Yes. As I mentioned that is happening around here too. 

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Data I used is available here:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Although I haven't calculated up the mortality rate of each country/continent. Will do this later if someone hasn't done so in the meantime. 

 

Meanwhile, 'Conservative' American pundits are increasingly of the mind that 'Communist China' is covering up actual data. These people are truly vile and the guy in the video, Jack Posobeic, is a known purveyor of 'fake news',

https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1238938806436253696

 

yet his audience continues to gobble up his BS. He actually 'blocked' me a couple of years ago for calling him out on his ill-informed nonsense. It was a proud moment 

 

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Why? He and everyone here is entitled to their opinion.

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Wales 94 cases, up 34.

 

His points are valid, though. 

Besides, for those opposed to this malevolent government, we need to take any opportunity to turn public opinion against them.

The right-wing will whine about their opponents politicising this, but they would have no compunction to do the same if the boot were on the other foot.

 

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I hope so. They should have done so during the London riots of 2011. They could have solved the crime problem in Croydon in one night

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Railway companies now looking for a bailout

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896169 

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Spotted Dick in the post above tells me not to mention politics, but this is all about politics and decisions. 

Lisa Nandy was excellent on Marr today. I have already voted for her

We need to bring this stupid leadership contest to a close ASAP

 

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If the public (as much in other countries as here) were told how long any general lockdown (not self isolation for those with symptoms) needs to last to be truly effective they may be less likely to comply. Tell them “just another couple of weeks” and they may be more likely to follow the instructions.

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True but that wont last very long ,faith will be lost , you can't be saying " just two more weeks "

I'd rather know the full extent 

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Anyone with half a brain must know that things are not going to be back to normal in April

Premier league is not going to start on April 4 and probably will be written off. Liverpool should be handed the title but wont be allowed to celebrate it in public

 

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Is this the totally ‘open and transparent’ approach we are being told HMG are adopting though? 
It seems the populace isn’t ready for the truth just yet.

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yes, I suppose it is amusing to see how bitter and twisted these corbynistas are 

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Well we know they don't handle the truth well. Just look at Brexit!

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I am not sure any of the official guidelines I have seen are suggesting those timescales. The message from Westminster (what there is of it), from Stormont and Holyrood all suggest 16 weeks or 4 months. It would be brave person to say it at this stage whether it is truthful and transparent or not. 

It is a uniform message between the politically diametrically opposed Scottish and U.K. governments which highlights the nature and motivation of some of the contributions here. Jeanne Freeman was just this morning giving more or less exactly the same line as the U.K. government.

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Me too. When I run my own projection, it seems the wave will peak in April and the infection rate by then will be astronomic. Expecting to re-open in late March seems counter intuitive.

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I don't like the sound of that

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It’s a pandemic, which by definition means it’s new to everybody, so nobody knows how long it will last and therefore nobody can put a timescale on anything.  I’m pretty sure the experts aren’t expecting it to be over soon, hence the sense in delaying lockdown measures because once we’re in lockdown, we’re in for the long haul.

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Today's figures are delayed and will be published later this afternoon

This is why I don’t think they’ll close schools before the Easter holidays, then the holidays buy them another two weeks to see how things go before a school closure decision has to be made.

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I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we will see the start of an improvement in Europe at the start of April. The lockdown in Italy and other places will surely improve things as it did in China.
Rumours that we're going into full lockdown tomorrow.

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In the meantime lots of kids are already being taken out of school - makes no sense 

6 families in my street have taken their children out of school , informing the schools they will look again after the Easter holidays 

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That sounds like the most sensible approach 

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That's what logarithmic progression would suggest, i.e. if things carry on exactly as they are. (They're won't, almost certainly, as more measures get put into place to limit gatherings etc).

Let's use Spain as an example.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

If you extrapolate that "number of cases" graph, viewed logarithmically, you get:

10K cases - 16th/17th March

100K cases - 23rd March

1M cases - 30th March

10M cases - 7th April

Or, in other words, going up by a factor of 10 each week.

In reality, that won't happen - but it is what a pure logarithmic curve looks like.

(It's also why they're trying to flatten said curve!)

EDIT: We're on roughly a 10-day "order of magnitude" increase. Again, if that continues indefinitely (and it won't!), that would mean:

10K cases - 24th March, 100K cases - 3rd April, 1M cases - 13th April, 10M cases - 23rd April.

I suspect we'll see strong action to isolate things before we hit 100K, if not 10-20K.

Again - please note these are just raw numbers, they're not a forecast of what will actually happen!

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