Two completely new pieces of information there that haven't been shared before:

1. Takes up to four weeks until symptoms show - previously it was said to be mostly 14 days


2. The virus can survive for up to NINE days - previously it was said to be three.


3. 14% reinfection rate

Some of the others are different (worse) as well.

Do we know that this is authentic?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

   Just to add, because someone no doubt had measles or chicken pox twice!  There may be the odd case of someone getting it again, just as with any viral infection, although it’s rare and second time round symptoms tend to be less severe. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Authentic NHS documentation has the NHS logo on it and tends not to use American spelling and terminology. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Do we know that this is authentic?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm told this is being circulated privately by NHS management. It suggests a death rate of between 2% and 10%. (Open the image in a new tab to read more clearly)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You need to read your own contributions Justin. As I've already said, you are supercilious and toss out needlessly unpleasant one-liners that do absolutely nothing to help the tone of the thread.

I'm absolutely fine; just immensely frustrated by some of the nonsense being written here.  If you don't like it then you have the 'ignore' button and I suggest you use it rather than posting more inaccurate rubbish.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm told this is being circulated privately by NHS management. It suggests a death rate of between 2% and 10%. (Open the image in a new tab to read more clearly)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

One thing is for sure if they ( V & W ) are wrong they will be thrown in the back of a van and taken on a long drive and of course give Boris a get out clause IMO

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I think it's fake but will adress each one based on the best avalible data.

CFR is not as high as 10% and it may be lower than 2%. I'd put a sensible range at 1%-6% (still very difficult to say and will depend on which country you are in).

Serious 15-20% sounds plausible

5% ICU sounds plausible but possibly low. I'd put an upper limit on at least 10% though.

60% of world population is plausible but the uncertainty is extremely high. Could be higher, could be much much lower.

R0 of 3-6 is a bit high. It can be as low as under 1.5 (e.g SK/Singapore). Mostly it seems to be around 2.5-3.

Aeorlized transmission is possible but unlikely to be the main vector of transmission.

Doubling every 3 days without lockdowns is plausible, is a bit slower than that though when measures are put in place

9 day survival on hard surfaces seems high. Only in ideal conditions would it survive that long. On most everyday hard surfaces virus becomes inviable after a few days, and it can often be much less than a day on softer surfaces or when the temperature is high.

Possible but unlikely. Viral shedding becomes extremely low once symptoms have gone, people may test positive but it seems unlikely they are really that infectious. People are highly infectious though just before developing symptoms and just after.

Doctors and nurses seem more vulnerable than the general population. Likely stress+higher viral load.

Yes but testing positive again doesn't mean redeveloping symptoms.

The last part is true. ERs are very often overloaded.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Two completely new pieces of information there that haven't been shared before:

1. Takes up to four weeks until symptoms show - previously it was said to be mostly 14 days


2. The virus can survive for up to NINE days - previously it was said to be three.


3. 14% reinfection rate

Some of the others are different (worse) as well.

Do we know that this is authentic?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I spoke to my sister this morning and Greece is taking such a different approach from here. Even though their number of known cases and deaths is still low, they have now closed malls, big stores, restaurants, cafes, bars, clubs, cinemas, theatres, gyms, museums, hair salons, playgrounds, brothels, you name it. Only takeaway/delivery outlets, supermarkets and pharmacies remain open but with restrictions on the numbers of people allowed inside (only 2 at a time in a chemist etc.). All sporting and cultural events have been cancelled.

They are terrified of the possible impact on their NHS, which has been devastated after the 10-year crisis. It sounds like an extreme reaction to me, but I just don't know. My sister is gobsmacked by HMG's reaction here and she says we are too complacent and are taking a huge gamble. She joked that I should get out now, while there is still time.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

France latest country to go full lockdown.  This will happen here it has to happen here it is the only way to slow/stop this disease. Otherwise we won't just be italy we will be Iran. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman